The percentage of deaths from Covid-19

Discussion in 'Coronavirus (COVID-19) News' started by pjohns, Apr 18, 2020.

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  1. pjohns

    pjohns Well-Known Member

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    The number suggested by WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus that we have heard repeatedly--3.4 percent (the supposed mortality rate for those who catch Covid-19)--has almost become gospel. After all, if something is repeated enough times, it becomes an accepted part of our database of knowledge.

    But now that figure is being challenged. And not just by President Trump, either.

    Assistant Secretary of Health Brett Giroir recently noted that "[t]he best estimates now of the overall mortality rate for Covid-19 is somewhere between 0.1 percent and 1 percent. That’s lower than you’ve heard probably in many reports."

    Yes, that is still a lot of Americans (although it is not 0.1 percent to 1.0 percent of all Americans; it is just that percentage of those who contact Covid-19.

    Perhaps it would be a reasonable thing to correct the record here...
     
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  2. Gatewood

    Gatewood Well-Known Member

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    0.1% is about what I am hearing nowadays as well. Or in other words, it's about the same mortality rate as any other average brand of influenza. So why the world wide and national panic -- aside from the fact that inside the United States the leftist-allied MSM took the political opportunity to panic the nation and then blame the resulting economic crash on Trump? Although the death rate is very low it seems that the contamination rate is rather high. That's it. More people easily contract the Corona Virus, even if most people's immune systems easily deal with it in relative terms. Oh and it tends to be a killer of the elderly -- people sixty and older.
     
  3. Liberalis

    Liberalis Well-Known Member

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    No it hasn't. Next.
     
  4. Lesh

    Lesh Banned

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    All we are "sure" about is that the mortality rate is at least 1%...which is a really high number.

    What's missing is the fact that numbers of dead are probably far greater. In China they increased that number by 50% once they retrieved all the bodies of those who died at home

    On the other side of the coin is the conjecture as to how many people have been exposed.

    We simply don't have either figure in any accurate way yet.

    We know it is highly contagious

    We know that we have no natural defense

    We know that it kills large numbers of people...more from older "at risk" populations but higher than expected even in younger folks
     
  5. modernpaladin

    modernpaladin Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The death rate thus far leaves me dissapointed with our reaction. Not worth shutting the country down. Prolly only worth shutting a handful of cities down...

    However, the reports of re-infection being worse than initial infection are now the primary concern imo. If true, its a game changer. We can't stay shut down forever, even just in a handful of cities. That eventually leads to economic collapse and far more death than any virus. What to do...
     
    Last edited: Apr 18, 2020
  6. Lesh

    Lesh Banned

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    No. We can't stay shut down forever...and we can't yoyo either.

    We need to be sure before we open up and TESTING is what we need.

    Make noise about THAT and you're doing something worthwhile
     
  7. modernpaladin

    modernpaladin Well-Known Member Past Donor

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  8. Bowerbird

    Bowerbird Well-Known Member

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    Research papers only please
     
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  9. ModCon

    ModCon Well-Known Member

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    % can't be known since there's so many who're asymptomatic. That's good news though, it means cv19 isn't as lerhal as we've all feared.
     
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  10. TCassa89

    TCassa89 Well-Known Member

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    Whatever the survival ratio is among those infected, the coronavirus is currently the leading cause of death in the US, while the virus was killing Americans at a rate of 4 people each day in early March, by the end of that month it had gone up to over 1,000, and today it is now killing people at a rate of around 2,000 each day, which is currently higher than any other hazard in the US. Some studies suggest the numbers have gone as high as 4,500 in a single day, but the thing to keep in mind is these numbers are coming in during a time where we have shut down most of the economy, if we did not shut down, there is reason to believe we would be losing lives at a rate of over 10,000 each day. That's only if our mortality per capita ratio went as high as Italy or Spain, in reality our numbers would likely be much worse if we didn't shut down the economy

    Frankly, I think it is disappointing that this many Americans are dying, even after shutting down the economy. I would have hoped we would have been more successful at containing this virus. That is what is disappointing, not the survival ratio of those infected
     
    Last edited: Apr 18, 2020
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  11. Lesh

    Lesh Banned

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    The test that South Korea used worked fine.

    Why aren't we doing everything we can to mass produce that??

    They have done well by using a combination of testing, contact tracing and quarantine.

    Why can't we emulate South Korea?
     
  12. modernpaladin

    modernpaladin Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    SK's test kits only recently passed FDA muster. Which is odd because I can find no source claiming they have been improved since they were previously rejected. I worry that the FDA may have just lowered their standards...

    Additionally, Im sure they have a patent on it preventing us from replicating our own. But we are getting some test kits from them now that the FDA has approved.

    FTR, I recall news reports from a month or so ago questioning their accuracy, but I can't find them now...

    https://www.wral.com/us-to-receive-750-000-coronavirus-tests-from-south-korea/19054746/?version=amp
     
    Last edited: Apr 18, 2020
  13. AmericanNationalist

    AmericanNationalist Well-Known Member

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    And even then, 750,000 tests is like a drop in the bucket for a nation such as the US. We need contract tracing more than anything, we need to eliminate those who don't have the virus and identify those who do. If we can identify carriers, we can better concentrate the quarantine.
     
  14. Daniel Light

    Daniel Light Well-Known Member

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    It's running at 5% in Brazil right now. Was The Who director talking average worldwide, or just the US?
     
  15. Lesh

    Lesh Banned

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    They WORK...and FDA guidelines can be waived in a crisis by Executive...

    Oh wait...Trump
     
  16. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    Their data was actually based on China.
     
  17. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    I see where this quote got re-run in a reason.com article, but the source is actually from testimony conducted on March 5th.

    https://thehill.com/policy/healthca...arn-coronavirus-mortality-rate-likely-to-drop

    Since that point, there has a been a whole host of data to support a lethality rate much higher than 0.1%. You can look at any country with more than 2000 deaths and you will find a mortality rate anywhere from 0.2% for Iran up to ~5.6% mortality for the UK. In the US, the latest numbers put the mortality at around 2.9%.
     
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  18. modernpaladin

    modernpaladin Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Did you edit out my link reporting that we've ordered 750K test kits just so you could blame Trump for us not getting any? Its likely he had something to do with the FDA guidelines getting waived...

    Also, whats the point of having FDA guidelines if we're just going to waive them when they get in the way?

    What if the test kits turn out to be innaccurate and we open the economy back up while theres a bunch of false negatives running around?
     
    Last edited: Apr 18, 2020
  19. 61falcon

    61falcon Well-Known Member

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    So far in the world we have 2,310,572 with the virus with 158,691 deaths.For a death rate of 6.8%
    So far in the USA we have 739,988 with the virus with 38,982deaths. For a death rate of 5.26%
     
  20. Bush Lawyer

    Bush Lawyer Well-Known Member

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    You stay shut down until either a vaccine, a magic wand therapy available to all, or the nasty runs out of hosts...and dies of asphyxiation.

    Here are your latest figures.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

    As at April 18, number of cases ~ 738,913, deaths ~ 39,015. Mortality rate ~ 5.28%

    Only a couple of days ago....number of cases ~ 605,390, deaths ~ 24, 582. Mortality rate ~ 4.06%
     
  21. modernpaladin

    modernpaladin Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Those are maximums, only accurate if we assume all or most of the actual cases have been confirmed. Which is incredibly unlikely. Unlike the numbers of infected, we can expect that all or near enough to all of the deaths are accounted for. So its a virtual guarantee that the mortality rate is substantially lower.
     
    Last edited: Apr 18, 2020
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  22. Bush Lawyer

    Bush Lawyer Well-Known Member

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    Okay........try this:

    Covid-19 analogy.PNG
     
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  23. modernpaladin

    modernpaladin Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    A smart thing to do if you've already landed and wish to go anywhere.
     
  24. Bush Lawyer

    Bush Lawyer Well-Known Member

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    How about this:

    covid invisible enemy.PNG
     
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  25. Idahojunebug77

    Idahojunebug77 Well-Known Member

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    Because folks here in the US will not adhere to a strict quarantine, they will find a way to cheat. And there are no fenced FEMA camps.
     
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