PM quits after UK votes to leave EU in historic Brexit referendum >>>MOD WARNING<<<

Agreed on all points.

I, too, hope the EU doesn't do anything too ridiculous to the UK in this, but EU officials have clearly stated that the exit agreement will need to be something that will cause other nations to think twice about. They can't afford it to look like an attractive option.

 

Like freedom to access proper health care. That lasted all of 30 minutes following the result.

[video=youtube;kP1USSOn9rA]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kP1USSOn9rA[/video]

 

I agree that accessing large markets is very important but accessing those markets does not have to be dependent on any political association and I believe that was the sentiment behind this vote. NAFTA and CAFTA are trade associations which are apolitical, other countries are wanting to join, and not met with a great deal of protest from its participants.

 

I believe that in addition to this vote being one based upon immigration, the real issue is that this is about economics and more specifically, modern economics as it has been practiced since Reagan and Thatcher blew up Keynes and replaced him with Freidman as the guide to economic success. This is a statement much like the ones your kids say as the game of Monopoly is winding down and a clear winner is obvious. Running the world's economies should not end up looking like the ending of a Monopoly game. The key is to keep the game going forever and that means redistribution, there is no other way to smooth out the results of a capitalist system.

 

While the dust settles, hopefully there will be very little punishing of the fifth largest economy in the World that sits on the EU's doorstep. Masochism and economics are rarely logical bedfellows. The EU simply cannot afford it. Especially with what is coming in the near future following Brexit.

 

I hear you, by as I am sure you are aware, the EU is not merely a trade association. It is much, much, more than that. Free movement of people and investment in underdeveloped regions being the obvious example. The TTIP is also looking less, and less, likely to be ratified by the EU. The potential erosion of consumer rights, and a myriad of other positive EU initiatives, will not be tolerated in my opinion.

 

Well, the UK is now the 6th largest as a direct result of Brexit. Maybe it will bounce back if things settle out well.

I'm not so sure I know what's coming next. I heard a radio program where an analyst was talking about some of the issues that need to be resolved - a list that hit me as surprisingly long and unlikely to be easy. How many of these will have an economic impact? I don't know. But, the uncertainty alone is likely to be a negative factor.

My bet is that Scotland and Ireland are both at least as interested in being EU as they are in being UK. We might actually get a united Ireland out of this!!

I agree that the business world doesn't do well when there is a "punishment" mentality, but there is also a "survival" angle to this.

 

Exactly. Human rights, democracy, environmental standards, etc., etc., are not a concern.

 

And this 'free movement of people' contributed a great deal to the 'leave' vote.

I don't know much about TIPP but there was a great deal of hysteria, no exaggeration, prior to both NAFTA and CAFTA being agreed upon but all those fears have proven to be unfounded.

 

Of course they are a concern to everyone and these are addressed within the agreements. As people become better educated we see improvements in all those areas.

 

Now, now, don't forget to put the - Northern - in front of Ireland there at the start of that sentence. You could start an international incident!

Seriously though, the possible impact on the Northern peace process of any hint of a reinstatement of a land border between Ireland and Northern Ireland is what concerns me the most. Following Brexit, this border will potentially become the only border in the EU without any border controls. Sinn Fein (Irish Republicans) have already called for a referendum on a United Ireland. This is the first time this has happened since the Good Friday Agreement of 1999.

The DUP (main Northern Irish Unionist party) have been playing with fire in this regard. They actively backed Brexit. Why? I still can't fathom, as it will almost certainly lead to the breakup of the UK, with a proposed second Scottish independence referendum. You have to understand that Farage and Boris's only concern is England, and to a lesser extent Wales. Trust me on this, if there is a hint of a border check put back on the Irish/NI border there will be a sector of the Provisional IRA that will become active again. For the last decade and a half, to present day, you can cross the border into Northern Ireland and you would only know you have cross it if you could recognise the difference in road sign colours.

Bottom line, 50% of the Northern Irish population are Irish citizens, with Irish passports. They will not take lightly to being run solely by a London government. Especially one run by English nationalists like Boris and his friends. It is not just the Irish Nationalist population that will be affected. The EU part funds the many very successful cross border economic and social initiatives that have been a benefit to everyone in NI. Lest we forget that NI voted to stay in the EU in this referendum, and it wasn't just Irish Nationalists who voted to stay in.

But like everything regarding this tumultuous event, there is no reason that the issues cannot be resolved via diplomatic means. At no point in the long and proud history of these islands, has there ever been a period of better relations between Ireland and the old enemy! I believe we will all find a way, as with much of the other doom and gloom scenarios associated with Brexit. Or maybe this optimism is merely the late night Guinness I am enjoying currently!

 

Know a lot of non-fascist holocaust deniers do ya?

 

No other block of 700 million people on this planet has a unified set of democratic rights and standards that compare to what every citizen in the EU enjoys. I am not saying these standards are better than other countries, just that there is nothing on this scale. It is the very essence of what makes the EU so attractive to all the states that are cued up to join the EU.

The sustained peace between such fierce former enemies, is something I think that often non-Europeans don't fully understand. Yes, there is a rise across the continent of scepticism in the EU. Often well founded. But the UK has always been a special case in this regard, and I am going to put this satirical video here again to comically point to how the UK has always had a slight different approach to Europe than the rest of the members of the EU. Others may well leave in the future. But Blighty has always been a special case!

[video=youtube_share;37iHSwA1SwE]http://youtu.be/37iHSwA1SwE[/video]

 

The problem is that the E.U. is fundamentally flawed as the only way it could work is if the E.U. was a single nation and it is obvious that there still remains way too much European Nationalism.

AA

 

The EU has been in existence for almost 60 years. This is not the first, nor will it be the last, crisis it faces.

 

Look....let's face it....the E.U. and it's structure of membership have very serious issues.

Every E.U. Nation is always fighting and bickering and nothing really get's done unless the U.S. get's involved.

Look at what happened in Bosnia in the back yard of the E.U.?

People were being systematically murdered by the ten's of thousands and no one in the E.U. did anything until the U.S got involved.

The worse part is the infighting for leadership as Germany and France are always fighting over who run's the show

AA

 

Interesting! I'm thinking that these decisions (break with the UK by Scotland and/or Ireland, EU membership, uniting Ireland) will probably be made sequentially in some possibly random order - not as one big realignment.

I just can't believe that either Scotland or "part of" Ireland will want to be ruled by the UK and not be part of the EU. It's perhaps a large assumption on my part, but I would think that for them the EU was somewhat of a moderating factor in the pre-Brexit world, while the immediate future will be fully UK centric - which I would think might emphasize the issues between them.

 

Yes - they do have very real issues, and the fact that they are individual nations that share one currency is significant.

I do think your analysis is too US and military centric, though. The requirement for close economic cooperation within Europe is huge, and we're not talking about the end of NATO.

 

So breaking up the EU was planned all along. Oh those fiendish English, Germany never had a chance did it?

[video=youtube;W_QuFx_emng]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W_QuFx_emng[/video]

 

I couldn't agree with you more regarding the seriousness of this event. I believe that the referendum is one of the single most important political votes in my lifetime. And it didn't even happen in my country. I also agree about the failings of the EU concerning the Baltic conflict. 200,000+ deaths on the continent of Europe, and the lack of unified action from the EU, is the lowest point in the union.

Regarding infighting between Germany and France, I suggest you look to the 1940's for what actual conflict between these two great powers results in. It was out of the horrors of WW2 that Europe decided to unite and pledge to never return to such oblivion. All political systems have internal conflicts, some more bitter than others. Show me a powerful entities that hasn’t had disregard for the lives of people who are on the outside. It is what is achieved between nations who come together that is what matters in this instance.

The EU's history has been more about actual union than division. Millions of people's lives have changed for the better. No System is perfect. Just take one look at what is currently happening on the opposite side of the Atlantic from Europe, and the depths of hatred and division that is personified in the current US election. Polarisation and isolation is not a progressive way for dealing with the problems that we all face in the World. The people of the UK have voted to leave the EU. They are not the only European country to be outside the EU. Norway and Switzerland have perfectly good relations and trade with the EU. The UK, in whatever form it eventually takes, will be no different. It will be a bumpy road for them, but they will be fine. They are an industrious nation, always have been. The sky will not fall in and Europe will continue to get along. As we have been doing so for decades.

 

I am just thinking about how Europe finally had a chance to join together and that is important considering their history and they just could not make it work.

The U.K. is just the first of other nations that may leave.

AA

 

Understand I am all for an E.U.....I just cannot believe they would screw this up.

Changes could have been made that would have allowed the U.K. to remain.

But as per freakin' usual....they couldn't get it done.

AA

 

Belief has nothing to do with it. Northern Ireland and Scotland voted to stay in the EU two days ago. You make a good point about the UK centric focus of matters for the immediate future of both Scotland and NI. There is real fury in Scotland that the English have essential fúcked them over. Yet, they had their chance to put their own destiny in their own hands two years ago and they passed up on it. Now they have to start the independence process all over again, and who knows obstacles might scupper their plans again.

No one foresaw Brexit happening. Absolutely no one. I actually believe that most in the Brexit camp didn't foresee it either. They campaigned for it. They wanted it. But right up until about 2.00am on Friday morning, every conceivable metric over the three year campaign indicated that they were going to fail. The Leave campaign was a political masterstroke. One which the US Democrats are currently browning their pants over!

 

For sure. Leaving the EU for other nations is one thing. Leaving the Eurozone is something altogether different. Even after the battering Greece took, with all the left of center rhetoric, they still knew it was prudent for them stay in the EZ.

 

The UK is going to suffer a lot over the next few months.

companies will start leaving.

the Pound will collapse more.

investments will be cancelled and moved to Europe and Ireland.

it will be a very long time before the UK sees any benefits from this, if ever.