Trump/Clinton Presidential Debate: Day after Analysis.....

Well the First Debate between Trump and Clinton has concluded. After getting the take from both Left and Right Media sources, and both sides of the divide all saying their candidate won. I started getting the thoughts from 3rd party supporters and Independents.

What I found was that neither Candidate won. That the match was a draw. Drudge and Right wing sources came out with Trump won, and the Leftness and their sources say Hillary won. Although, both said Hillary did appear more prepared. Yet they did say this was Hillary at her best and that she has no room to grow. That Trump didn't hurt himself and that this being his First time going up against the Demos. That he does have room to grow.

So what is your take the day after?

 

I won't disagree with calling it a draw but it shouldn't have been. With Hillary and her decades of experience should have put the smack down on trump but she didn't. She is a policy wonk and should have put him to bed last night. It didn't happen.

 

Trump wont be dinged in the polls. The MS Media can blame themselves. The bar was set already and it was so low. That Trump did what he needed to do.

Holt interrupted Trump over 30 times and only 19 times for Hillary. The distraction over the birther issue, didn't help Hillary and her Team at all.

Trump was seen as not losing it or going over the Top. Clinton was seen as not giving up answers that someone in politics for over 25 years should have had.

What people found strange for a debate was Hillary telling people go to her website for answers. Wherein she won't have to answer them. Why couldn't she answer now in the debate.

 

I agree, instead she was the soundbite candidate last night which seems to be awfully typical of career politicians. It is as if they only speak what they think polled well in their polling groups. Trump missed an opportunity to ding Hillary last night when she talked about security, specifically cyber security. When she talked about making the government network secure he should've asked her if she was going to do that by putting in more private servers in her home.

 

Obviously the people who've made up their minds are biased, and you're looking in the wrong place for "third-party" analysis. You need to watch where people are putting their money in anticipation of the election. That's where indications are that Hillary won last night and will probably win in November.

 

Then, as she asked, why isn't she 50 points ahead?

 

I would say that Trump won with the "poorly educated voters" he so loves, who are either so ignorant or mislead that they couldn't appreciate just how incoherent his babbling on policy issues was. And of course he won with the birthers, racist, xenophobes, etc. who make up his base.

But even if you just watched on style, and didn't pay attention to what they were actually saying, IMO Trump put on a poor showing.

The more knowledgeable the person, the more they appreciated how much more knowledgeable and coherent Clinton was compared to Donald.

 

My take is that Trump lost the debate but won the SNIFF SNIFF contest. Sniffy had the same old same old vague "we make America great again" with no real plans, SNIFF SNIFF

He was caught in his lies, couldn't answer the question "What LOOKS Presidential", had to turn it to "stamina" ...so obvious he was flailing SNIFF SNIFF

 

Despite the fact that you know as well as everyone else knows she was lying just about everything. Empty talk. She's been rehearsing those same lines over the last 20-25 years. Would you please point us to her record of achievement? Anything which benefited ordinary Americans will do.

 

The investing class hates change. WSJ has disliked Trump from the get go. He dynamited their Bush coronation scheme and a lot of them will never forgive him for that.

 

Kind of ironic that Trump lacked the "stamina" to make it through a 90 minute debate without losing it.

 

The investing class love Hillary. She will keep the status quo and their gravy train running. That is why they are backing her with millions.

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You mean he should not respond to Hillary's lies?

 

Fact checking of the debate bears out the fact that Trump lies way more often than Hillary.

But interesting that you would deflect from the topic of Trump's lack of stamina during his debate performance. His shoulder was drooping and he seemed to be having difficulty maintaining a dignified pose.

 

Yes, Wall Street hates Trump. The Fast Money slicksters all went all in for Clinton yesterday.

 

Errors are not all lies. Clinton denied that she had referred to the Pacific trade deal as "the gold standard" - innocent error - or blatant lie?

 

The best part of Hilary's performance is she didn't appear sickly. She actually looked healthy and rested. Other than that there wasn't much to get excited about and I don't expect to see much changing the trend in the polls.

 

And economic Models pick Trump wins the Presidency.....except for Moodys. Despite Trump being in their margin of error. 2 of them that haven't been wrong for decades are picking Trump and the GOP.

Betting markets? Asian Markets?


One of the best election models predicts a Trump victory......


One of the most respected and accurate forecasting models in political sciences says that Donald Trump will win the 2016 presidential election, and by a fairly comfortable margin at that.

Emory political scientist Alan Abramowitz's "Time for Change" makes predictions by considering how the economy is doing (measured by the GDP growth rate the second quarter of the election year), how popular the incumbent is (measured by his Gallup approval rating at the end of June), and whether the incumbent is running for reelection. It has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1992.....snip~

http://www.vox.com/2016/6/14/11854512/trump-election-models-political-science


For someone who despises politicians as much as I do it’s really hard to avoid political news lately. But there is a nexus between the presidential election and economics: most voters think the president controls the economy. The evidence for that is the fact that economic models predicting the winners of presidential elections are the best forecasters, far superior to the myriad of polls, except the exit polls, and vastly superior to the legions of political pundits in the media. On the superiority of simple regression models over that of experts for forecasting anything, even the price of wine, read Super Crunchers.

One economic model predicting presidential elections using just GDP growth shows that the economy must grow at an annual rate of 2.5% in the second quarter of the election year in order for the incumbent party to win. Based on the latest release showing Q2 growth at an annual rate of 1.2%, Trump has virtually won.....snip~

http://affluentinvestor.com/2016/08/economic-model-says-trump-will-win-election/


Justin Wolfers, an economics professor at the University of Michigan and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution who has researched the reliability of economic models, said that while every election is different the “point of the statistical models is to try to find the underlying similarity across all of them.”

“So the logic that says that these models should have worked over the past few decades also says that they should work in this election cycle, too,” he told The Hill.

“There's no reason to think the models should do better or worse in 2016,” he said.....snip~

http://thehill.com/policy/finance/275084-models-predict-gop-white-house-even-with-trump

Evidently.....you forgot about the Economic Models. That have been saying Trump will win since March of this year and still to this day say its a Trump win.

 

Trump misquoted Hillary. She said that it will "SET the gold standard".

Context is everything.

 

Does anyone really want a President as easy to bait and manipulate as Trump? Given how easily Hillary was able to bait him and lead him around by his nose, how do you he'd do in negotiations with Congress or other world leaders?

 

When the fact checkers are themselves wrong???

 

IOW, Trump error - Clinton lie.

 

Hillary won, and it wasn't even that close. She looked more Presidential and sounded more Presidential. To those of us who follow politics, it could look like a draw, because we already know the flaws in both of them. But, to the vast majority of people who tune into politics three or four times a year and don't carry the baggage of a two year day to day political process, Hillary came off much more put together.

 

Good thing with Hillary calling cops and half of Americans racists......with such flowery prose. That those of the Elitist blend thinking they are more educated.....which they are, doesn't help them with Common sense voters. That which the leftness lacks in completely.

Oh, and telling knowledgeable people and the highly educated to go to her website. Just doesn't cut it for her, explaining out her policies. Even those with smart powers agreed.

 

this is an example of grasping a straws. The difference between the two is for all practical purposes is nil.

 

Again I agree. I don't think it moved the needle much if at all.