Rebel offensive in Syria gains ground as Russian military presence fades.

Discussion in 'Latest US & World News' started by zoom_copter66, Nov 29, 2024.

  1. Pro_Line_FL

    Pro_Line_FL Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Yes, be prefers Brighteon, which has literally zero credibility.
     
  2. Scott

    Scott Well-Known Member

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    When are you going to tell what you think of those two articles? Also, what do you think of those sources I cited in post #202?
     
  3. Pro_Line_FL

    Pro_Line_FL Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I just told you. Your source is one of the most discredited sources on the internet. It has zero credibility.
     
  4. LibDave

    LibDave Newly Registered

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    [​IMG]


    I've posted an outdated map (due to the rapid battlefield pace) in the hopes of fostering the military analysis.

    Early on US forces deployed in the Western desert of Iraq aligned with Kurdish-led forces in the far North Eastern corner of Syria. The Kurd's also occupied adjacent areas just inside Turkey. The Kurd's were the largest demographic in the world not to have a sovereign government. Neither Turkey nor Iraq were on good terms with the Kurd's and both have a long history of driving the Kurd's out of their respective territories. As a result, the Kurd's would frequently ebb and flow back and forth between the mountainous regions of Turkey and Iraq in response to whatever threat to their survival was most pressing. The Kurd's are a poor but hardy people well familiar with the hardships of war. ISIS (a Muslim caliphate) gained control across the Euphrates valley (seen flowing from Northern Syria to the South East dividing Eastern Syria from the more populated regions of Syria to the West). ISIS largely controlled the region of this map now colored as Kurdish-led forces as well as some regions of Western Iraq where they routinely engaged in hit-and-run attacks on US forces in IRAQ. Of great importance is the understanding the economically vital oil reserves of Syria are all in this region East of the Euphrates. ISIS was funding their insurgency with these oil reserves. With the US routinely engaging ISIS in Iraq and Eastern Syria under Obama the Russians stepped in providing support for the Assad regime. In 2016 during Obama's last year in office the Assad regime and Russia surrounded Aleppo (a city of 2 million people) and bombed it out of existence. By far the greatest violation of military law since the holocaust. We will never know the true extent of the loss of life. Conservative estimates place the number of civilian deaths greater than 600,000 and perhaps as high as over 1 million. The Russians and Syrians dropped hundreds of chemical munitions on the defenseless civilians in Aleppo including hospitals and elementary schools. The carnage was unimaginable. Obama did nothing in spite of his declaration chemical weapons would be his "red-line" for triggering US involvement.

    In 2017 Secretary of Defense Maddis under the Trump administration (arguably the most capable military strategist of our times if not history) met with and aligned with the Kurd's in NE Syria to eliminate ISIS. The US provided ~1000 advisors and military intelligence (satellite and communications et al) as well as substantial air support based in Western Iraq for the Kurd's. The Kurd's of course provided the preponderance of boots-on-the-ground and did all the close-in fighting.

    The Kurd's made rapid advances in Eastern Syria towards the Euphrates. Russia (a close ally of the Assad regime) having joined the fight on the side of the Assad regime established two large airbase capabilities (one in Tartus and another North of Tartus also along the Mediterranean coast). The situation was quite tense with US and Russian forces acting in such close proximity not to mention at least a handful of adversarial rebel groups and ISIS throughout Syria. One of the most convoluted battle theaters in military history. Maddis and then US ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley negotiated a process designed to prevent accidental engagement between Russian/Syria/US forces. The negotiated process set up a hotline phone communication between Maddis and his Russian counterpart. The US was to operate exclusively East of the Euphrates while the Russians were given autonomy over the regions West of the Eurphrates. Should either receive or deliver fire across the river they were to first verify with their counterpart the targets weren't US or Russian. Turkey aligned with various rebel groups along the northern border with Turkey. So the US was aligned with the Kurds with large capable air assets in Iraq, Russian aligned with Assad, and the Turks aligned with various rebel forces in northern Iraq. The Turkish weren't particularly happy with US support of the Kurd's and the US wasn't particularly happy with the rebel forces aligned with Turkey causing some tension between the two NATO allies.

    Such was the situation in Syria throughout the ebb and flow of the civil war since 2017. Putin's interests were to bolster support for his long time ally Assad. However, Russia could ill-afford to finance the Syrian conflict. Russia obtained concessions from Syria to repay Russian costs with future oil revenues once the uprising was put down. Putin assured his oligarch's the investment would bear fruit once a favorable outcome was achieved. With the assistance of Russia willing to commit all manner of war crimes the Assad regime largely succeeded in suppressing the various rebel factions West of the Euphrates. The problem for Putin and Assad was, even with control of most of Western Syria, all of oil reserves promised to Russia as repayment were under the control of the Kurd's and the US. Once Russia/Syria largely secured Western Syria they had no prospects of recouping the tremendous costs of the conflict. This was the brilliance of General Maddis/Haley/Trump. Russia began to realize they would never be able to obtain their prize unless they made the unthinkable move to attack the US/Kurdish forces on the Eastern side of the Euphrates (a clear violation of the UN agreement and an act of war with the US). Essentially "crossing the Rubicon" wasn't a particularly viable option for the Russians, yet barring this decision they would never succeed in their objectives. In January of 2018 Putin decided to attack US forces across the Euphrates thinking Trump/Maddis would back down, not wanting to get into a larger conflict directly with Russian forces. However, Putin conducted this operation with Russian forces who were "officially" not Russian but rather a group of mercenary forces not under Russian control or direction. This would give Putin the ability to disavow Russian involvement.

    Two pontoon bridges were constructed by the Russians about 3 miles opposite the main petroleum distribution hub just East of the Euphrates. For several weeks Maddis communicated with his Russian counterpart asking if these were Russian forces. The Russians according to plan of course denied these forces were in any way Russian. Of course Maddis/Trump weren't naive to the true allegiance of these forces. Few mercenary groups come equipped with over 750 tanks and 100's of armored personnel carriers. In mid-February the Russians made their move and a massive force moved across the bridges towards the Oil distribution center. They got within a mile of the hub and fired a shot which landed several hundred yards short. Within minutes they were engaged by a massive onslaught of US air assets. Dozens of Apaches, A10's, MLRS, and even C130 gunships had been pre-positioned by Maddis, who had been watching and anticipated the Russian attack. Maddis blew the bridges constructed across the river once all the Russian forces had crossed giving them no ability to retreat. Over the next few days Maddis mercilessly pummeled the Russian forces. All the while contacting his Russian counterpart asking if the forces were Russian. Putin lost his nerve and refused to admit they were his forces. Maddis continued to absolutely bitch-slap the "mercenary" forces. The Russians were radioing back (in Russian) BEGGING to request the Americans be called off. Putin left his men out-to-dry refusing to admit he was responsible. After days of brutal fire Maddis dropped leaflets telling the forces if they wished to withdraw they could leave their weapons behind, strip down to their white underwear, and swim back across the Euphrates. Several survivors (there were few) left their equipment and began entering the water clothed to swim back only to be strafed. The Russian forces got the message and stripped down to their briefs. Maddis WAS NOT playing! Initially the Russians claimed a handful of Russian citizens acting on their own behalf had died. Later he was forced to admit it was around 250 when mothers back home in Russia began receiving notifications. The US, not wanting to publicize the events downplayed Russian casualties. Independent media estimate the true casualites were in the thousands including an estimated 750 tanks and hundreds of APC's. To my amazement domestic media in the US hardly covered the battle.

    “I come in peace. I didn’t bring artillery. But I’m pleading with you, with tears in my eyes: If you f-ck with me, I’ll kill you all.” - Maddis

    In Afghanistan Maddis spoke to the troops to detail the new rules of engagement. He then proceeded to pull out a blank piece of paper and stare at it for 60 seconds saying, not a word. "Now that we've cleared that up, stay safe and when threatened kill the enemy."

    That pretty much ended Putin's notions about altering the reality on the ground in the Syrian civil war. The situation remained somewhat static from that point on though the fighting continued. Under Maddis/Trump total US casualties throughout the entire Syrian theater were a total of 2 though Kurdish casualties have been substantial. The Kurd's have proven to be ferocious warriors, unafraid to take the fight to the enemy. One was a Major with a heart condition who suffered a heart attack while in theater (considered a combat casualty) and another occurred when a Humvee was driven into a ditch by an inexperienced Kurdish driver.

    With the lines fairly stable, Putin slowly changed his focus to Ukraine and bled away his air assets. Likely the most successful military operation in US history. Maddis is a genius. Some time later after requesting GB, France and Germany carry the burden in Syria rather than having the US pay for the operation and put our troops in harms way, our allies declined. Trump announced he would pull out in 48 hours stating, "Why are we paying and putting our troops in jeopardy. We are the world's largest exporter of oil, while our allies are the ones reliant on Syrian oil instead of buying from the US?". Our allies went into a panic and began frantically pleading with Trump to reconsider. Maddis was so upset Trump was throwing away such a fruitful victory resigned as Sec. of State and wrote a scathing resignation statement. Trump informed the allies they had 48 hours. Within 48 hours French, German, and British troops began arriving in Eastern Syria to hand off responsibilities. Trump then made an announcement he would delay our withdrawal for 4 weeks to give them more time to acclimate to the theater. Trump has a strange manner of getting what he wants, but it works and he always acts in the interest of America. He doesn't tolerate allies that shirk what is rightfully their responsibility. The area colored Kurdish-led forces is still being held by British, German, French and most of all a lot of Kurd's.

    With Turkish forces in the North and the Kurd's controlling Eastern Syria, Iran had only a single route to supply Syrian and Lebanese (Hezbollah) forces. This is the Baghdad to Damascus highway. It passes into Syria directly through the region of the map labeled Al-Tanf deconfliction zone. Due to a strong US presence in the deconfliction zone, Russia and Iran were forced to supply the Assad regime and Hezbollah forces in Syria from the Lebanese ports on the Mediterranean coast through Lebanon's (Bekaa Valley) into Syria from the West. In what I can only surmise was a coordinated effort between Turkish forces and Israel forces, Israel destroyed these supply lines through Lebanon. Turkish backed rebel forces recently fortified by Turkey then made a sudden push into Assad's unsupplied/unfed/unprepared forces. This resulted in a complete collapse of Assad's forces in very short order. Biden has stepped in to claim credit but I'm convinced Israel deserves the credit and to a lesser extent Turkey. Netanyahu isn't concerned with credit, he trades in results.

    What the future holds is interesting. The US considers the Turkish back rebels a terrorist organization (though they have gone to great effort recently to downplay their terrorist roots). There are several of these rebel groups with a loose control in Syria at the moment. None of which are loved by the US or even each other. But with Turkish help a satisfactory result may be accomplished. And there is still the issue of control of the oil reserves by the Kurds East of the Euphrates river as a bargaining chip. I would suggest a favorable outcome may be concluded through mutual interests and a peace loving democracy may result in Syria. Trump has his work cut out for him in Syria.
     
  5. Pro_Line_FL

    Pro_Line_FL Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Israeli warplanes pound Syria as troops reportedly advance deeper into the country
    https://www.yahoo.com/news/israeli-warplanes-pound-syria-troops-083757249.html
    DAMASCUS, Syria (AP) — Israel carried out a wave of heavy airstrikes across Syria as its troops advanced deeper into the country, a Syrian opposition war monitor said Tuesday. Israel denied its forces were advancing toward Damascus after they pushed into a buffer zone inside Syria following the overthrow of President Bashar Assad.

    Israel has also said it is striking suspected chemical weapons sites and heavy weapons to prevent them from falling into the hands of extremists. Israeli officials rarely acknowledge individual strikes.

    The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which has closely tracked the conflict since the civil war erupted in 2011, said Israel has carried out more than 300 airstrikes across the country since the rebels overthrew Assad.
     
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  6. zoom_copter66

    zoom_copter66 Well-Known Member

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    Mopping up operations?
     
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  7. Durandal

    Durandal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Turkish and US-backed forces clash in Syria after Assad regime collapse


    The faction situation there is pretty complex. Apparently the IS extremists don't like HTS because they don't have global caliphate ambitions and are not a jihadist group. HTS has, however, been seeking to get rid of Russia and Iran in Syria, so no doubt they're the ones Russia had been most keen to bomb and keep at bay.
     
  8. zoom_copter66

    zoom_copter66 Well-Known Member

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    Whatever Orcs are left in Syria(dumb as they may be), are going to find themselves in the middle of some major $hitstorms with the US,Turks, and other rebel factions on the ground as situations rapidly unfold.

    Pootler won't be able to help them much other than look on helplessly .
     
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  9. The Scotsman

    The Scotsman Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    .....this is going to be one huge great big clusterf*ck......or should I say....another huge clusterf*ck merely melding into the even bigger clusterf*ck which is the Middle East.....
     
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  10. Durandal

    Durandal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    An "end of the beginning" moment for Syria's overall transformation, perhaps? Now that the regime is finally gone, there is more chaos to be reordered into whatever is to come.
     
    Last edited: Dec 10, 2024
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  11. The Scotsman

    The Scotsman Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    ...not my part of the world....I keep well clear of the Middle East.....it's like one of those places where they're probably just best left to do what they want....:wall:.
     
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  12. Durandal

    Durandal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Problem is there are others working to control it, as Russia and Iran were doing by propping up Assad, and the geography of the region makes it perilous to ignore in strategic terms.
     
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  13. zoom_copter66

    zoom_copter66 Well-Known Member

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    I suspect it'll be chaotic for a while.
     
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  14. The Scotsman

    The Scotsman Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    ...I'm probably being reaaalllly naive but as I said I don't go in for the Middle East much, but for me I'd bet it's all about the money....take the foreign aid away and all the UN / aid slush funds and whatever and I'd bet pretty much all these little groups disappear...I saw it in Northern Ireland which was merely gangsterism masquarading as some sort of bastardisation of religion and marxism under which the ethno-nationalists...the IRA and all these other Catholic and Protestant gangsters pretended to operate under.....was all just about money...a couple of people collecting huge gobs of cash manipulating a bunch stupid religious/political fanatics too wrapped up their petty racism/ideology to figure out they were just being played...and a population too scared to do anything about it for fear of being kneecapped....anyway.....what do I know
     
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  15. Durandal

    Durandal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I mean, you've got Iran playing in there, Russia, Qatar, the US and UK, et al. All sorts of outside actors with money and weapons to throw around because the region is just so important thanks to all the oil and the shipping lanes, right? So you have different groups who are armed and trained and further emboldened to fight for independence or dominance, as you've pointed out, and our leaving would either see other groups win out or simply the other backers continuing the misery there without us, and then we would lose control and influence there and possibly lose much more because of that. That's my take on it.

    As messy and expensive as it may be, it must be deemed better than leaving and suffering the economic and geopolitical and strategic losses as a result. We wouldn't want Russia or China or Iran controlling the Strait of Hormuz. I figure Israel is a big old military outpost of sorts for keeping it more or less free, and Syria is important for Israeli security, and important to the Mediterranean, another vital part of that shipping corridor. Then, of course, there are possible oil pipeline considerations as well. There is just too much at stake for anyone to abandon it.
     
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  16. zoom_copter66

    zoom_copter66 Well-Known Member

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    The oil/gas pipeline is a major issue.

    Back sometime in 2012 or so Assad made sure that Arab "gas line" was never completed....with tacit support from the Kremlin since that would've cut into Gazproms profits BIGLY and would've supplied Europe without any BS disruptions by the Kremlin clown show.
     
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  17. Durandal

    Durandal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I wonder if that also helps explain the dwarf's attempts to buddy up with the Saudis. He has to be pretty scared of them and others in the region piping gas directly to Europe, as you say.
     
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  18. zoom_copter66

    zoom_copter66 Well-Known Member

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    Could be....if there starts to be a diversion of "road maps" of oil/gas lines that totally bypass Mafiosi...Gazprom/RuZzia is fvcked royally.

    Gazprom is close to bankruptcy now....their shares are maybe $2 or less??...dunno, the pipes going to China are going at a "discount" ....which afaic, is for nothing...LOL.
     
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  19. Durandal

    Durandal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I wonder how Sberbank is faring. Probably still up on all the excessive interest profits?
     
  20. The Scotsman

    The Scotsman Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    ....well as I said it's not my part of the world but simply speaking maybe this is one of those pivotal moments that countries now need to determine the overriding thrust of their foreign policies....does one actually want a rules based system or a confrontational system...if one actually wants a rules based system what are they prepared to do about it? Is one prepared to kinetically assert rights to freedom of navigation and building and protecting robust supply chains or is one content subcontracting that role third parties hoping their strength will provide that economic security needed to maintain a compliant population? Maybe it's time for the likes of NATO re-posture itself and to start actually asserting itself in the world; actually figuring out that globalisation was a balls-up and countries actually have to man up and protect their society and economies and figuring out the narratives to support such a stance? Maybe it's time that the US and China sat in some quiet little Macau restaurant and realised that the Iranian theocracy was actually a threat to the world and that it should be quietly and permanently eliminated along with the those Qatar's who enable it's various activities.....likewise the continued US support of Israel is actually acknowledged as merely a colossal money making scam run by some very expensive lobbyists in Washington who along with Israel are best cut loose to make their own way in the world as they really do serve no purpose what so ever....as I say it's not my part of the world....:D
     
  21. Durandal

    Durandal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    [​IMG]

    He even lost his expensive car collection, poor guy.
     
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  22. zoom_copter66

    zoom_copter66 Well-Known Member

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    Yep...quite a collection....Ferrari, Maserati, Porsche, Lamborghini?


    I think he stole about $135 billion from the state treasury before fleeing? Maybe he can buy a few LADAs while in Moscow.:)
     
    Last edited: Dec 11, 2024
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  23. Durandal

    Durandal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The US is striking targets across Syria, and it isn't the only one dropping bombs in this uncertain moment
    Jake Epstein
    Tue, December 10, 2024 at 9:33 PM CST

    • American warplanes pounded Syria with airstrikes as the Assad regime fell on Sunday.

    • They hit dozens of targets in support of the anti-ISIS mission, which officials say will continue.

    • The US isn't the only military conducting strikes amid the uncertain situation in Syria.
    https://www.yahoo.com/news/us-bombing-targets-across-syria-224825529.html

    I guess having the Russians and their puppet out of the way is both good and bad for containing IS in Syria. Bad in that they may get hold of more weapons and munitions and even recruits, but good in that the way is more clear for our boys and girls to pound them into the sand.
     
  24. Durandal

    Durandal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Vladimir Solovyov and Margarita Simonyan are upset about Syria


    The Syrian rebels certainly showed the Orcs how to do a 3 day Special Military Operation.
    :)
     
    Last edited: Dec 11, 2024
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  25. zoom_copter66

    zoom_copter66 Well-Known Member

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    Yep....by the time US/Isreali airstrikes are done....there won't be any functional Migs or SUs anywhere.
     
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