ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 184,000 Jobs in March; Annual

Well as Biden has bragged about before so many of those new jobs created went to immigrants and he even claimed how new jobs for immigrants is what is bolstering and saving the economy. So you should know that all these "good" job numbers are for labor in America but are not held by Americans....

Washington Post - About 50 percent of the labor market’s extraordinary recent growth came from foreign-born workers between January 2023 and January 2024, according to an Economic Policy Institute analysis of federal data.

National Employment Law Project - “One of the most crucial forces driving the nation’s job growth and economic vitality over the last year has been immigration,” said Rebecca Dixon, president and CEO of the National Employment Law Project (NELP).

 

Sure. Just saying hard to trust them when they predicted a recession with 100% certainty. If they prediction a recession with that much accuracy only to be wrong, gotta question the validity of their modeling.

 

Why, as a said above Congressional Budget Office, and Bureau of Labor Statistics are MY SOURCES.

And your point would be , , ,? Used to . l . had no pertinence to the current situation.

 

Don't believe it. Have lunch at Mickey D's. or try googling "retirees going back to work".

 

Since you refuse to post data to support your argument, here are actual stats. What this shows is that a fewer retirees are working compared to pre-pandemic rates. Shocking isn't it? Now tell me why a lower labor participation rate is a bad thing under Biden.

 

It might not make sense to you because you are have an unreasoning bias against anything and everything they do.

As for selling out, the Orange Stain already did that, to various parties including Russia and China. That covers at least 3/4 of the non-US allied world.

 

Sorry, but I'm afraid everyone else got what I said.

In the past people had 3 sources of income, and now the biggest one (pensions) has been removed, so OBVIOSULY it has an effect on the current situation. Its the reason why in recent decades many of our retirees are broke, and there are millions more to come. But no worries, feel free to pretend it started the day Biden took office. To each his own.

Hey! You are ruining his day.

Um....yea.....ADP has nothing to do with this admin, or any other admin. Ask someone to explain what ADP is. I already explained, so I wont bother repeating.

 

But how do you calculate for the greed ? To claim that when business labor costs are reduced, that should lower the costs of the product is disingenuous to the debate. When business lowers their costs, they keep the price the same, and add the difference to their bottom line. That is one of the greatest drivers of corporate wealth is to lower their production costs, while keeping prices the same, thus the increased profit. Now competition may lower some prices, but they all keep prices the same becasue they know the consumer is already acceptable to the price

 

This is simply not the case. As production costs decline, the intersection of the supply/demand curves occurs at a lower price. Setting the price at the intersection of supply/demand will always result in maximum profits. Increasing prices or even keeping them the same will result in less company profits. So no, the price will drop as there are profit incentives for companies to lower the price. Learn basic economics.

Your last sentence implies anti-trust activity on behalf of the companies in a certain industry (or a monopoly). There are severe criminal penalties and massive fines and damages for committing anti-trust violations. Anti-trust crimes are thoroughly scrutinized. Furthermore, companies who obtain more than a certain level of market share are routinely broken up in the interest of the consumer even absent any wrongdoing. This makes it very difficult to achieve the price fixing you described. No one is better at maintaining the interests of the consumer than the US. The SEC has broad leeway in recommending penalties. As a rule penalties well exceed damages to the consumers as a deterrent. One such case was just recently adjudicated.

 

Really ? I work in IT and we have done this for years. Costs get lowered, and prices stay the same. The claim that when costs get lowerd, prices get lowered is disingenuous. How can you increase "profits" without one side of that equation getting lowered ?

 

SOME people had three sources - not every business offered pensions; some, mostly larger, companies and government entities, although some large orgs still do provide them. . Crying about their near disappearance doesn't change things.

As I mentioned above Social Security and Medicare are on life support. The Trustees have been warning about this for several years.

A couple of companies I've worked for offer employee stock plans that worked fairy well. The secretary to the head of my department had joined the company almost from the beginning and over twenty years her share was valued well north of a million bucks.

 

Immigrants, and ILLEGAL immigrants are 2 different issues. If you are an Illegals, you wont count in the "new jobs"

 

Recession is a significant decline in positive economic activity that lasts more than a few months.
Cattle production and inventory is at an all-time low. Ranchers aren't seeing a path to profitability.
50% of people say they are worse off financially than they were one year ago.
The number of middle aged adults who have returned to live with their parents; the number of parents dipping into their retirement funds to help adult kids- several things like that are way up.
Credit card debt is at a record high- as are defaults.
The buying power of $1 in 2020 now required $1.20 to match. If you wages haven't increased by 20%, you are actually worse off. If they have- you have only broke even.
Commercial enterprises are not just struggling, many are collapsing. In my city last week- a huge mall finally shut down, because the owner couldn't pay the electric bill.
That is happening all over the nation.

California thinks they can legislate the value of work with a ludicrous minimum wage, starting in the fast-food industry. Companies are closing stores, laying off thousands- and leaving California, because government has no idea how the economy works. They haven't the slightest concept of the consequences; they just think they can give people a raise without affecting the rest of the economic structure it comes from. This is fairly-tale thinking, but it appeals to the more simple thinkers, and it's spreading. It's actually like a slow suicide movement; they will kill or drive off their own sources of income and their most valuable people. Biden spends like he's sure your pockets will never be empty. No need to be frugal when it's somebody else's money.

We are in a recession right now- what is called a "rolling recession", meaning it's not equally spread in all areas of the economy. However, most things are interdependent on the rest of the system. It takes some time for the effects to spread, but they do.

There is a time before major financial failures where the focus shifts to postponing the inevitable instead of making things work. It's trying to buy time, but almost never works. In a business, it takes a very savvy manager to turn a troubled company around- a hard, tough person with vision, and usually with new money. Lacking that, existing managers will try to keep afloat- but have little chance of actually reversing the process. It's like paying your visa bill with your mastercard. In government, it's borrowing more, raising taxes to pay the interest, but allowing the debt to continue to grow. Used to be that once every few years, we would see a political battle to raise the debt limit to keep the government from shutting down. Now- it's every few months.

If this happened all at once- everyone would be outraged. But it is happening slowly, and that has "normalized" it, and allowed it to acccelerate. I've been a business owner for 53 years, currently CEO of two corporations. We pay no interest- because we have no debt at all, and money in the bank. I've been a very successful investor, because I learned how to read the future of companies by looking not only at financial data- but management skills, which is the most important element. The list of such things is massive. An economy cannot dance on the edge of disaster long without getting hammered, and our economy does not have the kind of leadership that can manage the economy, keep it on track. Not even close.

Huge layoffs are coming. Newsweek reports about 40% of companies are planning layoffs in 2024. AI is going to take a lot of people out of work- At google alone, 30,000 layoffs are coming this year.
Fewer people than ever have a "cushion" of savings to see them through a non-income period. It may be a long fall..... which also means a long recovery- or quite possibly, no recovery.
Make no mistake- it's coming.

 

50% of Americans had them, hence the term 'pensioners'.

Acknowledging historical facts is not "crying", and no one said it would change anything.

401K sounded good on paper, with all the hit phrases like "personal accountability" and "freedom to access your money" etc, but ended up failing many people, and now those people are dependent on handouts. Some people did well, but most either didn't save, or didn't save enough, or saved and then spent it on a boat, bigger house or BMWs on the drive way. It made banks happy of course, because they raked in billions.

What are you going to do about it?

Cool beans.

 

Fine, I'll take you word for it. So what?

And yet you've been repeating it like some sort of mantra.

or warm tortillas(.

May "solution" would be some sort of system were our FICA was deposited in a market based account. A few years ago I ran the deposit statement from my years of FICA and ran it threw a simulation assuming various gains (SS runs about 1%) at 5% on retirement I would have been able to put $100k/year for 15 years and still leave my family an account of near $400k
I

 

The chart clearly states that it is the average per month during the presidency of those listed.

Do you mean unhinged by not believing the Worst President Ever Donnie Trump won the 2020 presidential election, Obama was born in Kenya, and that the Continental Army during the American Revolutionary War had to defend the airports?

 

So you think your prices have remained the same?

Consider this. Is a model T the same car as a new Honda Accord? As efficiencies increase, the cost of production falls. New innovations are also constantly being added. The purchasing power of Americans remains relatively level. Americans demand these new innovations and are willing to pay up to a certain level. So while prices remain fairly close to what the market will bear, you tend to get more car for the same money. The same goes for IT. Data rates constantly increase several magnitudes in a short time, yet the price for these faster data rates remain near the amount we are willing to pay on a monthly basis. The internet connection I had years ago which used a 9600 baud acoustic coupler cost me 40$ per month in 1985. Is this approximately the same price for the same product or am I getting far more bang for the buck? When a competitor develops a faster less expensive technology, your company may be forced to drop their prices based on what the competitor now offers or upgrade your bandwidth to match with no commensurate increase in price. At any point in time if your company sets its prices above or below the market value they won't make quite as much money as they could have at the optimum "sweet spot" price. At times companies may drop prices below the market price knowing it will cost them some profits, if they think this will gain them market share at the expense of their competitors. More often than not they try to react quickly and to the best of their knowledge find that sweet spot. Setting prices above the market value is never of benefit to the company. It lowers profits and erodes market share. No upside to that.

In every case the intersection of the supply/demand curve dictates the optimum price to charge for any particular product. Raising prices above this optimum level does not increase profits. Your company (whatever it is) must set their prices to what the market dictates no matter their costs. Your company does the same market comparison I did when I looked into what ISP I would decide to subscribe. Your company also looks at what other competitors are charging per data rate and must set their prices accordingly to remain viable. If the market price falls below your companies cost of production there is no potential for profit and your company will be forced to close up shop. This might be due to management inefficiencies within your company meaning they are using scarce resources less efficiently than its competitors. It could even be consumers have changed their tastes. Perhaps a new technology has come to fruition making data services available through alternate means.

Such closings are a natural phenomenon in a capitalist economic system. Survival of the fittest in an economic sense. While you may not like the fact your company got forced out of the market due to lower efficiency, this is precisely what the economy as a whole needs. Companies which waste our scarce resources (whether they be labor or material) producing products which the market doesn't value above other potential usages of those same scarce resources must be stopped. The labor and material resources will subsequently move on to produce products the consumer does value more highly than the costs to produce.

And then there is the 500 lb gorilla in the room. Is your company really charging the same rates. The government monetization of the deficits has doubled the money supply (M2) and hence the dollar is worth about half of what it was 3 years ago. The price of food, gas, cars, housing has literally doubled. So if your rates have remained the same, your company is really only charging half of what they were 3 years ago. Government spending and the resulting inflation are a tax on the poor and the middle class first. But it is also a tax paid for by your company when it too must go out into the market to purchase equipment, supplies, and labor.

 

So what? Sounds like you want me to repeat it again, but what's the point.

 

You've repeated often enough; unfortunately never coming close to the actual topic.

 

The BLM report is out. As opposed to ADP (which represents 50% of private corps), the BLM report covers all non-farm sectors of the economy. The growth is over 300K, which is a great number, except that it means the economy is still too hot for the Fed to cut rates.

Wages increased 4.1%.
LFPR rose to 62.7%
Hours worked per week rose to 34.4
Biggest gains sector: Healthcare (72,000 jobs)

US economy adds 303,000 jobs, unemployment falls to 3.8% in March as labor market continues to impress
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-e...or-market-continues-to-impress-123226886.html
The US economy added more jobs than expected in March while the unemployment rate ticked lower, underscoring signs the labor market remains on stronger footing than many economists had predicted.

Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Friday showed the labor market added 303,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in March, significantly more than the 214,000 expected by economists. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate decreased to 3.8% from 3.9% in February.

 

In a poor state?

I’m going to have to nominate that one for under statement of the week.

Dubya handed President Obama the worst economic disaster since the Great Depression … the Great Recession!

And then tRaitor tRump follows that with the most mismanaged health crisis in world history which left U.S. in an economic pickle only exceeded by Hover and Bush.

A poor state? I call it ****ing disasters.

Republicans/tRumpublicans spend their time complaining about how awful the economy is. Then, when they get power, they do their best to show U.S. just what they’re talking about.

 

The first after the Dems took back the Congress under a strong economy, low inflation, low unemployment, record tax revenue increase and a paltry $161B deficit. Where was it two years later after they lame ducked him and started passing their policies?

The second after two strong quarters of growth low unemploymemt COVID in recovery mode. The Biden took over and reversed it.

 

like the low Labor Force Participation Rate? Did you forget the previous huge downward revisions. Rhis administration seems to have a habit of proclaiming great numbers then months later revising them downward.

 

So what? Even with revisions it’s the longest the rate has been this low in many decades. Should start calling him Jobs Biden!

 

Ahhh that leftwing myth

Bush and the Reps handed the Dem Congress a strong economy with rising incomes, strong GDP, low unemployment, record tax revenue increase and a paltry $162B deficit. A year later later they had failed to mitigate the slowdown and then with a Dem President too theynfailed to mitigate the depth and length of the recession exacerbating both and then gave us the worst recovery in modern history.

Who handled jne better?

Yep look at how good was the Gingrich/Kasich economies, the Bush/Rep Congress, the Trump/Rep of course excluding the Pandemic economy which will forever be an "*" in history and haven't even touch the longest greatest during the Reagan years.