Ohio health official estimates 100,000 Ohioans already carrying coronavirus

Yes an interesting time when models which are generally considered illiberal are likely to be the best for the population. If France can make it an arrestable crime to be out and about when they should not, then Iran can and needs to imo. I must admit I have been thinking their numbers are questionable as well, mainly due to the first reported cases being deaths and shortly after so many infected including many members of Government. However Iran I also see as different from other countries given that it has been suffering from basically a siege for so long so I would not have expected it to be so able to deal with things like everyone else. Even with this going on I hear the lovely US government is increasing sanctions - that will be massive fines on countries which deliver medical supplies to Iran no doubt.

 

You are not the only one who thinks this way. This is the sentiment in Iran generally, and even among many experts in Iran and outside. But political chauvinism is getting in the way of sound public health policy.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/world/middleeast/coronavirus-iran-rouhani.html

 

Sounds like a very difficult situation. China's shut down was brutal though seemingly very effective.

Do you think Iran may be getting the two extremes - do nothing or a very strong army response? Do you think there is any possibility of a coup? I have heard both that Iranians are terrified and doing everything they can to keep themselves safe and ignoring it wanting into mosques and acting in other ways which will encourage the spread. On top of everything Iran has been through do you think this might be the last straw. Why do you think they cannot come to a compromise?

 

You are answering a post that is a week old. I have no idea what triggered all the other stuff in your post. Maybe venting?

Coronavirus Pandemic: 90 cases in Ohio; What you need to know

Ohio has 90 confirmed cases of the coronavirus, according to the Ohio Department of Health. Of those, 26 have been admitted to a hospital. There have been no related deaths.

Also Wednesday, confirmed and presumptive positive cases of COVID-19 were reported in Dayton, Kettering and Miami County.

In Dayton, the Dayton VA Medical Center confirmed that one of its patients tested positive for COVID-19.
https://www.whio.com/news/local/cor...u-need-know-wednesday/kdUhrsZ1Ny4e6qiEPbrHNN/

 

Iran could never do what China did even if it wanted to. Different culture, different system, and different rules. The idea that Iran is very 'authoritarian' is itself misleading. Iran is basically a country with many 'chiefs and few Indians'!

The army response that the Rouhani administration has prevented would NOT be anything like an extreme. It would be taking prudent measures like closing the highways to traffic for people going to vacation and such! The reason the Rouhani administration opposes it isn't some concern for civil liberties or such, but it is mainly because of political reasons and something which (for simplicity's sake) we can refer to as a "turf war".

I doubt we would have a military coup. It is more likely than anytime previously, but the most likely scenario would be for the military to convince Iran's Supreme Leader to take a more active or proactive stance against the Rouhani administration. Under Iran's constitution, the president can be impeached and removed by the parliament and given the makeup of the parliament after the last elections, if the Supreme Leader gave a green light for this move, Rouhani would be removed quickly.

Iran is a large country of 80 million, with different cultural, political, and socio-economic divisions among other divisions. Many Iranians are (more or less) following the government's advice and staying home as much as possible. Others aren't. A small number are even taking the type of reckless acts you mentioned, including some religious people who are protesting the closure of religious sites and shrines. Overall, however, a challenge and opportunity facing Iran is that the Persian New Year (kicks in full gear in less than 24 hours with the March equinox and the start of Spring) is a time when Iranians visit relatives, friends and travel extensively. There are many people who will continue the same thing even if taking some minor precautions. Travelers being interviewed while waiting behind highway toll lines as to why they were traveling had different responses: one of them mentioned he had been married less than a year and it was his first New Year with his wife and didn't want to start the new year in his marriage staying at home. Others had different stories, but the totality in numbers of people travelling still is high. That is the challenge that could have easily been handled by the kind of measures the revolutionary guards wanted to take but Rouhani refused, since while their stories were understandable, none was compelling enough to justify the risks. The New Year period is also an opportunity if the government acts appropriately because for the next 14 days (besides hotels and restaurants and such), most other businesses are either closed or semi-closed and also on vacation too. It would make enforcing closures easier and more natural.

Whether this will be the straw to break down Iran or not remains to be seen. So far, Iran is actually doing much better you would expect despite the challenges. Possibly because Iran has always had to prepare for the possibility of war and such, there is enough supplies of most basic things for several months at least. But eventually, if the pandemic rises to some of the worst case scenarios mentioned, then obviously everything can collapse with it. Not just the health care system but more.

As for "compromise", I would be against it. First, you can't compromise with people who wish you ill. That is a recipe for even more harm than good. Second, if Iran's situation gets as bad as it might, then it won't find its solution outside either as very likely other countries would be similarly situated and dealing with their own problems. Overall, the message I would convey to you about Iran is that it is a very resilient, self-sufficient, country with a lot of resources to handle most things up to around the same point that will see others bend and break. What Iran needs right now is to fix its own house better and handle things the right way. In the past, we could afford the wasted resources (wasted by corruption, graft, inefficiency, turf wars, etc) and still get by. We can't afford that anymore.

 

Of course they have an idea. There is infection data from hundreds of thousands of cases and mortality data from ~10,000.

That is definitely enough to get an idea of the situation and to have an idea of the margin of error.

 

Absolutely right, Squid, and this would also be a time to really bring forth the most advanced robotic technology that we can put in action to minimize the continued spread of viruses and other contaminants.

Aside -- One suggestion I picked up here and there was that anything you receive in the mail or as a packaged delivery should be wiped down with a disinfectant tissue before opening! If you have none of these tissues (they're almost impossible to find in stores now), then get something like toilet tissue or a paper towel and wipe things down with rubbing alcohol or even hydrogen peroxide (still plentiful and very cheap just about everywhere).

. Meet the new UPS driver....

 

Thanks for the information. I did not tell you the worse tale I have heard about Iran, heard it only last night. An Iman I guess, saying that God had kept him safe all his life and would continue to do so now. They then said he died a week later from Covid-19

DW news is saying that the UK has 20 thousand troops on standby...for what I wonder. It seems most people are 'locking themselves down' before they are even told they can!

 

I can't advice you strongly enough to ignore most of the 'idiosyncratic' and 'personal' type stories that you may find about Iran in the western press. Most of them are tinged with propaganda and some of them are outright fabrications and lies.

The situation in Iran isn't nearly as dire as those who wanted to bring its regime down had hoped, but on the other hand, it is serious enough to warrant sterner measures than the Rouhani government is taking. But one way you should know that the situation isn't as serious as some where hoping, is going to your google satellite map and looking at the traffic in the highways leading out of Tehran towards people's vacation destinations. The highways are packed and even though New Year holiday travel (discouraged around the clock) is down 50%, that is still a huge number traveling. And they are traveling because, ultimately, most Iranian families have only "heard" about "other people" dying and such from the virus. If they had some close family member die, they would take these warnings perhaps more seriously (as they should). If they take it seriously, Iran will actually have a handle over the epidemic because the rising numbers in Iran aren't showing a significant upward curve and in fact is rising at a declining rate. As a result, the number of "active cases" in Iran is already below many European countries, in particular Italy, Spain, and Germany (our total confirmed cases are above those in Spain and Germany, but once you take out the concluded cases where there has been a recovery or death, the active numbers are lower than those countries).

Here is a picture of one of the highways leading out of Tehran.


Below is a picture of a road leading to the Caspian sea, showing the traffic heading in that direction.


https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/iran-press-review-coronavirus-nowruz-travel-warning-ignore
Iranian press review: Iranians ignore coronavirus travel warning ahead of Nowruz holiday

 

Here are more pictures to give a better sense about how Iran is so far reacting towards travel during the Persian New Year.

 

They have no ****ing clue.
There are vastly higher numbers of people infected than there are reported infections.
The vast majority aren't tested.
Is this hard?

 

The nonsense in the content of the post has not changed

CONFIRMED,.....Requires being tested

You believe there is a pandemic yet only 90 people in Ohio carry the virus? That's the funniest thing I've ever heard.

 

Yes, it is hard. But it is not impossible and they have a very good idea because they have a significant amount of data.

Obviously there is not enough data, but it is objectively wrong to claim that they have zero idea.

 

You cannot have data on people you haven't tested.

 

That's akin to saying you can't have census data unless you answered the census.

Statistical sampling and margins of error are a thing.

 

I am going to have to take a rain check on this because it just is not how the virus works. It is a super dooper infectious virus and the only way which China found to stop it, if it has, was to shut everyone down.....so maybe that is why people are suspicious that it is worse in Iran, and this is not always a desire, but it appears it is not acting in Iran as it is in other countries.

There has been another belief about the virus which included the places which have had big infections and in Iran left Tehran and other cities more or less free. That is that the virus is fussy about the air temperature and humidity. The places in Iran where it was reported you had the most cases fitted into that, Tehran did not...but people are beginning to think this is not what it happening.

Anyway wishing you and Iran well.

 

You are trying to put words in my mouth. It's okay. A lot debate challenge people tend to use that tactic. My point is that there was no way a week ago to confirm that there were 100,000 cases of virus in Ohio and I still doubt that at that time there was 100,000 cases. The doctor admitted that she was "guesstimating". I agree that testing is needed but all that other crap in your previous post was just you venting I guess since I didn't comment on any of it earlier.

 

That's what your post means whether you understand that or not.
It doesnt matter what words you use.

 

We are not statistically sampling anything.
You don't even undestand that much

 

Until they sample the population, which they have not, they have no idea.

If these numbers were not large, there would be no pandemic and this conversation would not be taking place.

 

The virus is all the things you mentioned and it has hit Iran hard, with cases and deaths in all 31 provinces in the country. It started in Qum and Rasht, but Tehran actually soon became the biggest epicenter for new infections and deaths. And remains in that position today.

The virus presents a serious problem, bigger than any Iran has faced in recent memory even counting the US maximum pressure campaign. It will cause substantial more damage still and that is not something to discount or take lightly either. Iran's Sharif University estimates that the virus can kill up to 120,000 people unless there are more stringent measures taken (such as the ones I mentioned). If it had been left totally unchecked, their estimate is that it could even kill 3.5 million, while their best case estimate still has 12,000 dying from the virus.

On the other hand, I am familiar with the sensational and propaganda stories about the situation in Iran and they aren't accurate either. The report that best captures the actual situation in Iran is ultimately the one from the WHO following their visit which I quoted earlier. The WHO estimates that the infections in Iran are 5 times the number of confirmed cases and my own estimate is even higher (I think Iran has probably 100,000-200,000 cases). My point isn't to discount what could happen in the future, or the magnitude of the problem, but to explain what has been the case in Iran so far based on the best and most credible reports, estimates and data available.

 

Many more people are dying from simple colds in Iran, and do every year, but nobody is freaking out about that.

 

Again trying to put words in my mouth. They call that "projection". They can also call that "assumption".

 

It's called you not understanding pandemic, exponential growth and lack of a proper sample population.
Enjoy your unemployment.
You'll learn to like it in time

 

I have already addressed in the differences between this virus and the flu and such and the difference applies as much to the US as it does to Iran. But I am also curious what you were referring to? Last time I had checked, Iran's death rate from the flu and such in Iran was around the same as in the US, if not maybe lower. Perhaps you can enlighten me and tell me how you reached your conclusions about Iran?