Corona Virus Update

Likely there is now more than one reason. However, the reason given initially before the media hype was that supply lines were severed. Initially, the media was playing down the threat itself saying Trump was over reacting.

 

That translates into immunizations are worthless.

 

My plan is "don't lie". I'm aware that it may be unrealistic in this administration, though.

Great! So you did know you should wash your hands. Nowadays one has to wonder if Fox echo-chamber consumers know this kind of things. BTW, did you also know that Jiffy Pop aluminum pans shouldn't be used in the microwave? Just makin' sure....

 

My company does business all over the world, including China. The lead time to get something out that is being manufactured there is about three months, so the impacts on trade traffic of that category are probably just now peaking. Biggest impact would be due to airline schedule cuts, and smaller products which would ship that way. I've received a notice to that effect- that fewer cargo flights were being allowed as well as restrictions on passenger flights.

I think the worst part of this is the eagerness of the media to sensationalize things. I thought from the beginning it sounded overblown, now I'm dead certain it has been. It's a legitimate concern, but the hype has enabled it to create an even larger threat of disrupting the economy. I talk with some regularity with other investors, and most agree. I have a friend in Japan who writes and investment letter, and heard from him this morning. He's expecting the market fall to bottom and reverse shortly, like within 10 days, maybe even tomorrow. The impact created by precautions in travel and shipments will of course last much longer.
Unfortunately, in the rush to hit the street with a sensational story like this, the media doesn't wait for all the facts. We are left to draw our conclusions on flakey reporting.

 

As usual, waste of popcorn

BTW, I have stated at least a dozen times I don't even have Fox news on my Dish programming, I don't watch it.. Attention to detail Golem, try and be a little bit professional ¯\_(º¸º)_/¯

Metal in microwave, yes Golem I/we learned that when they first came out, but I reckon that's good advice mingling with leftist folks

 

You're still at it.

How about providing useful information instead of Trumper propaganda?

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/share-facts.html

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/how-covid-19-is-spread-67143

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032

 

The lead time may be three months, but if they quit shipping , the delivery time drops to days or weeks depending on the means of transportation. Additionally, the stock market reacts based on emotion and threats and the threats were there almost immediately when they closed the borders.

 

Yeah, sure--President LardBucket calls it a hoax.

How are your investments doing?

 

Better than they ever did during the last guy's tenure...

 

If they weren't into "flakey reporting," we wouldn't be hearing from...

 

The Op is reporting what the New England Journal Of Medicine said. That is science whether you like it or not is immaterial. If you want to sensationalize and go against the current science merely because you hate Trump that's on you.

 

I made $$$...



What were you doing?

 

Your analysis is completely flawed. This virus has such a long incubation period, up to two weeks. This means that infected individuals are getting other individuals sick for two weeks before they or anyone else knows they are sick. Also, for 80% of people who experience these symptoms, they are mild to almost non-existent, and to many its just like having the common cold. People are so focused on face masks, that they are forgetting to wash their hands, which is really what is going to protect them. This is why this virus has spread so much more quickly than SARS and MERS.

The problem is that for those who experience severe symptoms, they are really severe, and many even get phenomia as well. While the virus is not killing a lot of children, it is killing a lot of the elderly. Another problem is that it is likely that China is under-reporting the death rate for the Corona virus and that many people who are dying at home aren't being reported. If this virus spreads globally, billions of people will be infected and with a 1-2% death rate, tens of millions will die.

Trump's denial of the threat of this virus and his lack of response, may doom his re-election as people start pointing fingers at him if things get bad. It is also possible that if we go into recession, Trump can't use the economy as an argument for getting re-elected, and the good economy is the biggest reason he even has a chance at re-election.

 

The science says hundreds of thousands of Americans could die in the next year. Not enough for you?

 

Read the op please. N.E.J.O.P. says you're wrong as regard to Carona. Note 100's of thousands of Americans die every year.

 

He needed somebody who, like him, is more concerned with how the stock markets look than with actually dealing with a helth risk that might actually threat American lives.... So he appointed Pence.

Hey! But why worry! The task force is composed of such luminaries in the medical field like economist Steve Mnuchin, Trump's personal attorney Ken Cucchinelli, a former General Motors executive... and many other great Trump donors.

 

The OP didn't even cite the NEJM. I did, in another post. The original NEJM article certainly didn't say "It turns out the Corona virus isn't living up to the hype." as the OP did in opening his post. If you want to know fact, rather than hype, read the NEJM article: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2000929.

 

As to the bolded part: That's what Pence is for, in other words, the fall guy if things don't go well.

 

What you described is true, except for one very vital important thing which is expected out of Washington DC -- coordination!

All these different agencies are desperate for guidance on a standardized test to determine who is infected. Right now, even the 14 day quarantine period is being questioned as some people maybe infected and show no symptoms.

 

Maybe we'll get a voucher for a free oil change.

 

Meanwhile, a bunch of people died from common colds last week.

 

Many experienced investors have been cashing in their gains for many months in anticipation of this overdue correction.
They all have lists of stocks they are eager to buy on any significant drop.
The shorts who get the timing wrong will pay through the nose for that mistake and drive the market up like a rocket.

 

8400 people are being screened in California.
Potentially up to 1500 have been infected in Washington state. The state has declared a state of emergency.
Rhode Island just confirmed its first case, stating it is “presumably positive.”

To say the coronavirus is no different than regular influenza is downplaying how serious of an illness it is.

 

How is the CDC admitting it’s not a matter of if, but when the curses spreads supposed to be “fear monger if from the left?” Now is not the time for conspiracy theories.

 

I can say that from what I'm seeing, interruptions are minimal. That is from the view of the products I deal in, and of course that is a limited one. Regardless of the scope of an event, cool heads provide the best way to deal with it. When people panic, they start doing stupid things. They don't listen, they don't reason, they just react. We were seeing some of that effect, but I believe it's settling down. Pre-market and futures trading over the weekend have the Dow projected at +327 right now- however it was +125 or so Friday, and still dropped hard. As a reference to the next trading day, it is usually in the ball park, but it reflects what expert traders are doing rather than the general ones. I think monday will still be a down day, but will tell us if emotions cooled down over the weekend or not. I'm seeing some reports from medical experts that are trying to get it in perspective too.