How does a Tropical Storm become a Cat 5 Hurricane in less than 9 hours?

You know what you need to do: quote the conclusion from a peer-reviewed study published in the last 20 years in which the consensus position (that the surface temperature is increasing, and that this is caused by human activity) is rebutted. You provide a link and.... well... it's just a start. Obviously you would need more than that to debunk 100 years of studies and thousands proving the AGW consensus.... But at least you will have demonstrated that it's worth paying some attention to you.

Absent that... have a good day!

 

I know what you're saying. But they're different things. The fact that I don't debate climate science doesn't mean I'm not going to show them the consequences of them denying science for the last three decades.

 

People "taking steps" won't solve this. Policy will. But, to get there, we need people in power who care about the future, and not just about getting themselves elected again and again.

 

If you already know the science, why do you need people in power to tell you what to do?

 

Got it.

 

Me? You are confused. I don't own any car manufacturing company... or anything like that that would make much of a difference.

 

Observed increases in North Atlantic tropical cyclone peak intensification rates

Quickly intensifying tropical cyclones (TCs) are exceptionally hazardous for Atlantic coastlines. An analysis of observed maximum changes in wind speed for Atlantic TCs from 1971 to 2020 indicates that TC intensification rates have already changed as anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have warmed the planet and oceans. Mean maximum TC intensification rates are up to 28.7% greater in a modern era (2001–2020) compared to a historical era (1971–1990). In the modern era, it is about as likely for TCs to intensify by at least 50 kts in 24 h, and more likely for TCs to intensify by at least 20 kts within 24 h than it was for TCs to intensify by these amounts in 36 h in the historical era. Finally, the number of TCs that intensify from a Category 1 hurricane (or weaker) into a major hurricane within 36 h has more than doubled in the modern era relative to the historical era. Significance tests suggest that it would have been statistically impossible to observe the number of TCs that intensified in this way during the modern era if rates of intensification had not changed from the historical era.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-42669-y

A ‘Nightmare’ for Forecasters: Here’s Why Hurricanes Are Getting Stronger, Faster

Early on Monday, Hurricane Ian was a tropical storm with heavy rain and winds of at least 73 miles per hour. But experts say the storm is gaining power rapidly and, if recent history is any guide, it could intensify dangerously as it nears Cuba as soon as Monday night.

As Earth’s climate warms, more storms are undergoing this kind of rapid intensification, growing quickly from relatively weak tropical storms to Category 3 or higher hurricanes in under 24 hours, sometimes stunning forecasters and giving residents little time to prepare.

Here are key facts about how climate change can rapidly intensify tropical storms.

Warming oceans fuel higher winds
More than 90 percent of the excess heat from human-caused global warming over the past 50 years has been absorbed by the oceans. Since 1901, sea surface temperatures have risen an average of 0.14 degrees Fahrenheit per decade, according to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

That’s crucial, because storms gather strength over the ocean. And, the warmer the water, the more power they pick up. Higher surface temperatures allow hurricanes to reach higher levels of maximum sustained wind, a common metric used to describe the intensity of a storm.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/26/climate/hurricane-ian-rapid-intensification.html

Climate Change Indicators: Sea Surface Temperature
https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-sea-surface-temperature

 

How El Niño fueled Otis’s unprecedented surge

El Niño, the warm phase of the Pacific Ocean’s temperature cycle, has been especially strong this year, driving global air and ocean temperatures to levels never before recorded. Hurricanes require sea surface temperatures of 80 degrees Fahrenheit or more to form, so hotter weather tends to favor more hurricanes. In the Atlantic Ocean, El Niño also tends to create wind shear — wind coming from different directions or at different speeds — which usually suppresses hurricane formation, but the water temperatures have been so hot that hurricane activity in the Atlantic has still been above average.

In the Pacific, El Niño is much more favorable to tropical storms (in the eastern Pacific, major tropical storms are called hurricanes, while in the west, they’re known as typhoons). This year, the west coast of North America has already seen several hurricanes. Hurricane Hilary struck California in August, and the winds from Hurricane Dora fanned the flames of wildfires in Hawaii.

Hurricane Otis, the 15th named storm in the eastern Pacific this year, spooled up right in the patch of warmer water around the equator that characterizes El Niño.

The area was also prime real estate for rapid intensification. For Otis, the “key ingredient” for intensification was warm water, with temperatures topping 86 degrees Fahrenheit, said Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami. By this time in October, the Pacific Ocean had soaked up plenty of heat all summer long, so there was abundant warm water at the surface and several feet below to feed Otis. A day or two before the storm intensified there was some wind shear and patches of dry air — which can disrupt the formation of a strong storm — but they subsided just enough by late on the 24th for Otis to explode, McNoldy said.
https://www.vox.com/climate/2393200...capulco-rapid-intensification-extreme-climate

I'll never understand your insistence that this kind of info be spoon fed to you when it's readily available on, as Dubya would say, the internets.

 

Which evidently also has warm water this time of year.

 

West coast vs East coast, the water temps are about 16F colder in West, because the current comes from the North, while we get it from the South. That's why the West coast never gets hurricanes. Of course Acapulco is 2000 miles South of LA, and the water is much warmer there. Either way, the speed of intensification was the 1st of its kind in Pacific.

 

I'd like to hear the Climate Crisis Cultists explain why there weren't a shload of hurricanes in your parts this year, given that there's a "CRISIS!!" going on and all. This hurricane season should have been a conveyor belt of death and destruction........except it wasn't.

As for us in the Mid-Atlantic, we didn't get a whiff of hurricane this year - only one rather mild tropical storm. I'd say this has been a most disappointing season for Carbon Commie Climate Alarmists.

 

And the gulf was exceedingly warm this year and yet here we are alive and well

 

And parts of the Keys were over 100 at the peak We lucked out this year as high pressure systems pushed almost all storms away from US

 

. You do know that we're in the midst of an El Niño weather pattern which brings warm waters to the Eastern Pacific, right? The condition happens every few years.

The worst thing we can do is run around with our hair on fire screaming "do something (drastic)" based on a randomly occurring event. Find to National Weather Service historical listing of tropical storms and hurricanes by category. Notice the randomness both of number of storms and severity. There are no long term discernible trends.



BTW: Did you notice how quickly this storm went from Cat 5 to tropical depression?

 

Interesting fact: solar energy is absorbed by the top few microns of water surface. Sea temps are driven more by wind and currents.

 

Are they? As cited from where? What, for example, creates low pressure that then induces storm formation? The oceans are always "moist". By their very nature. So, why, are there not continuous storms of immense strength? You literally are saying, because you said so, and nothing more. It's embarrassing, even for you.

 

Supply is the result of demand. True change starts with the person you see in the mirror. I see lots of feigned concern for the environment, but see few walking the walk. Those with a genuine concern can make a difference.

 

Yep! And that fact combined with Global Warming just basically leveled Acapulco.

That IS the worst thing. And the best is to stop electing crazies who just want to shut down Congress but not do anything to ameliorate REAL problems like this one.

 

Hmm.. And yet the El Nino isn't a product of AGW, or is this a new assertion that you're making? More, given that the condition of the warming starting to appear in the E Pacific, why didn't this happen before, or for that matter, why aren't there continuing production of storms from the same lingering warm waters?

Has the effect of the storm to be a redistribution of the concentration of the heat there, and if so, isn't that a good thing? I know you found an article on the inter webs... but dang... Did you actually read it?

 

Explain how you didn't even take in to consideration cloud seeding and other climate manipulation experiments. Clearly your climate guru's have left you out of the loop or once again your nifty SIG is hyperbole

 

See, the truth here is that liberal folk believe that everyone else must do the needful things. Not them, specifically, cause, you know, it would impede their happiness, and success, and well, they should't be expected to actually contribute. It's like the rest of their pejorative ways. Rules aren't for them, just the rest of us.

 

Well, you're half correct; just not the Global Warning part.

. Yeah, maybe they'll pass a law spending ten gazillion dollars to figure out how to put rudders on them so we can steer them where we want.

 

"Policy" is what legislators produce instead of tangible results after spending trillions of dollars.

 

Yeah... Global Warming would need to be really really intense for it to have any effect on ... Oh! I see....