The Alternative Ukraine Thread

My hope is the same as yours, but we may just be indulging in wishful thinking. If it is Xi's goal to establish international preeminence then this episode is merely a stepping stone.

 

yeah..mebbe...but to be honest I can't see what the long term thinking is if using force is their goal. China doesn't (usually) get overtly aggressive and use force; their modus is to insinuate themselves into a country or region using money and economic influence rather then brute force. If Russia is going to be the model for tyrants going forward then why would China want to go down that route when they are doing just fine as they are? Let's wait and see huh!

 

The ominous possibility is that China has been biding time to gather strength to use force.

 

Counterintelligence officers show how they kill Russian soldiers with drones

Ukrayinska Pravda

 

World
The Daily Beast
Ukraine Claims Responsibility for Massive Blasts at Russian Base in Crimea Despite Kremlin’s Story

 

....yeah....buying Russian kit.....let's see how that works out for them...

 

Justice is coming.



Ukraine’s long-awaited southern counteroffensive begins with a bang in Crimea

 

Russian Offensive Campaign ...

Key Takeaways

• Russian forces conducted ground attacks to the southeast of Siversk and around Bakhmut.
• Russian forces conducted ground attacks north of Donetsk City and southwest of Donetsk City near the Zaporizhia-Donetsk Oblast border.
• Several large explosions hit Russian positions near Sevastopol and north of Crimea, but Russia did not blame Ukraine for them and Ukraine has not taken credit for them.
• Russia launched a surveillance satellite for Iran.
• Western media has reported that a Ukrainian counteroffensive is underway near Izyum, but the Ukrainian General Staff was notably completely silent about the area in its evening report.
• Russian sources suggested that recently-formed volunteer battalions are responsible for much of the Izyum sector.
• Ukrainian officials claimed that Russian forces continued to fire artillery systems from the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
• Russian officials are continuing to take prominent roles in preparing for the sham referenda in Russian-occupied regions despite Kremlin claims that Russia is not conducting the referenda. . . .

Russian forces maintained defensive positions along the southern frontline and did not conduct offensive operations on August 9. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces continued to launch airstrikes at Bila Krynytsya and Andriivka, in the vicinity of the Ukrainian bridgehead near the Inhulets River, and on Ukrainian positions in Olhine and Osokorkivka near the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border.[31] Russian forces also conducted aerial reconnaissance in northern Kherson Oblast and continued artillery fire along the line of contact in the region.[32] The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence (GUR) intercepted a Russian servicemen’s call in which he stated that Russian forces operating in Kherson Oblast do not have enough manpower to conduct an offensive operation.[33] Mykolaiv Oblast officials also reported that Russian forces shelled the outskirts of Mykolaiv City and launched rockets from the Uragan multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) at Bereznehuvate, approximately 20 km northwest of the Ukrainian bridgehead.[34]

Russian forces are reportedly continuing to neglect the Zaporizhia Oblast frontline in favor of Donetsk and Kherson Oblast efforts. Zaporizhia Oblast Military Administration Head Oleksandr Starukh noted that Russian forces are periodically concentrating forces in Zaporizhia Oblast to redistribute them to Donetsk or Kherson Oblast directions.[35] Starukh added that Ukrainian military command assesses a low risk of Russian offensive operation in Zaporizhia Oblast but specified that combat operations continue at the Zaporizhia-Donetsk Oblast border. The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command did not report any changes in the Russian troop composition in Kherson Oblast on August 9.[36]

Ukrainian officials maintained that Russian forces are continuing to fire using artillery systems situated at the territory of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP). The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces fired 80 Grad MLRS rockets at Nikopol from firing positions on the opposite bank of the Kakhovka Reservoir.[37] Starukh stated that Russian forces continue to use the territory of the Zaporizhzhia NPP to shell Nikopol and use the plant as a nuclear shield.[38]

Ukrainian officials and social media users reported several explosions at Russian military bases and ammunition depots across the Southern Axis on August 8 and August 9. Advisor to the Kherson Oblast Administration Serhiy Khlan reported that a Russian ammunition depot suffered secondary explosions for over an hour and a half in Novooleksiivka near Henichensk (approximately 35 km north of the Crimean border).[39] Russian and Ukrainian sources reported a series of explosions at the Russian Saky airbase in occupied Novofedorivka, western Crimean coast.[40] Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov also reported 10 explosions at Russian military bases in the western part of Melitopol.[41] Ukrainian officials have not taken responsibility for the strikes on Russian military infrastructure as of the time of this publication. The Southern Operational Command only confirmed that Ukrainian forces struck Russian positions in Snihurivka (approximately 31 km east of Mykolaiv City) and two command posts in the Berislav and Khersonskyi districts.[42] . . . .

 

Biden Formalizes US Support for Finland, Sweden NATO Membership Bids. President Joe Biden on Tuesday signed the instruments of ratification to formally back Sweden and Finland’s bids to join NATO. Biden called the endorsement “a watershed moment” that will create “greater security and stability not only of Europe and the US but of the world.” The Senate approved membership for the two Nordic countries last week in a rare 95-1 vote. Over half of the alliance’s 30 countries have also ratified Sweden and Finland’s candidacies so far. Associated Press New York Times Politico

 

EU Bans Russian Coal. An EU embargo on Russian coal imports goes into effect on Wednesday. The ban is part of the fifth package of EU sanctions against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. The EU agreed to the coal embargo four months ago as part of efforts to wean the bloc from Russian energy supplies. An EU ban on Russian oil will come into effect later this year. Bloomberg RFE/RL

 

Denmark to Train Ukrainian Forces in UK. Denmark is sending 130 military trainers to the UK to train Ukrainian troops there how to fight against Russian forces, according to Danish Defense Minister Morten Bodskov. He added that Denmark will also start training Ukrainian military officers on Danish soil. The Danish instructors will work with Canada, the UK, Netherlands and New Zealand in the training effort. Reuters

 

The partisans are coming.
Ukrainian Resistance Growing in Russian-Occupied Areas. The Associated Press is out with a report on Ukrainian guerilla forces’ escalating resistance movement against Russian occupiers in southeastern Ukraine. Resistance groups in the region have been killing pro-Moscow officials, destroying bridges and trains used by Russian forces, and giving the Ukrainian military coordinates on targets for long-range strikes. The growing resistance is likely to complicate Moscow’s plans to hold referendums in occupied areas on joining Russia. Moscow has reportedly sent anti-guerilla units to the Kherson area to counter the partisans. Associated Press

 

World
The Daily Beast
Ukrainian Secret Agents Are Scaring the Kremlin ****less With Deadly Explosions and Covert Poison Ops

 

(AP)
Ukraine Live Briefing: Russia ‘cannot feel safe in Crimea’ after air base blasts
A Ukrainian attack in Crimea would be a dramatic escalation in the war, demonstrating an ability by Ukrainian forces to strike at Russia far from the front lines.

 

World
Ukrayinska Pravda
Ukrainian soldier brings down Russian Su-25 attack jet

 

Soldiers fighting Russians have a new weapon. See what it can do

 

AP News
Russia struggles to replenish its troops in Ukraine

The prisoners at the penal colony in St. Petersburg were expecting a visit by officials, thinking it would be some sort of inspection. Instead, men in uniform arrived and offered them amnesty — if they agreed to fight alongside the Russian army in Ukraine.

Over the following days, about a dozen or so left the prison, according to a woman whose boyfriend is serving a sentence there. Speaking on condition of anonymity because she feared reprisals, she said her boyfriend wasn’t among the volunteers, although with years left on his sentence, he “couldn’t not think about it.”

As Russia continues to suffer losses in its invasion of Ukraine, now nearing its sixth month, the Kremlin has refused to announce a full-blown mobilization — a move that could be very unpopular for President Vladimir Putin. That has led instead to a covert recruitment effort that includes using prisoners to make up the manpower shortage. . . .

 

Satellite images show Russian warplanes destroyed in Crimea; Moscow's military exports under strain

 

Ukraine Says Russian Warplanes Destroyed in Crimea Blasts. Ukrainian officials said Wednesday that nine Russian warplanes were destroyed by explosions at the Saki air base in Crimea. Russia denies any warplanes were damaged in the blasts, but satellite imagery taken by Planet Labs showed at least eight fighter jets were blown up. Kyiv still did not claim responsibility for the explosions, which analysts say appear to have been caused by Ukrainian air strikes. If Ukraine’s military did hit the base, it would mark a major escalation in the war as the first attack on a major Russian military site in Crimea. Associated Press Reuters

 

Axios
Explosions at Russian base show Crimea now in play in Ukraine war

 

Russian Offensive Campaign ...

Key Takeaways

• Russian forces conducted ground attacks to the southeast of Siversk and around Bakhmut.
• Russian forces conducted ground attacks north of Donetsk City and southwest of Donetsk City near the Zaporizhia-Donetsk Oblast border.
• Several large explosions hit Russian positions near Sevastopol and north of Crimea, but Russia did not blame Ukraine for them and Ukraine has not taken credit for them.
• Russia launched a surveillance satellite for Iran.
• Western media has reported that a Ukrainian counteroffensive is underway near Izyum, but the Ukrainian General Staff was notably completely silent about the area in its evening report.
• Russian sources suggested that recently-formed volunteer battalions are responsible for much of the Izyum sector.
• Ukrainian officials claimed that Russian forces continued to fire artillery systems from the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
• Russian officials are continuing to take prominent roles in preparing for the sham referenda in Russian-occupied regions despite Kremlin claims that Russia is not conducting the referenda. . . .

Ukrainian officials and social media users reported several explosions at Russian military bases and ammunition depots across the Southern Axis on August 8 and August 9. Advisor to the Kherson Oblast Administration Serhiy Khlan reported that a Russian ammunition depot suffered secondary explosions for over an hour and a half in Novooleksiivka near Henichensk (approximately 35 km north of the Crimean border).[39] Russian and Ukrainian sources reported a series of explosions at the Russian Saky airbase in occupied Novofedorivka, western Crimean coast.[40] Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov also reported 10 explosions at Russian military bases in the western part of Melitopol.[41] Ukrainian officials have not taken responsibility for the strikes on Russian military infrastructure as of the time of this publication. The Southern Operational Command only confirmed that Ukrainian forces struck Russian positions in Snihurivka (approximately 31 km east of Mykolaiv City) and two command posts in the Berislav and Khersonskyi districts.[42] . . .

 

Western Countries Commit More Military Funds to Ukraine. Western countries on Thursday pledged 1.5 billion euros ($1.5 billion) worth of additional military support for Ukraine amid Russia’s invasion. The funds will be used to buy munitions for Ukraine’s military, train Ukrainian soldiers, and help demining operations in Ukraine. The commitment came from a group of 26 countries at a summit in Copenhagen. The defense ministers of Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic added at the meeting that they are willing to increase production of military equipment for Ukraine. Associated Press Reuters

 

Russia Scrambling for Soldiers in Ukraine. The Associated Press is out with a new report on Russia’s struggle to replenish its troops in Ukraine. The report says Russia is turning to covert recruitment efforts – such as enlisting prisoners in exchange for amnesty – to make up for manpower shortages. Such tactics are an alternative to full-blown mobilization, which could be very unpopular for President Vladimir Putin. The enlistment drive comes as Russia’s military suffers mounting losses in Ukraine and a growing number of Russian troops there are reportedly refusing to fight and seeking to quit. Associated Press

 

Has Ukraine beat back Russia and taken any territory back yet?

 

Yes, they have.