How does a Tropical Storm become a Cat 5 Hurricane in less than 9 hours?

Otis was a 50 mph Tropical storm at 4 p.m. CDT yesterday. At 1 a.m. it was a Category 5 Hurricane. Just before hitting land near Acapulco Mexico.

How does this happen? Warm waters!

Again, this thread is not intended to discuss AGW science. The scientific consensus (consensus of peer-reviewed studies... .not of opinions) was established three decades ago, and all the evidence you need is in https://www.ipcc.ch/

Ok. With that out of the way, what I wanted to comment is about how this kind of things would happen was predicted decades ago. Not that there would be MORE hurricanes. But that they would be stronger and more devastating. Otis would have likely happened with or without AGW. But not without warm waters. A very dangerous situation. There is basically NO time to prepare.

Now we don't just need to keep a watch on systems that are formed long from out coasts. This kind of water temperatures mean that even a tropical depression that develops in the Caribbean might become a devastating Hurricane in a matter of hours.

What we saw with Otis has not happened in recorded history. Not this quickly. But it's likely to happen AGAIN. Every time more and more often. Science denialism is not going to help. We need to demand that those who govern us address the problem NOW. The progression might be unavoidable in most of our lifetimes. But we can still help our children. Those who don't care about their children... all we ask of them is that they stay out of the way of those who are trying to ameliorate the problem. Nothing more.

 

It's called weather. Glad I could help.

 

Its unusual for them to intensify that fast, but it has happened several times recently.

 

Well, first off, it didn't go from 50 mph to 155 mph (100 mph increase) in 9 hours.

It went from 65 mph to 145 mph (80 mph increase )in 12 hours (making it a Cat 4, not a Cat 5).

 

The last time was in 2015.

 

No, there has been rapidly intensifying storms lately, like the one which hit NW Florida as Cat-5

 

Probably has to do with climate change. I went through María. I live in Puerto Rico.

 

And Maria in 2017. It probably has to do with climate change.

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/live-blog/hurricane-otis-live-updates-rcna122088

https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/damage-hurricane-otis-landfall-acapulco-mexico

Fastest growth in the region since we had satellite tracking.

 

Hurricane idalia peaked at a weak Cat 4, then slowed to a Cat 3 before landfall, making landfall as a Cat 3.

 

Its irrelevant what it is at landfall. These storms intensify very rapidly. We lucked out this year, since almost all turned away from land, because the water near Florida was super warm, and it would have helped intensify the storms. I was not referring to Hurricane Idalia, but the Michael, which hit NW Florida as Cat-5.

 

Michael hit 5 years ago.

 

The water in the Gulf is warm and it's hurricane season which happens every year.

 

Exactly. We are also in a pattern known as Indian Summer which happens every year. The weather guy on NBC was beside himself because this strange warmth happening in October must be global warming. SMH

 

You can call it "roast beef", for all I care. The point is that this would not have been this bad if we had taken steps 20 years ago. And that, if we take steps now... we might not prevent the next one, but maybe we can make one be less destructive 20 years from now.

If the only thing you can contribute to accomplish this is to give it a name.... keep it to yourself. You're standing in the way of the adults who are really trying to solve the problem for you.

 

Wasn't that convenient

 

You don't know that, and you certainly don't know anything before satellite tracking.

 

Actually I mistyped. It went from 50 to 165 in 32 hours. But it went from a Tropical storm to a Cat 5 in less than 12 hours.

"The tropical cyclone’s wind intensity increased from a 50-mph tropical storm at 4 p.m. CDT on Monday to a 165-mph Category 5 hurricane at 1:00 a.m. CDT on Wednesday.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurr...a-category-5-storm-tammy-eyes-bermuda/1589684
​

Makes no difference to my point, though.

 

This one was in the Pacific.

 

I have relabeled it to global warming fear mongering season..

Before satellite tracking there were no hurricanes at all, we'll maybe a few but only like kite flying wind..

 

El Niño, El Niña?

 

It takes more than warm waters. A tropical storm, or any other storm for that matter is just like any other heat engine. An engine will not run if it is fed either too much fuel or oxygen or if it is not mixed properly. It takes a combination of factors to make it work. If the tropical storm was all warm, it would not work. If it was all cold, it would not work. It takes that correct combination of hot and cold. In addition, the wind distribution has to be right. Too much wind and there is insufficient time to pick up the warm moisture. Too little and it is not fed properly. Too much shear and vertical development is hindered.

This event is just like any other single weather event. It neither proves nor disproves AGW. Hundreds of new weather records are made daily and have been more billions of years.

You should ask yourself one question. Was it forecast to intensify that quickly? If it wasn't, doesn't that indicate that we really do not fully understand current weather, let alone long term changes?

 

Let me tell you a secret: I cheat! I repeat what people who DO know about those things, professionals in the area, say. It's called "research". Which is enough to educate people who still get their facts... what they think are facts... from judicially adjudicated proven liars like Tucker, Fox or Breitbart... and similar. A satellite expert might have been ideal, but I can certainly do better than the clowns you usually get your news what you post from

 

While I don't doubt our climate is changing, it's good to actually view historically record when discussing this issue:

1. Florida (Keys) - 1935, 892 mb

2. Camille (Mississippi, Louisiana, Virginia) - 1965, 900 mb

3. Michael (Florida) - 2018, 919 mb

4. Katrina (Louisiana) - 2005, 920 mb

5. Andrew (Florida, Louisiana) - 1992, 922 mb

6. Texas (Indianola) - 1884, 925 mb

7. Florida (Keys) - 1919, 927 mb

8. Florida (Lake Okeechobee) - 1928, 929 mb

9. Donna (Florida) - 1960, 930 mb

10. Louisiana (New Orleans) - 1915; Carla (north and central Texas) - 1961; Ian (southwest Florida) - 2022, 931 mb


I don't see any "recent' trend supporting they are more powerful. In fact, it looks like the opposite.

 

Obviously. But humanity might be able to help with warm waters. Not so much with the rest.

Most smart people understand that this kind of expressions are not intended to be taken literally as the ONLY reason for hurricaness.