It’s Time to End Magical Thinking About Russia’s Defeat

Heh, see post #124

 

See post 125.
And I defy you you show me any Ukrainian politician or soldier who thinks 'victory is just around the corner'.

 

Hmmm...not much of a question:

Well if you define a Ukrainian victory as NOT getting back their lost territory, then yes, a Ukrainian victory as possible. It sounds a lot like defeat to me, but if you are recognizing that, then it sounds as if some sort of peace plan can be hammered out today.

However I don't think Zelenskyy is clued into your definition of "victory."

 

The truth is that there is no path to Ukrainian victory. The mismatch in size, population, and resources is too great. Ukrainian fighting forces have been kept viable by massive amounts of NATO training and material supplies, and NATO is apparently determined to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian. Russia is turning this conflict into a war of attrition which Ukraine cannot possibly win.

 

And Russia is doing so great at winning right now

Do you think that ALL people should submit to fascism or just Ukrainians?

 

That's a lame response....and inaccurate.

 

Is that why North Korea and China are supplying RuZZkis with everything including the kitchen sink.

 

RuZZia always "wins"....Afghanistan,Chechnya, Nagorno-Karabakh, Caucasus, former SU, Warsaw Pact.....LOL.

 

Lol, exactly. Man, lucky for Russia that the whole Chechnya thing is over, right?

 

Yep....Ramzie got it all under control.....LOL.

 

And your deliberately choosing to ignore Putin's stated aims and objectives at the start of the war when looking at the reality the ground now. Russia has failed to achieve any of those objectives. Ukraine on the other hand has recaptured about a third of the territory it lost to Russia after the war began and is still advancing - slowly.

At the moment Russia doesn't control the entirety of a single Ukrainian Oblast, not one! How is that 'winning'?

At the end of the day when this war is over it's almost certain neither side will achieve all of their stated war aims. Ukraine will not regain all of it's lost territory but Russia? It won't have achieved any of its prewar goals. By all objective measures Ukraine will be far, far closer to a strategic victory, even if it's only a partial one than Russia will be. The best Putin will achieve is only a marginal gain in territory seized and even then only at horrendous cost.

 

Whatever territory that RuZZia "occupies" will be rife with insurgency and partisan activity.....whereas the rest of Ukraine will be pumped full of $$$, resources, military aid, probably a member of EU/NATO.

Putler possibly did Ukraine a favor in the occupied areas.....he's managed to cull the most vociferous Pro RuZZki supporters by sending them to slaughter in Bakhmut and Avdivka....so when it come time to liberate those areas....it'll be a much easier time to reintegrate those areas.

 

Again. Would you call it a victory for the US of it had invaded Ukraine and achieved the same results that Russia has? Yes or no? Answer.

 

By the magic of grit, determination and HIMARS, rashka is slowly but surely being defeated.

Update from Ukraine | Frontlines are Boiling Ukraine Advances on the South Ruzzia sends more forces

 

I realize I've been quite the disappointment to you.

 

I didn't ignore Putin's stated war aims, they are simply not relevant, and frankly, I don't even remember all of those goals being his stated war aims. But it couldn't be more irrelevant two years later. I'm talking about the actual war on the ground. Russia controls a great deal of Ukrainian territory, and if it keeps it, that's a gain for Russia and a loss for Ukraine. Or at least it is to my way of thinking. You've rationalized a position where Ukraine losing it's territory is a "win." I don't get it, but if are satisfied with that outcome, and can talk the Ukrainians into buying that, the war can end tomorrow.

 

Here is a better example: Mexico invades the US, the make gains along the Southwest but is stopped at some point and the war reaches a World War I-like stalemate. A cease fire is called and the US President declares "victory" because we stopped Mexico from taking any more territory. Based on how you decided what victory is, that really is a victory for America even while Mexico annexes former US territory.

I would say we lost that war, but you seem to have a wildly different take.

 

@Lil Mike I can't see how you keep replying to all this nonsense. They don't even know the stated goals; the background; what happened with BoJo; and those who think Putin wants to take territory currently occupied by Bandera lovers.....nope....not happening. That's MIC/Pentagon stupid talk. Fact is the Russians don't want that trash incorporated in their society.

How about those sanctions....any day now, right?

Russia’s Key Economic Sectors Shrug Off Sanctions

• Russia’s third quarter growth hits 5.5%, outpacing estimates
• Recovery shows limits of sanctions to punish Moscow over war

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...key-sectors-shrugging-off-sanctions#xj4y7vzkg

Russia's dominant lender Sberbank posts record Q3 profits

https://www.reuters.com/business/fi...Nov 2 (Reuters),from slumping profits in 2022.

 

The reason I keep discussing this issue is because their point of view is the dominate one in almost every institution in US society, not to mention the government, which is writing the checks to keep this going.

And it's instructive. Consider the article this thread is based on. It was originally a Wall Street Journal piece. The WSJ would never have posted anything this negative about the Ukraine project even 6 months ago. Now that reality is getting too hard to ignore, they are beginning the process of letting us down easy, and getting the public off of it's Slava Ukraini sugar high.

And considering the posts just in this thread, they are psychologically preparing for a defeat by calling it victory, as one poster intimated. This thread turned out to be quite a learning experience by how the "victory" and "defeat" are being redefined in order to always claim victory, not matter how bad the loss is.

Fascinating.

 

Well if we are getting back to reality, then I suppose western media will go back to these articles:


Russia isn't losing. There is no stalemate. They smartly built fortified defenses and waited on the great 'ukie counter-offensive' which was supposed to drive them into the Azov Sea. But all that has happened is the Russians have let the ukies impale themselves on mines/bullets/and bombs. ukie even started sending women to the meat grinder. They've toast, as is zelensky.

 

Completely the wrong analogy. Lets stick to the facts. The Russian/Ukrainian war involved a large and militarily powerful nation (Russia) invading a smaller and much weaker (militarily) neighboring state (Ukraine). NOT the other way round.

Mexico on the other hand is not even close to being a near peer adversary of the US and any invasion by Mexico would be doomed from the start. And you know it (or should if you live in the real world). There is no comparison between your example and the war in Ukraine.

 

FGS How can anyone's reason for staring a war not be relevant to any judgment of the outcome!!! Every war in history is judged a success or failure based on what the aggressors were attempting to achieve when they commenced it. There is no other way.

Hell our entire lives are like that in many ways. We judge our successes or failures of a whole range of things by looking back at what we wanted 'going in' and where we expected to be at a given time versus the results have achieved when we get to the results we see today. Investments, jobs, marriages, you name it.

Do you invest money without any idea what kind of returns you expect to see at a given time in the future? Do you think someone who bought into Amazon stocks when it went public is disappointed by the results of their decision ? Did they 'win' or lose? What about investors in Theranos, who did the same? Do you think they're 'high fiving' each other over how well their plans worked out?

To make it simple for you (because you seem to need it). From Putin's and Russia's perspective the Ukrainian war has turned into a very, very bad investment. It's their Theranos. Not their Amazon.

 

Great pics Bill.....how's the 3 day op going.

Crimea getting hit on a daily basis.....Mafiosi figured it was an impenetrable fortress?......wtf happened?

 

Don't be so rough on yourself Mikey....there's always room for improvement.

 

What you describe there is EXACTLY what has happened to NATO/UKRAINE.

One need not be a West Point graduate to understand that 2 years ago. Russia is defending itself from military aggression by the West and the leftover Nazis from WWII