It’s Time to End Magical Thinking About Russia’s Defeat

All is proceeding as I have foreseen...

It’s Time to End Magical Thinking About Russia’s Defeat

Putin has reason to believe that time is on his side. At the front line, there are no indications that Russia is losing what has become a war of attrition. The Russian economy has been buffeted, but it is not in tatters. Putin’s hold on power was, paradoxically, strengthened following Yevgeny Prigozhin’s failed rebellion in June. Popular support for the war remains solid, and elite backing for Putin has not fractured.

Western officials’ promises of reinvigorating their own defense industries have collided with bureaucratic and supply-chain bottlenecks. Meanwhile, sanctions and export controls have impeded Putin’s war effort far less than expected. Russian defense factories are ramping up their output, and Soviet legacy factories are outperforming Western factories when it comes to much-needed items like artillery shells.

The technocrats responsible for running the Russian economy have proven themselves to be resilient, adaptable, and resourceful. Elevated oil prices, driven in part by close cooperation with Saudi Arabia, are refilling state coffers. Ukraine, by contrast, depends heavily on infusions of Western cash.

None of this should come as a surprise. More than six months before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Putin signed off on a new National Security Strategy for Russia. The main thrust of that document was to prepare the country for a long-term confrontation with the West. Today Putin can tell the nation that his strategy is working.

But now is the time to transition to a long-term strategy that increases and sustains the pressure on the rogue regime in the Kremlin. There should be no illusions that any possible combination of short-term steps will be sufficient to force Putin to abandon his war.

What Western leaders conspicuously haven’t done is level with their publics about the enduring nature of the threat from an emboldened, revisionist Russia. They have indulged all too often in magical thinking—betting on sanctions, a successful Ukrainian counter-offensive or the transfer of new types of weapons to force the Kremlin to come to the negotiating table. Or they have hoped to see Putin overthrown in a palace coup.


Check, check, and check. I would sure like to hear from the many pro-war folks on the forum. I'm curious as to what the new talking points are, or if there is finally some reality breaking through?

 

I disagree with the idea that Ukraine should just bend the knee to a fascist invasion from terrorist forces.

 

So while our country is suffocating under national debt and inflation.... How many more hundreds of billions of dollars do progressive think that we should spend on some other country?

 

There is nothing magical about Russia's defeat. It is simply math being applied.

 

@Lil Mike

In the Latest U.S. and World News forum, it is a requirement that your O.P. uses a linked source. I assume the italicized bulk of your post, is that source (you don't add very much of your own "argument")-- but where is the link? I had wanted to check what specific steps the author was recommending, "to transition to a long-term strategy that increases and sustains the pressure on the rogue regime in the Kremlin." Nor do you provide any details, of what the alternative to our current course, entails.


P.S.-- While it remains to be seen if the, currently anonymous, author may have predicted a better, long term approach-- you certainly had not: your fear of Putin's reaction, has had you, from the start, advocating for us to stay completely out of the conflict. For whatever criticisms this article offers toward the current approach, it seems clear that it does concur with the view that the free world must oppose Russia's aggression (the clue, is in the description "rogue regime"). IOW, it would be your neutrality approach which it would define, as the far bigger "fail."

 

Did Putin drink from the Holy Grail and is now immortal? He must’ve since Putin thinks time is on his side. Lol. The guy is gonna die in a few years, if he isn’t already.

 

I think Lil Mike wants all that money to go back to Biden to spend here because he loves Biden spending money here and thinks Biden will be very wise in all his democratic constituencies that he thinks Biden will spend it on.

…which is weird because I think lil Mike is a Republican…

 

Right-- Lil Mike neglected to snip whatever alternate course, the author is advocating. In fact, he also neglected to provide a link for his source-- probably because his snipped article, still has the perspective that Putin need be stopped, by the rest of the world. This person is merely suggesting different tactics (which I would be interested to consider). The problem for Lil Mike, is that his position, has always been that we should ignore the actions of Russia's "rogue regime," provided that these actions are not directly aimed at us.

 

You are quite correct. When I post an article, I usually post the link in the title. Guess I forgot this time. Anyway, here it is:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/othe...al-thinking-about-russia-s-defeat/ar-AA1k28ij

 

If you foresaw the Humas/Isreal conflict, you get credit. Otherwise, times up I agree, sides need to get reoriented...I dont even reconize some of my fellow right or leftists.

Principles: Constitution, check.
Social justice, liberty, capitalism, Universal healthcare...im missing a few ill get back to ya.

Edit: Incentives to guarantee a 40 hour work week pays 150% a states unemployment rate.

Thats still team blue?

 

Oh no, I didn't foresee the current Hamas/Israel war, other than I knew that there would be another one eventually, and heck, everyone knew that.

But I did foresee that there just wasn't any way that Ukraine could win this war, even with Western help. The only thing that could have turned the tide was NATO entering into the war, and considering how that would be World War III, that seemed a bit unlikely. Although crazy statements from western leaders did give a scare a time or two.

 

If Russia was smart they'd start calling themselves Hamas 2.

 

It would get the college kids behind them!

 

The first sentence was the point.
Iv seen the back and forward about the rest, thats all.

 

I've looked at some of the battle info. Russia is incredibly incompetent to the point that their tactics look like suicide. They just run into the meat grinder over and over with ridiculous casualties.

 

Hell every leftist in the country would be flying Russian flags tomorrow.

 

That more describes Ukraine's military strategy over the past year.

 

Well the college kids loved the Soviet Union at one time. So it could happen.

 

They all certainly love Hamas.

 

Yea thats strange....

 

The Russian morale is at an all time low. Drug usage is rampant. Their equipment is junk. The Wagner group is a wild card with their commander being killed.

Check out the Russian attack on Avdiivka.

 

Why is it strange?

 

Because neither side supports liberty.

 

Are you saying that Israel, the only multi-cultural, multi-religious democratic country in thousands of miles, that is 21% Arab, doesn't support liberty?

 

I confess..Im thoroughly confused.