Has the Global Temperature Trend Turned to Cooling?

This looks premature to me. The MWP lasted for hundreds of years, the Holocene Optimum for thousands. The modern warming is less than 200 years old. Although the paleoclimate record indicates we can expect cooling as we move towards the next Ice Age, we can't predict solar activity well enough to make such precise predictions yet. It could happen, of course, but the sudden increase in solar activity this year might be the start of another strongly active cycle -- whose warming effect the AGW fools will of course attribute to CO2. Or it could be the last hurrah before a deep freeze. We just don't know.

 

Cooling continues thus far in 2022.

 

Just eyeballing the wave pattern, I'm going to go out on a limb and predict up to another year of relatively weak warming that does not reach the 2016 high, and then a few years of cooling that get close to the 1991-2020 average. CO2 will continue to be almost irrelevant.

 

So far, 2022 is warmer than 2021. The variation seems to have a period of ~2.5 years.

 

Still falling from 2016.

 

The deep Pacific has been cooling for a long time.

Most Of The Pacific Ocean’s Volume Has Undergone Intensifying Cooling Since 1993
By Kenneth Richard on 19. September 2022

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The Pacific Ocean is 5 and up to 6 km deep. New research indicates the bottom half (2 km to the bottom) of the Pacific has been robustly cooling since 1993.
A new preprint details the “surprising” Pacific cooling pattern from two ocean heat content (OHC) datasets over the 1993-2017 period.

Most OHC records only extend to the first 2 km of the ocean. Analyses of trends in the deeper ocean indicate intensified cooling from 2 km to the abyssal waters, or for well more than half the Pacific Ocean’s volume.



Image Source: Liao et al., 2022
. . . .

 

Another month of cooling.

UAH Global Temperature Update for September, 2022: +0.24 deg. C
October 3rd, 2022
The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for September, 2022 was +0.24 deg. C, down slightly from the August, 2022 value of +0.28 deg. C.



The linear warming trend since January, 1979 still stands at +0.13 C/decade (+0.11 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.18 C/decade over global-averaged land).

 

More cooler temperatures likely.

Scientists Warn of a Rare Third Year La Nina
Charles Rotter
“Nonetheless, we should be aware of the risk of intense cold surges in Eurasia, which could also produce more cold extremes either in eastern or northeastern China,” Fang warns. . . .

 

Ya, so?

 

Part of a larger trend.

Solar Update September, 2021
2021 › 09 › 22 › solar-update-september-2021
by solar hemisphere 1985 – 2021 ... Breaking down solar activity by hemisphere shows that solar activity ... relative length of the solar cycles. ... Figure 6: F10.7 flux for solar cycles 19 to 25 aligned
modulates the solar signal on the decadal scale, but that the QBO is itself modulated by the solar variability


Our planet’s temperature peaked in 2016 and has been in a disciplined decline since. It is in a channel 0.5°C wide with a slope of -0.03°C per annum. The atmosphere had been warming at 0.013°C per annum according to Dr Roy Spencer’s work. If the established cooling trend continues it will only take another decade to get back to the temperatures of the early 1980s. With the cooling trend firmly established, the question is: Can the proximate cause be found in the solar record?

 

New Study: Southeastern US Cooling Since The 1800s Associated With Increased Precipitation
By Kenneth Richard on 27. October 2022

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Significant cooling trends of up to 1°C have been ongoing in the southeastern US since the late 1800s. A new study suggests that higher precipitation trends are linked to decreasing temperatures in this region, comparable to what has happened in other cooling periods (i.e., the Little Ice Age). . . .

 

Still on track for cooling in 2022.

UAH Global Temperature Update for October, 2022: +0.32 deg. C
November 2nd, 2022
The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for October, 2022 was +0.32 deg. C, up from the September, 2022 value of +0.24 deg. C.

 

Though we can't predict what the sun will do in the remainder of 2022, we shouldn't be surprised if the unexpectedly high level of solar activity this year resulted in an increase in temperature from 2021.

 

Not likely, IMHO.

 

According to whom? The NOAA data set suggests that your comment isn't accurate.

 

I find that a single year difference isn't statistically important it is far better to say that it has been cooling since 2016 which is a 6+ year length there will always be some oscillation during that time.

The new Pause lengthens: now 7 years 6 months

LINK

 

It's true that a single year doesn't mean much, and of course the year's starting date is rather arbitrary.

 

Which NOAA data set? Just eyeballing the UAH data, 2022 looks slightly warmer to date:
https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/

 

Previously sited by @Jack Hays I see you didn't read that either.

 

Yes, that can be true but starting in 2016 as a chosen start year is because that was the beginning of the cooling trend nothing more all to show that CO2 doesn't prevent long cooling periods that is all we can get out of it while warmist/alarmists have gone down to the SINGLE weather day to proclaim a climate disaster in the making and they do it continuously now.

Now who is being reasonable here?

 

Wrong. I read pretty much everything Jack posts, and what's more, I understand it. Please quote the data you are referring to.

 

Me, of course.

 

The New Pause Lengthens to 8 years 1 Month
Guest Blogger
Why, then, the continuing worldwide pandemic of panic about the mildly warmer weather we are enjoying?


Just in time for the latest UN Assembly of Private Jets at a swank resort in Egypt, the New Pause has lengthened again. It is now 8 years 1 month, calculated as the longest period for which there is a zero least-squares linear-regression trend up to the most recent month for which the UAH global mean surface temperature anomaly is available:


The trend on the entire dataset during the 527 months from December 1978 to October 2022 is 0.59 C°, equivalent to a modest and beneficial 1.34 C°/century:

 

I was talking about between ME and Warmist/alarmists


Yes, that can be true but starting in 2016 as a chosen start year is because that was the beginning of the cooling trend nothing more all to show that CO2 doesn't prevent long cooling periods that is all we can get out of it while warmist/alarmists have gone down to the SINGLE weather day to proclaim a climate disaster in the making and they do it continuously now."

 

You, definitely. But it should be obvious that if there is no long-term trend, the probability of any given year being warmer (or cooler) than the previous one is 50% -- but if a given year was cooler than the average, then the probability of the next year being warmer than that is >50%, and vice versa. Moreover, if there is a long-term trend, then a year that is above the trend will likely be followed by a year that is below, and vice versa. So when I look at the UAH temperature record and see that 2021 was noticeably cooler than the trend, the implication is that 2022 will more likely be warmer than 2021, and also the trend.