It's the debt ceiling again!

If you think the freedom caucus is about freedom, you are grossly mistaken.

 

At least there's now a D-date:

 

So 6/6 will be a new version of D-Day
Default-Day as the collapse of the US economy begins

 

Is this finally it:

 

May not pass the house - and if it doesn't than the GOP is going to get the blame

 

This says the Dems didn't get anything they wanted:

 

So, what happened? Did Biden really just cave to McCarthy and is giving him everything in the House bill?

https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/27/politics/whats-in-the-debt-ceiling-deal/index.html

Seems like the new "compromise" has everything in it from the original GOP bill.

 

I think it will pass because the Dems will help it pass with about half of the GOP. After that, it may be a ticking time bomb for McCarthy if the deal is not what the Freedom Caucus wants. So far, the rumor is that the IRS budget is cut $1.9 billion and there are some work requirements for those on social safety nets. But all the other stuff is not in the plan, which is what the Freedom Caucus wanted. None of the Inflation Reduction Act, the Chips Act, and another act that the GOP faulted is not in the final version, thus, the Dems will vote for the new bill.

 

You will probably need 50+ dems to vote for it - none of the progressives will

 

Does not seem that way from the article. But we will see on Tuesday though.

 

there are not that many progressives, true progressives in the House. AOC may not vote for it, but most Dems will and half of the GOP will. So, it will pass. Senate is a different story, which means it will need all dems to vote for it to go to Biden. I think 30 Republicans in the Senate will not vote for it though.

 

Well you have Graham complaining that they did not increase military budget enough, while Paul complained that they increased it too much, so who knows...

 

What is in the article that shows the difference from the original GOP plan? I just don't see it. The cuts are all still there, work requirements are still there, the end of student loan forgiveness... I really don't see what the Dems get out of this "deal" at all.

 

If you are correct, it's likely due to the weak position the Speaker is in. I would never put it past the Trump Rs to cut their noses to spoil their faces with the hope that Biden gets the blame. We will find out soon enough...

 

Are you worried:

 

Here are the differences:

1. The compromise would have the 2024 remain relatively flat for the fiscal year 2024 and that based on adjustments would have an increase in spending limited to 1% for six years. Under the GOP plan, it would go back to 2022 and be a 1% increase for 10 years. The huge difference is the starting point. The compromise appears to be 2024, not 2022.
2. There are no cuts to VA benefits that the GOP plan would have done in their original plan.
3. IRS budget is cut for one year, fiscal year 2023, which amounts to $1.9 billion. Nothing in the compromise would be altered in the IRS budget other than the 1% increase beginning in 2025. Under the GOP plan, this would have been eliminated altogether.
4. Under the GOP plan and the compromise, the worker requirements remain in tact. The problem is however, at what rate. No one is talking about that. The GOP plan is an increase of 80 hours at a much-accelerated rate. This compromise keeps the worker requirement but everyone on both sides is mum on the particulars. However, per the article, those who are on Medicaid would not be included in the new work requirements which the GOP insisted in their plan.
5. Student loans would be required to be repaid starting sometime in the summer, but Biden will still be allowed, unless the courts intervene, the $20k forgiveness loans program for those who apply. I think there is a bill in the house that would eliminate all forgiveness programs but that even has not made it out for a vote to the house floor yet.
6. Finally, maintain climate and clean energy issues that the GOP wanted in the original plan.

There are differences, significant differences between the original GOP bill and the compromise. This compromise, more or less, threw the Freedom Caucus under the bus IMO. From 2025, everything else will be negotiated until the debt crisis rears its ugly head again in two years and who knows who will be POTUS and who will control the House and Senate.

 

Which is why Yellen has pushed back the deadline from June 1st to June 6th. The House will pass with both a significant number of Republicans and Democrats passing the bill either on Tuesday night, late night, or Wednesday Night. But the Senate is a different story and any one Republican can hold that bill indefinitely, like Rand Paul, Tuberville, or MIke Lee for instance. This is probably something that Senator McConnell does not want at all to happen. And then of course, there may be more amendments in the house and Senate that could gum up the works if those amendments are passed based on House rules or the Senate rules.

 

Caution: It is not over yet. Raising the debt ceiling must be approved by the House and the Senate.

The Republicans backed down on most of their demands, and the House bill to raise the debt ceiling, but gutted the Biden administration was forgotten. This is not a surprise. They were wrong to hold the American economy and the American people hostage for demands they could not obtain through ordinary means.

The Guardian reports, "Joe Biden and Kevin McCarthy have reached an agreement to lift the US debt ceiling and avoid a disastrous and unprecedented default. Prior to the details being presented to lawmakers, ahead of an expected vote on Wednesday, here is what sources familiar with negotiations have revealed:
Cap on discretionary spending
The deal would suspend the $31.4tn debt ceiling until January 2025, allowing the government to pay its bills. In exchange, non-defense discretionary spending would be “roughly flat” at current year levels in 2024. It would increase by only 1% in 2025.
What about the 2024 presidential election?
The debt limit extension schedule means Congress would not need to address the deeply polarizing issue again until after the November 2024 election. Note: In other words, a two-year deal.
Increased defense spending
The deal is expected to boost defense spending to around $885bn, in line with Biden’s 2024 budget spending proposal, an 11% increase from the $800bn allocated in the current budget.
Special IRS funding for federal tax authorities
Biden and Democrats secured $80bn in new funding for a decade to help the Internal Revenue Service enforce the tax code for wealthy Americans in last year’s Inflation Reduction Act.
Covid clawback, cuts for the CDC
Biden and McCarthy are expected to agree to claw back unused Covid-19 relief funds as part of the budget deal.
Work requirements
Biden and McCarthy battled fiercely over imposing stricter work requirements on low-income Americans who benefit from federal food and healthcare programs. No changes were made to Medicaid health insurance in the deal, but the agreement would impose new work requirements on low-income people who receive food assistance, up to age 54, instead of 50.

 

Thanks, I now see the updated version of the bill on CNN:

https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/27/politics/whats-in-the-debt-ceiling-deal/index.html

This seems to be a good compromise to me. Neither side is getting everything they want. Now, we'll see how the freedom caucus and the extreme progressive on the Dem side react to it. Maybe, their votes won't be needed.

 

Are you breathing a sigh of relief: