The percentage of deaths from Covid-19

This nonsense again? To date almost 200,000 Americans have died of heart disease this year. That is still the leading cause of death. That number doesn't peak, its constant...

 

No different. We have as much an obligation to try to protect people from the death associated with economic collapse as we do to try to protect them from the death associated with a virus.

It should also be noted that there is overlap between the two. If we can't afford proper nutrition and upkeep of sanitation because we wrecked ourselves trying to stop Cvirus, we'll have a host of other illnesses to contend with.

 

Heart disease was the number one killer for the majority of the year, but currently more Americans are dying of the coronavirus each day than anything else, this is due the the virus becoming more common than it was in the earlier months of the year. Now keep in mind, this has occurred during a time when we have been on lockdown, if we were not on lockdown the numbers would be much worse.

 

Year to date, its heart disease. End of the year will be heart disease. That's simply the truth, not panic porn...

 

Its also because of the overlap of patients with heart disease who die while infected with Cvirus. Either could've killed them, but they're counted as Cvirus regardless, because its impossible to know which.

 

While Trump declares that he has beaten the nasty when it is obvious he has not, your death rate will soar.

Stay the **** at home. Wait until:

1. You have a therapeutic bomb.
2. You have a vaccine.
3. You have asphyxiated the nasty.

Simple as that.

Yours sincerely,

The OId Man of a Master in Epidemiology.

 

That depends on how successful we are at containing the virus, if we can contain the virus then yes, the virus shouldn't be the number one killer by the end of the year, however if the virus were to continue to spread more than it already has, then the fatalities would be expected to multiply. As is the virus has multiplied at a rapid rate, at the begining of March the virus was killing 4 people a day, by the end of March it had gone up to over 1,000. Today it has exceeded 2,000 and some studies have suggested it has gone higher than 4,500 in a single day.

Again though, this is what has occurred while we are under lockdown, if we were not on lockdown our fatality per capita ratio would be expected to exceed that of Italy or Spain, which would mean somewhere over 10,000 deaths a day. Personally, I do not believe it will get that bad, because I do believe we will be able to contain this virus, but I must stress that we would not be able to accomplish this had we not gone on lockdown.

 

It can't get that bad. We have seen the worst, NYC. Proportionality and reduced population density ensures those numbers cannot be repeated, only diluted...

 

This is an economic issue as well.

Ask your epidemiologist what happens when the sewers back up into the street and folks are malnourished.

 

Why would that happen? Essential services stay open.

 

You do understand what an economy is? Essential services stay open so long as there are people being paid to provide them and resources available to keep them working. If the economy collapses, both become scarce and everyone suffers.

 

New York, like every other populated part of the country have had the majority of their economy on shutdown. Without that shutdown, it could very much get worse than it already has. More than this, it can also spread to other parts of the country that haven't been hit as hard. Also, as hospitals become more overwhelmed, the per capita survival rate would likely decline. Ultimately, the people we ought to be taking advice from are the doctors and scientists who are researching this virus.

 

Sure...so instead of propping up Airline Companies (for example,) the Govt pumps money into essential services.

I dunno what Trump has done over there, but down here:

1. All commercial rents suspended.
2. All domestic rents suspended.
3. All house mortgage payments suspended.
4. All business loans repayments suspended.
5. A truck load of money being paid out to support those affected.

If little old Australia can afford it, why can't Uncle Sam?

 

How long can you (and we) keep doing that? The govt pays workers from loans it gets from the banks, who get the money from mortgages and rents. Or it prints it, like we did for our stimulus. Eventually either the banks run out or there so much being printed that it isn't worth anything, and bread costs $10000 because the only thing being produced is money.

Airlines can go F themselves imo. I'm concerned about the folks who grow and transport food, maintain the sewers and keep the electricity on. But they won't do it for free (trust me, I work in the sewer, I aint going down there for free), and they can't do it without material support. And if the economy collapses, they will lose the material support they need, the govt will have nothing to offer them but pretty and worthless paper, crop fields will go unplanted and you'll be wishing you had a gun to protect yourself from the hungry folks trying to break down your door.

At some point before this happens, we have to turn the economy back on. Hopefully we have the virus under control by then. But if we don't... well, I think suffering the effects of the virus will be preferable to most folks to trying to survive Mad Max...

 

I hear your point. Best to tell Trump. You are right, Trump is wrong. Stay the **** at home, but pump money into essential services.

Down here, we can't move from Home unless it is essential. Yeas, 'liberty' and all that crap.....yeas, Aussies are 'sheep' ~ don't fall for that rubbish ~ but we are trouncing the USA in managing the nasty. Trump can get ****ed. People come first, not his re-election.

 

No. the FDA did not lower the standard. The tests were just fine to begin with and will go down in the history books as one of the more ingenious ways to put together a test for a never-before encountered virus, and in record time, to boot. Trump didn't want the test. He wanted something "American".

And no one, and I mean, literally, no one of any reputation, has been questioning their accuracy. Every single test ever created will create a few false positives / false negatives, that's part of the nature of all of this stuff. But the SK-tests were on the up-and-up and we could have had them 3 months ago.

 

People depend on the economy. Trump is trying to protect it. As are the folks demonstrating against the stay-at-home orders, because most of them can't make food or electricity or concrete or steel at home. We're not at the critical juncture yet where the economy is about to go Mad Max. But neither can anyone say for sure when we are there until its too late. I don't fault the folks who are trying to stay ahead of that curve.

 

I would like to see who determined the accuracy of those tests and how. I havn't been able find it. What you got?

 

If you are really, truly interested in a beneficial discussion as to how mortality rates can be gauged and what worth the statistics are, you and I can gladly discourse, because, as I suspect with you, I want only the real numbers. I want facts. I don't want propaganda. I don't want spin. But be careful of anyone on any side calling something "gospel". That's not how it works. And if you study the 2nd wave of the 1918-1919 pandemic, you will perhaps see what I mean.

So, @ me up if you really want to talk about it.

But people bitching and moaning about "it's too high, it's too low" is just malarky. Folks, it's far too early to know if any estimate is too high or too low. We are not in the middle of a pandemic. We are just at the beginning of this beast.

If at the end of the day we succeed in keeping the US deaths really, really low because people kept their asses indoors, then I will rejoice, but remember, it's probably because we kept our asses indoors. And I am EXTREMELY worried for all people all over the world that we get cocky about this thing, people let down their guard and when the 2nd wave, if it hits like the 2nd wave from the Fall of 1918 did, then we have a serious problem on our hands, one that makes this month look like child's play.

-Stat

That's just food for thought for all of you good folks.

 

Because you asked in a really good way, I will research this and by tomorrow, 20.04.2020, I will have information for you.

 

When did any other "average brand of influenza" double the weekly total number of deaths compared to the same period in previous years, in say, New York?

 

You know

There are days I feel like saying “go ahead re-open the economy for Trump voters hold a Trump rally that way there will be no-one left to vote for him come November” but not even the worst ningnong of a rabid half witted racist deserves that fate

 

Fine. That doesn't have anything to do with the testing we are NOT doing

 

I trust Dr. Burks and early on she point blank said it had an inaccuracy factor of 30%. They were being pushed hard for tests so I don't think the co-ead DR would lie. A reporter even pushed her on it and says can you imagine Americans being told they didn't have it that did, or vice versus and they needed to use more accurate tests. We've now tested 3.6 million and increasing almost 200,000 a day.

 

She was talking about the tests that the CDC finally got out...not those that the South Koreans were using.

When we have enough tests to do random samples and not just on those of people showing symptoms...and can interpret those tests on a national scale...then we should talk about opening up