I could be wrong, but here's why Harris will win

1. Obama doesn't die his hair, and turning grey is common to many people, some sooner, some later, my hair was prematurely grey, and a full head of grey hear when I was 35. yes, grey hair makes you look older, do tell.

2. Trump dies his hair. No one 78 has true blond hair.

And you think Trump looks good?

If Trump didn't die his hair, it would be grey, donning this face, without make up, and he looks his age, complete with turkey neck exposed. And yes, he is fat/overweight. Obama is slim and trim.

 

You are not understanding.

A rule of statistical sampling (which describes a poll) is that 1 out of 20 well designed statistical samples will be a statistical outlier. This has nothing to do with the skill of the pollster. It is about statistics. The same thing applies when flipping a coin. If you are trying to use a statistical sample to show the frequency of heads or tails, every once in a while you will go on a run of heads and might flip heads 7 times in a row. This is not a representative sample. It is a statistical anamoly that is expected to occur 1 in every 20 polls, which is about the same frequency that you would flip heads 6 or 7 times in a row. It happens with regularity if you try enough.

When there are polls that are so out of line with all other polling, it is easy to identify a statistical anamoly. Trump won Iowa by 8 points in 2020. This poll has Harris winning by 3. That would be an 11 point swing. An 11 point swing doesn't just happen in one place. It would be reflected elsewhere with similar demographics. For Iowa, it would be reflected in similar rural/farm states such as Nebraska, Missourri, Wisconsin, , even Ohio and Michigan. There is no such trend that has been identified.

You can chase this fools gold if you want. It is no skin off my nose. If Harris were to come anywhere close to winning in Iowa, she will win a Reagan in 1984 style landslide because of what that demographic shift would represent. Nobody of consequence honestly thinks that is about to happen., but by all means, you do you. I sort of like the left getting themselves emotionally tied to such frivolous nonsense.

 

See above.

 

This is categorically false.

See above.

A statistical anamoly is not related to poor poll design even slightly. If a skewed result is due to poor poll design, it would not be called a statistical anomaly, it would simply be labeled invalid due to its shoddy methodology. That is something entirely different. The best pollsters in the world get statistical anomalies 5% of the time. It is inherent in the process of using a random statistical sample to represent and predict the whole of something. Sometimes (5% of the time) that sample is an outlier and does not represent the whole within the margin of error.

 

LOL... sometimes, it's just necessary to laugh. To be so easily taken in by such obvious BS... It's like the OP is just trying to mislead folks these days...

 

Considering the first sentence in the above paragraph, it doesn't sound unfair at all. Claiming that you hate men just as much as you hate women doesn't compensate.

 

Nah I think Harris is ****ed. It doesn’t matter that she’s smarter than the orange lardtard. (In fact, that actually works against her.). She’s brown and a woman.

I hope I’m wrong. I really do. But I just got back from polling and the place was empty. ****ing empty. Low turnout means Trump wins.

 

How about if I tell you that my issues with men in general long pre-date those with women?

It has taken me a long to fully grasp the idea that its a minority of men and women are worth a damn, and most people fall into bad patterns of their genders....much like other animals do.

 

Then my hunch is confirmed.

Pretty self-centered. Why would men or women HAVE to be worth a damn to YOU?

General misanthropy is not sign of a sound mind. Normal people are averse to others for a reason. For example, I hate a convicted felon who sexualy abuses women and has tortured children by separating them from their parents. And I know that many people are fooled by somebody like that. But it's not their fault if they're not smart enough to not fall for it. So, despite their actions and lack of judgement, I don't hate THEM.

 

Oh, I don't blame you if you don't read many of my posts, Patricio -- but if you ever decide to pore over them going back YEARS, you'll see that my consistent, top-tier bitch is always about how unfair the U. S. Tax Code is! I rail against the tax loopholes, tax shelters, exclusions, exemptions, deductions, and "carried interest" that the wealthy use (via their armies of tax lawyers and tax accountants) to avoid EVER paying a truly 'fair-share' of personal income taxes.

A lot of my complaining about the Tax Code probably makes boring reading after a while, admittedly -- especially my never-ending rants against how unfairly people who work to support themselves without sucking on the government are taxed in this country... while at the same time, the poor pay nothing, and the rich pay little or nothing -- always. Indeed, "Fat Cat" Republican AND "Limousine Liberal" Democrat have never really done anything to change this monstrous inequality in taxation policy! (It's hell being an 'unaffiliated Independent'... take my word for it....)

Parasites are parasites, Patricio -- and we have both the poor and rich varieties in this country! .

 

I am not defending Donald Trump, period! He will LOSE this election, and before too long he'll be living back at Mar-a-Lago after being given parole for his conviction(s), wearing an ankle bracelet!

Trump wants tariffs -- guaranteed to propel inflation to heights undreamed up since the 1970's! Trump wants the U. S. to be the "Crypto Capital of the World" (after saying four years ago that crypto is nothing but "thin air" -- worthless! Trump had a chance to 'fix' the border by sealing the damned thing SHUT to all migration in an emergency moratorium, but he DIDN'T. Trump built a hopelessly useless "wall" (which he said Mexico would pay for) when he should have put mobile intercept platoons of U. S. Army troops on the border to keep illegals OUT. Trump wanted to destroy savings accounts with NEGATIVE interest rates (like they've done in Europe). Shall I go on and on?

Hell, no, I don't support Trump in this election, although I did vote for him in 2016 and 2020 -- only because the Democrat alternatives were even WORSE.... Do you understand why...? Wait until we get so economically ****ed-up under Kammy and "Obama 3.0" that we can't even pay the interest on the National Debt -- then, maybe you on the Left will 'get it'.

Last word:

. The man you never heard of: CHASE OLIVER!

 

Knock yourself out!

No, not in a million years.

Not going to happen, The economy will do exponentially better under VP Harris than tRaitor tRump. President Obama left office 8 years ago. U.S. will pay the interest on our debt. The economy has consistently done better with Democrats in power.

Will remain largely unheard of.

 

Then, have a lovely day! And be assured of an even better day tomorrow, because it will become quite clear Kammy Harris and "Elmer Fudd" Walz will be the next president and vice-president. And, the icing on the cake is that Democrats will very likely gain a majority in the House of Reps AND keep their majority in the Senate. If I were a Democrat, I'd be preparing to go on a three-day drunk just to celebrate all the 'goodness' that will be announced over the next few days!

 

I have to believe you're correct, at least about the Presidency. At least I hope you are. It would be a great bonus if your also correct about the House and Senate. I'm to old to go on a bender and if I weren't to old then I'd have to many responsibilities that would preclude it.

In ANY case win or lose we AmeriCANs have our Constitution and hopefully enough patriots to enforce it, which would get U.S. through another tRaitor tRump presidency. That's if he doesn't do something real stupid and start a nuclear war, which unfortunately isn't beyond the realm of possibilities.

 

Campaigned? Is that what you're calling it.

 

yeah, we have had reports in our mainly red city, of the bubblehead brigade stealing signs, keying cars etc.

 

Sooner rather than later, the biggest problem Trump is going to have will be how to deal with wearing an ankle bracelet monitor while trying to regain his golf swing at Mar-a-Lago! He'll be lucky to get parole (but he probably will)... some Democrats want him to get something a lot worse than that....

Meanwhile, "Big Guy" Joe will be reclining in his mansion at Rehoboth Beach in honored retirement, mumbling to the sea gulls and anyone else who still cares to listen to him....

 

That's physical activity. Like I said, no breaks.

 

Historically, it can takes weeks to count every vote. Why do you believe this election should be different?

 

Maybe they don’t like her policies. Women are not a monolith

 

TRaitor tRump is facing much worse times (at best) than that. How bad is YTBD.

Yeah President Biden will live out his days as a very accomplished President that recovered America from the COVID pandemic and the tRaitor tRump maladministration.

 

So post something that questions my poll's accuracy.

 

How did Emerson's prediction in 2016 turn out?

 

Here is Iowa's 2016 prediction. Which pollster was more accurate?

 

That doesn't prove her (Selzer & Co) poll is a 'statistical anomaly' especially given that there is reportage that many of the pollsters are skewing results to the center, that way, if they are wrong, it won't be by too much on other side. This method change was a reaction from the last election in which they took a lot of flack for being so wrong. Now, there is some talk about that, and if it is true, it could explain why hers doesn't comport to the others, and by that measure, would not be a 'statistical anomaly'.

The word is that a number of pollsters have been engaging in a practice called 'herding'.

https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1851399896860971450

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/trump-harris-polls-herding-error-nate-silver.html