ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 184,000 Jobs in March; Annual

You said grandma and grandpa have to work because of Biden. Let's see the charts.

 

That data is readily available.
https://www.officialdata.org/us/inf...average,Labor Statistics consumer price index.

The graph "Buying power of the dollar over time" shows no change in gradient at the moment Biden took office. In fact the buying power rate drop has been stable since around 1985. Have you still got a straight face?

 

So you mean to tell me that you haven't noticed prices have gone up?

It is absolutely undeniable that the price of nearly everything has gone up tremendously in the last 3 years. Did you even bother looking at the calculator at the link? For your convenience I put in 2020 versus 2024, below are the results.

1 in 2020 is equivalent in purchasing power to about $1.20 today, an increase of $0.20 over 4 years. The dollar had an average inflation rate of 4.64% per year between 2020 and today, producing a cumulative price increase of 19.90%.

This means that today's prices are 1.20 times as high as average prices since 2020, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics consumer price index. A dollar today only buys 83.333% of what it could buy back then.

 

Unemployment
Well, that depends on what you are needing it for. You see, for many years the calculation for unemployment and CPI was done differently. The method used for unemployment was changed in 1993 under Clinton and has resulted in the largest discontinuity in the number. So if you try to compare the unemployment rate today to the published numbers in say 1979 you will have to dramatically increase today's numbers. The adjustment isn't a straight weighted equation. As an example a 3% unemployment number now compares to about 8.3% unemployment rate pre-1993. A 6% unemployment number compares to about 16.1%. A 9% unemployment rate would theoretically compare to about 29%. It's rather complicated and intended to be normalized to the 1993 number. It is best not to try to compare today's number to those prior to 1993. Our current unemployment rate is published at 3.9%. I would strongly note however the unemployment number is a horrible statistic to use to estimate the labor market. The employment rate is a better estimate in most cases depending on what you are interested in. You also have to be careful how people with a dog in the fight cherry pick the data. For instance just prior to COVID we had the lowest numbers since Eisenhower and Post WWII Truman. No good data really exists for much prior to that although some have attempted to piece together what it might have been based on less concrete estimates. Within weeks of COVID the number shot up as millions of Americans had to stay home and the government sent out tons of checks without even verifying they recipients were American. We now know the unemployment offices gave out $1.4 Trillion to overseas accounts in response to what were obviously fraudulent claims. Mainly to Russia, China, and Eastern European filings from places like Hungary and Romania. Any numbers around the time of COVID are worthless.

Inflation
The BLS and FRED and others publish inflation data. The method for calculating this number varies literally every single year and is thoroughly misleading even for year to year comparisons. Surprisingly enough, they do this to actually hold down inflation by holding down wage increases resulting from increases in the published numbers for inflation. Confusing huh? To clear up what this is about, labor unions (which includes government workers) don't have to wait for inflation to creep up before they finally demand a pay raise. Union workers, government workers, and SS recipients get automatic cost-of-living-allowances on a regular basis. So if the published inflation number goes up, their wages immediately rise. This isn't true for most workers, but the effect is impactful on the government budget. So they basically adjust the calculation very often. While the changes in the calculation may be subjective, in every case the change is objective in that it ALWAYS has the objective of lowering the result. For instance the first year under Biden they decided including increases in fuel costs were misleading as these increases were presumably including in the increased costs of other goods. The following year they excluded food and housing increases as food prices soared (hilarious). On subsequent years as food prices hit a ceiling they will factor food back in using the price points from those peaks.

Milton Friedman to the rescue. There really isn't much need to even calculate CPI. The number you are interested in can be calculated directly from the money supply. CPI is basically a sampling of price data for a selected basket of goods. These short term samplings can help to identify short term consumer spending habits. This is referred to as "VELOCITY" of money. Velocity is basically the number of times the average dollar is spent during a year. When consumers rush out and spend frequency your average dollar may turn over as much as 7 times per year so the velocity would be 7. During other times consumers for whatever reason cut back on spending and this can drop to as low as 2 or 3. Velocity (averages about 4 or 5) essentially makes it appear as if there is more money chasing the available goods. As velocity goes up, inflation goes up. As velocity goes down inflation will lessen. But none of this has any long term effects on the inflation rate. The true inflation rate is caused by one thing and one thing only... printing money, sometimes called monetizing the debt. If the government increases the money supply by 25%, inflation will be about 25%. If the government increases the money supply by 50% inflation will be 50%. Of course the inflation caused by increases in the money supply normally takes about 18 months to show up in pricing. To picture this, imagine the government increases the money supply (M2) by 25 percent every year. What you would see when you look at a chart of inflation would be a middle point rising by 25% every year with short duration swings above and below this 25% slope caused by velocity. If consumers exhibited steady spending habits these up and down velocity cycles would not appear and you would be left with a straight line where prices increased by a steady 25% per year.

Now let me head off a slew of objections. The above is intended to simplify the reality of what causes inflation. Technically, the inflation rate is the change in M2/change in production. So if the government increases M2 by 2% and production increases by 2% then you would have 1.02/1.02 and no inflation would result. So technically you have to adjust slightly for production increases. Below is a historical chart of M2.

https://www.shadowstats.com/imgs/charts/m2-2006.gif?hl=ad

If you take the red line data and divide it by the increase in GDP (or decrease) you will know what the inflation rate will be in about 18 months time (excluding short term velocity surges which again cancel out over a few months). Increases in GDP tend to be around 0 to 3%. Productivity increases are much harder to accomplish than increases using the printing press. If GDP falls into the negative range it is a recession.

In the linked graph you can see a large 23% increase in M2 in 2020 when COVID hit hardest. What this meant was we could expect a 23% increase in prices in the first half of 2021 due to COVID. After COVID was behind us, increases in M2 should have dropped back down to normal levels. It would be reasonable to expect sharp rises in GDP as well as everyone started back to work. However, Biden not only maintained Trump's COVID level printing, he increased it dramatically. The price increases you sensed are apparent. The first surge in prices was due to COVID and were a factor during Trumps final year and 6 months into Biden's term. With 3.5% growth in GDP this meant an increase in prices of about 18-20% attributable to COVID during this final Trump year. Since that time Biden has continued to increase the money supply by about 32-39% per year. GDP increases have been exceptional however as everyone returned to work and supply chain issues were lessened. This means the inflation rate due to Biden has been about 27-35% since mid-year 2021 with some of these increases yet to come. Starting next fiscal year (October) Biden will start running increased deficits of $400-500 Billion every month. This will result in an uptick in inflation around the middle of 2025 through the following year

If you had the actual table data you could integrate the curve to find the average increase in M2. Divide this by the GDP increases and it would tell you exactly what the inflationary impact was (and will be) excluding short-term velocity effects. Just looking at the graph I would estimate the average inflation under Biden to be somewhere in the region of 30-32%. A very rough graphical guess. If you were being VERY generous you might see 27-30%.

1.3 X 1.3 X 1.3 = 2.197

So you should have seen prices basically double due to the Biden administrations monetary policies. With some of the impact still to come in the coming year. Understand, these increases in the money supply (inflation) is basically nothing more than a tax. Rather than having to vote to increase our taxes they just print the money. It is free to them, but not free to the American taxpayers. The money they print ends up being directly paid for over and 18 month span through increases in the prices we pay for EVERYTHING. Unfortunately, inflation doesn't impact the government or the wealthy like it does the middle class and the poor. The poor end up paying a higher percentage of the inflation tax than any other group. Some of the uber wealthy actually benefit from the inflation tax. It is like a tax break for them, helping to offset the ridiculous tax rates they must pay under the progressive tax code. Only between 25 and 35% of our government spending is funded through the tax code. The remaining 65% is done through the inflation tax. Congress loves doing it this way. It allows them to buy votes from the poor who don't understand how it hurts them and prevents them from every gaining ground. Congress also doesn't have to vote on it, as the government will always print whatever money is needed to cover government overspending.

P.S. The number of people entering the job market increases by about 275-300K per month. Basically this is due to more younger people entering the job market. This is why if the jobs report indicates a 300K job increase they employment rate will be unchanged. In other words as the population grows, so will the number of jobs in the economy. So the ~150K jobs added is quite dismal. Politicians love to emphasize this number precisely because it fools the public into thinking things are improving. This essentially means the employment rate is going down. Note too, this explains why average wages increased. This is because those who are still employed tend to be higher wage workers. When you lose the low wage jobs the average wage increases. This is likely due to influx of immigrant workers. That is what I found funny with the OP and others responses.

 

No one is denying that prices are going up. Do you want deflation? Is your wage now the same as it was in 2020? The graph in the link I provided showed that the drop rate in the buying power of the dollar has not significantly changed since 1985

 

Don't use CPI. CPI is only calculated in order to determine how much government wages are automatically increased. So the government purposefully wants to skew the number low. There is little need to use their basket of goods sampling other than to provide a means of reporting lower than reality inflation numbers.

In 1985 I could buy a soda out of a machine for 0.25$. Some of the more expensive machines and convenience stores were $0.35. Now it's pretty much near $3.00. Everything has had similar increases. Especially lately. And prices actually should have fallen if the government wasn't printing and spending money like a drunken sailor. Most not on stuff we would spend our money on. This is because without increases in M2 then production improvements would result in prices falling. For instance, the amount of labor and resources required to make a loaf of bread is about 25% of what it was in 1985. So without the printing press the cost of a loaf of bread would have FALLEN by 75%.

 

I don't think deflation is such a bad thing. It is actually a natural result stemming from increases in production efficiency. For instance, the price of a computer regularly falls to a fraction of the cost/performance ratio. It causes no real problems and is actually a benefit. Unless you WANT to pay more for a computer. Some say deflation is horrible. This is due to the housing market. If you have deflation, people would be much more reluctant to have their main investment in their house. This is because if you bought a house for 300,000 with no inflation it would be worth what you paid for it and no more. In fact, when the price of your house goes up, it really doesn't make you any money at all. On paper it seems like it is a profit. But the reality is the increase in the price of your home merely buys you what you could have before the inflation. It is a net wash. However, the government taxes you on that increase so it actually costs you some buying power. Normally you want stable prices so increases in M2 should track to increases in GDP.

 

https://www.shadowstats.com/imgs/charts/m2-2006.gif?hl=ad

Basically read the numbers off the right side of this graph and divide it by the increase in GDP. This will give you the true inflation rate. For example the latest numbers for July 2023 are about 33%. GDP has increased by 4.9%. So the true inflation rate at the end of 2024 will be

~33/1.05 = 31.4%

Here is a great video which explains it in very simple language.

https://duckduckgo.com/?t=ffab&q=mi...i=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B_nGEj8wIP0

If you don't have time to watch his entire lecture skip to 10 minutes into the video.

 

Well, then so is the wage growth. MASSIVE. LOL

Don't be afraid to share your data

Yes, seriously. People used to fund their retirement from Pension + Social Security + Personal Savings, where pensions played such big part that retirees were called "pensioners". Now pensions have been removed, and most people have not replaced it with anything. Having "personal accounts" was a conservative idea, and it works for some, but it fails most.

No, it answers the question, and lot of retirees are screwed no matter what the state of the economy is, and they have only themselves to blame. Whoever planned to retire on SS alone is a fool, because it was never meant to be the sole source of income for retirees in the age of private accounts like 401K. Trying to blame that on whoever sits in the WH is ignorant as hell. That problem started in the 1980s, so people had plenty of time to prepare. You, like any other socialist, thinks the government should pay for everyone's retirement. That's now the system we have.

 

Anyone who counts only good data and excludes bad data can't be reasoned with. Presidency is 4 years, not 3.

Your bill for goods and services shows the "real" jobs data? The thread is about jobs, not about you paying 10 cents more for milk.

Its fun watching you scream every time there is some positive news.

That'll make him even more angry.

The question was about buying power. You are fixated on price, and ignore people's ability to afford it. If incomes increase on pace with prices, the affordability stays same. I have a rental property, and I hiked the rent by $700, and it helps me afford plenty of milk and gasoline.

The topic is jobs, and your response is: "BUT.........price of milk......gas......"

 

here i am

Job cuts jump to highest level since January 2023

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/job-cuts-jump-highest-level-january-2023


but let's continue to tell the folks that things are just swell. Since you are more about team Democrat than team regular folks, good luck pissing on their legs and telling them it's raining. The folks aren't stupid.

 

FaUX ? Isn't that the network that caught deliberately lieing to it's viewers ? Even if they are accidentally accurate, it would be better to quote a credible source.
Otherwise, readers might think you are pissing on their legs and telling them it's rain.
The folks aren't stupid.

 

they quote experts and name the experts who track this

or, just pull the typical Democrat voter BS and carry on

I feel sorry for you

 

And for those who are shrieking "government lies" about the ADP report: ADP (Automatic Data Processing, Inc.) is a publicly traded company, which specializes in providing human resources, payroll etc services for a lot of US corporations (about 20% of all private US companies). They have nothing to do with the government, they simply provide their jobs report based on the data have from their clients. The government provides their own report on 1st Friday of each month. Sometimes, the numbers are close, and sometimes they are nowhere near close.

THEY LIE....THEY LIE.....ooooohhh.......aaaahhhh......

Listen to yourselves for once.

 

You have to remember that both numbers and reports are being manipulated to fit a narrative. A large percentage of "new" jobs are part-time. Many- people taking second jobs, because they can support themselves
with the pay check from one.

The Bloomberg company, one of the largest financial data research firms that investors subscribe to (at $20K per year) has done an extensive research into the trajectory of our economy. With AI support, they generated one million different scenarios for our economy over the next ten years. 88% of them indicated we are headed for a major financial collapse.

Many corporations are scrambling to stay solvent. Cutbacks and layoffs are happening in large scale. In my own city, we have a huge mall that has been losing merchants steadily since the covid hit. Last week, the owner out of New york, who owns many malls- failed to be able to pay the electric bill again, despite extensions, and the power has been shut off for a week. What tenants are left have zero business. Their help is being laid off; some merchants are hoping to move elsewhere- but the costs of that in tough times will probably mean they just close.

I'm a businessman and employer- and have been for 53 years, having founded 9 companies and presently CEO of two. Chances are I may have learned something along the way- and I will tell you, that Bloomberg is right. The government is robbing peter to pay paul, borrowing on tomorrow to pay for todays wasteful habits. Inflating the balloon- to hide the truth. Creative a debt service cost so massive that
Things are going to get a lot worse, and it's going to take a long time to turn it around- IF it can be turned around. In ten years- 20% of tax revenue will be used to pay interest on the national debt. Today, it's already at 13%. Imagine your own economic picture- and having to use 20% of your total income to pay just the interest on your debt, yet you continue deficit spending and raising that number.

If you pay the minimum on a credit card balance, it may take 30 years to pay it off. But if you keep increasing the debt... it never pays off, it just grows, and eats you alive.

 

Anyone can "quote experts" and spin it for their agenda. Trump supporters are particularly adept at this especially since they are unfettered by the truth or reality.
And FuUX, as we have learned, is a useful tool for them.

Please don't feel sorry for me. I live a good life and the Democrats I elect advance the issues that I respect and for which I advocate.

 

So, you think the government hacks ADP data to boost the job numbers, even when they actually want lower numbers (to trigger Fed rate cuts). Your logic is.......'interesting', although it doesn't make any sense.

 

Is this the same Bloomberg that said we would 100% be in a recession by now? I'll take what they say with a grain of salt.

 

PLEASE refute the statements that UNEMPLOYMENT is down and that WAGES have increased.
It seems you are blinded by your uneducated thinking about the economy.
Prejudice towards any area causes untrue remarks.
I will wait for your evidence of wages and unemployment.

 

Of course, you failed to mention that the Worst President Ever Donnie Trump's gross dismantling of the COVID-19 crisis led to the worsening of the unemployment rate, an increase in the inflation rates, and a double-dip recession.

 

lol now compare how many are working pre covid in 2019 to today. After 4 years biden has finally matched trump.

 

the Republican run FED has done everything they could to bring the Biden economy down, not working

 

global Covid related supply issues, people changing spending habits due to Covid, Corporate greed....

 

Nothing this administration does makes sense. They lack the ability, the foresight, the character to lead a nation. They will sell out tomorrow to get what they want today.

 

It's a report of a serious study. Take it for what it- or for what you want it to be.... kind of a test of your needing the grain of salt too.