It’s Time to End Magical Thinking About Russia’s Defeat

That is a totally incoherent response, given that my reply was about how Ukraine could win the war. Are you admitting that you agree with the OP that Russia isn't going to lose this war?

 

I never said anything in the OP about Russia winning the war, merely that they are not going to lose, although I think you've defined losing for them as ending the conflict with new territory taken from Ukraine. Most people wouldn't consider that "losing" and I really doubt Ukraine is going to think Russia lost if they pull off chunks of their territory.

Good luck on that peace deal. I can't imagine why Russia would take that when they already control a lot more territory than that.

 

Yet more copy/paste.

I'm kind of enjoying watching you not be able to come up with an actual argument based on your own thoughts though.

 

I don't see how Russia can "win" unless they absorb and pacify all of Ukraine, removing their leaders, and replacing them with their own....although I haven't really looked at Moscow's "win" conditions.

Saying Russia is "winning" doesn't mean I think Ukraine is "winning" either though. I mean it is a possibility in warfare that neither side really "wins".

My opinion on this whole thing is that Russia thought it was going to use Ukraine as a warning to the rest of the world, and show that they could quickly, and easily, take over a country that, in Putins view, threatened the Russian regime.

In that case, they've failed miserably and simply showcased how incapable they are of combating NATO or anyone else.

 

Well I guess Russia will have to accept their "loss" as they keep lots of new territory.

 

What value will they get out of it though, even if they keep it? Are the people in all those areas wanting Russia to take it, or will it result in an "occupation" scenario?

I get Crimea to some degree, but the rest of it?

 

Much of the rest of the area they are occupying are full of ethnic Russians. It's one of the reasons this war seems to have so much popular support in Russia, when you would think they would oppose it considering the burden's they've had to bear as a result of it.

 

Are there trustworthy sources for how popular the war is in Russia? I haven't really looked into that.

If the captured areas are predominately ethnically/culturally Russian, then yeah, I don't see why Ukraine would even fight to get them back.

Better to cut losses than get into a decades long quagmire for either side.

 

I would say no, there aren't any trustworthy sources. We're not likely to trust Russian polls. But we do have reporters there and if there was a lot of civil unrest we would know about it.

 

Then again mass protests tend to result in unwanted extra body holes in Russia.

I guess all we can do is wait and see.

 

How about Zelensky?

Quantity Still Has a Quality All Its Own.

'Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy admitted last week that his country’s 2023 counteroffensive “did not achieve the desired results,” and that “we have a new phase of war.” Russian strongman Vladimir Putin could have said the exact same thing this time last year after his country was forced to retreat from huge swaths of occupied Ukraine. So what can we learn from each side’s successes and failures?'

As we pointed out a year ago, Ukraine cannot win a war of attrition with a population that is 4 times their size.

'Ukraine's 2023 counteroffensive stalled because Russia has the numbers and Ukraine doesn't.'

'Russian troops don't have to be good, they just have to be there. They are still a man with a gun on his shoulder that has to be rooted out of a trench.'

For over a year, it's been perfectly clear that 'now would be a good time for the White House to use every carrot and stick at its disposal to bring both sides to the negotiating table.' But Bribed Joe dithers. Why?

The Bribed Joe administration is 'sending just enough aid to keep Ukraine fighting but not enough to force Putin to the negotiating table. Peace doesn't seem to be on the Biden agenda.'

'victory doesn't seem to be on the Biden agenda, either.'

 

Ukraine definitely has it's own set of problems that are different, but just as valid as my points on the Russian military.

My position on captured Ukrainian territory was me asking if those areas are predominately pro-Russian. If they are, Ukraine would be better off cutting their losses on those areas. Same goes for Russia. If they are capturing areas that are predominately pro-Ukraine, it's not worth the long term headache of occupying them.

I think it's doubtful that Ukraine can, or really should want to, take back all Russian gains....especially if they're occupying pro-Russian areas. It has become apparent also that Russia is incapable of taking over Ukraine and installing a pro-Moscow government.

At best, Russia might achieve a Pyrrhic victory if it can keep the areas it's fortified with defenses.

At worst, Russia has revealed that it has no hope of threatening it's nearby NATO countries in conventional warfare.

It's clear that Russia's intent was quickly driving into Ukraine, decimating the Ukrainian military, taking Kiev, and absorbing Ukraine as a show of strength against what it saw as "western aggression".

That was a costly squeeze for Russia with very little juice.

Can Ukraine completely repel Russia with the increasing addition of aircraft, newly arriving MBTs and advanced artillery? I don't know. It's too early to tell.

 

Makes sense to me.

Well, there is a bit more. The Black Sea has Russia's only Warm Water ports, which are critical to their defense in the Winter months. The Obama/Biden Administration dangled NATO membership in front of Ukraine, which Russia always said was a red line, they aren't going to have a NATO navy base next door to their only warm water port.

I think it's a stalemate at the current lines. And that continuing the slaughter at these lines runs about 100,000 lives/year and $100B/year.

 

The time to negotiate an end was when Ukraine fought so hard they had Russia on their back foot. Bribed Joe didn't want to, and now they are never going to drive the Russians out of the ethnically Russian areas of Ukraine.

Ukraine Flees Avdiivka

'Following a year that saw little change in control of territory, the Russian army has secured a major victory in its war in Ukraine as Ukrainian forces have retreated from the eastern city of Avdiivka.'

'Shortly after midnight Saturday in Ukraine, the country's newly-installed top commander, General Oleksandr Syrsky, announced that he had ordered troops to evacuate the city. Surrounded in three directions by the Russian army, Ukrainian soldiers in the city found themselves in a rapidly-tightening noose.'

“Based on the operational situation around Avdiivka, in order to avoid encirclement and preserve the lives and health of servicemen, I decided to withdraw our units from the city and move to defense on more favorable lines," said Syrsky in a Facebook post.

 

I have not bothered to check on what sort of cope the usual suspects who want to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian have come up for this clear military defeat. However I'm sure they won't consider it a defeat.

 

The last US dollar and the last drop of Ukrainian blood.

Now that they have another mideast war, they don't seem as committed to the Bloody Ukrainian/Russian stalemate.

 

It happens when you hang with progressives.

 

I doubt that dangling NATO membership, which they are not qualified to get, is much incentive,
but directly bribing Zelenskyy worked really well.