Retaliation would immediate and overwhelming within seconds, if not split seconds of the warhead being launched. Nobody is going to sit by and wait and see where it detonates. Even the mad midget ruling N. Korea isn't crazy enough not to notify others when they're conducting tests.
I think what I find most amazing is the ignorant General Buck Turgidson remark. Trying to say that the US would not go off "until realizing it was a warning shot". First of all, you do not do "warning shots" when launching a nuclear strike. Ever. Period. That would be like Germany launching a poison gas attack on the English Channel during WWII (or the British doing the same thing). That was the WMD of the era, and the other side would have reacted as such, responding with their own stockpiled munitions. Because for one, most of our detection equipment is not that accurate. We can tell within 100 miles or so where it will likely detonate within minutes of launch. And this could drastically change because we know that China is researching maneuverable missiles and re-entry vehicles. So even the "best guess" could be hundreds of miles off of the real target location. So any launch even remotely in the direction of a carrier fleet will be responded to as if it was a real attack on the fleet. Because we are not going to wait and respond until the warhead detonates before we react to it. Also we could not be sure if it was actually going to try and hit the fleet and missed, or was aimed off on purpose (regardless of what China or anybody else says - it could be a ruse to get us to do nothing as they destroyed our fleet). And I would expect China to behave the exact same way if we did that to them. If some General Turgidson in the US suggested launching a nuke to impact 100 miles East of China to scare them into backing off, I would hope we was put in a straight-jacket within minutes, hauled to a hospital and retired immediately. ANd trust me, I find it strange that somebody is throwing a Strangelove reference at me, and I am the one thinking the other is absolutely insane.
No one has ever demonstrated the ability to destroy any object in medium Earth orbit (about 12000 mile alt) where both GLONASS and GPS are deployed. I think doing so would require the use of a full orbital booster with all the attendant launch facilities, not just some kind of SAM on steroids. These facilities are not usually designed for a rapid launch cycle, therefore destroying a meaningful amount of either constellation would likely take days, and would require days of preparation before that, which would almost certainly be seen by reconnaissance satellites. The Chinese, on the other hand, put the Beidou satellites in geosynchronous orbit (22000 miles high) where they are safe from any kinetic attack.
What you are posting is INSANE!!! Do you have ANY IDEA what the U.S. Military Response would be if China were to either launch a Nuclear Warhead Tipped Missile or Drop a Nuclear Bomb ANYWHERE.....never mind such a Thermonuclear Device detonating above the surface of the Pacific Ocean anywhere NEAR a U.S. Navy Carrier Battle Group? First of all any detonation by ANY COUNTRY of a Nuke never mind a Thermo-Nuke....in atmosphere would result in so much International condemnation and sanctions that it just would NOT be worth doing. Secondly....if CHINA did this even 300 MILES away from a Carrier Group and let's say it was a relatively small Nuke as say China launched a Tactical Nuclear Tipped Cruise Missile with a 20 Kiloton Yield as even for a Tactical Nuke this is a very small yield as such U.S. tactical Cruise Missiles such as the BGM-109G....this GLCM...Ground Launched Cruise Missile had a W84 warhead variable Thermonuclear Warhead Yield of anywhere from 10 Kilotons to 50 Kilotons and the ACLM....Air Launched Cruise Missile version of it used a W80 warhead which was also used on Tomahawk Tactical Nuclear Cruise Missiles had a yield of 200 Kilotons. Just to place this into perspective...Hiroshima was devastated by a 13 kiloton nuclear FISSION explosion....and during the Cold War U.S. Pershing II Tactical Battlefield Nuclear Missiles had variable warheads with a yield up to 400 Kilotons never mind the once existing in GREAT NUMBERS U.S. strategic Nuclear Missiles such as the Titan II and Minuteman...which still exists as a newer Minuteman III....which had MULTI-MEGATON YIELDS. Anyways the United States and Russia have ELIMINATED AND DESTROYED all Tactical and Battlefield Nuclear Weapons but China still has a few....and for China a Tactical Nuclear Cruise Missile is for THEM A NEW TOY!!! So let's say a 20 Kiloton Thermonuclear Cruise Missile is launched and it detonates above sea level and does so about 300 Miles away from a U.S. Navy Carrier Battle Group. Now just because this thing is a relatively small....almost 2 times the size of Hiroshima's bomb blast...20 Kilotons...it is STILL THERMONUCLEAR....and thus put's out a great deal more Radiation than a Fission Bomb and because this bomb is going to air burst over the ocean a great amount of RADIOACTIVE WATER VAPOR will be sent into the air and can KILL anyone it comes into contact with be it 20 miles away or 300 miles away. Plus this radioactive fall out is most likely going to irradiate SOMEONE in the Pacific....so even though the U.S. Carrier is not targeted....as if it was we can EASILY shoot down any incoming missile coming at a carrier at Hypersonic speed be it a cruise or ballistic missile make no difference...BUT...even though the U.S. Carrier was not directly targeted......HOW WOULD WE KNOW IT WASN'T!!!??? Something like this would IMMEDIATELY RESULT....in a response that at the VERY LEAST....the Ship or Ground Base or Submarine....or whatever the tracked location that this Nuclear Cruise Missile was launched from would be IMMEDIATELY DESTROYED BY THE U.S. NAVY!!! As well if such a Cruise Missile came from a Land Site....the U.S. Military already knowing EXACTLY where all Mobile and Fixed Chinese Nuclear Cruise Missile Launchers are would DESTROY ALL OF THEM. If this came from a Chinese Ship be it a Surface Ship or Submarine I CAN TELL YOU RIGHT NOW....both the U.S. Navy and the U.S. Air Force which is already pre-positioned all over this area of the Pacific and Pacific Rim WOULD DESTROY ALL SURFACE AND SUB-SURFACE CHINESE NAVAL SHIPS. What you suggest China doing would result in the IMMEDIATE destruction of the vast majority of Chinese Tactical and Battlefield Nuclear Capability but we would NOT attack Chinese Strategic Nuclear Forces...UNLESS...China made the mistake of responding. AboveAlpha
What a horrible misunderstanding. Confusing. If you mean positioning systems in general, use the other term. If you mean your GPS system..uhh.....doubt that. They are incredibly stupid if they do so. They are developing their own positioning system. Originally i meant using their new sattelites to locate enemy strike force and guide missiles (even if they need to be nuclear-armed to hit the target). Again - sometimes you need a direct hit to destroy a fortified target. INS might be just not enough for that. Again - the primary reason for originally using GPS and likes of it is superior accurcy it provides over INS. In general, lesser accuracy for long-range weapons means more of them must be trown at the targets to successfully destroy them. I didn't say you wouldn't be able to hit it at all if you lose GPS it is simply that you are going to need waaay more abstract weapons to deal with the target and , consequently, waaay more time, resources plus endangering precision weapons' carriers more often. To sum up, destroying positioning system is a your to go way to decrease enemy's offensive potential. These can be jammed or countered. The beauty of INS is that it is totally independent of any external information and is fully autonomous. If they have means to do it - they will. Yep. That is how that works. Tomahawk is not the only weapon you have and need to use, isn't it? I am not sure who told you it had gone to strategic weapons. You have wrong impression. I do not think that way. But losing GPS is going to complicate guidance, isn't it? Well, I know at least one country, which military doctrine allows preemptive nuclear strike and wide use of tactical nukes. You seeing nukes as a political weapon doesn't mean others do not.
Let my start by saying that I do not think that there will ever be a way between China and Japan or Taiwan. It is simply not in Chinas interest to start one. From what I understand this thread is about a *hypothetical* situation in which there is going to be a war and the stupidity of the idea is discarded for a moment and that includes the economic fallout. My experience on message boards tell me that the traditional scenario is an evil and crazy enemy who tries to do something aggressive using classic conventional warfare, so posters can make posts about how the evil enemy can be defeated using a combination of superiority in technology and equipment. At the same time it is often assumed that the aggressive enemy is also incredibly stupid and completely unaware of our military strength and therefore attacks anyway. In my scenario which is still based on the hypothetical idea that China will attack the Chinese takes another approach. They know that an American carrier group will thwart their evil plans (see, the enemy is still evil). But they know that realistically they cant defeat it and the best option is therefore to somehow stop it before it gets too close (But now the enemy is no longer stupid). That is where the warning comes in. This will of course not be in the shape of a missile because everybody would go nuts if they suddenly saw a nuclear missile pop up. Let us say the place it in tow under a small abandoned ship. The Chinese also knows that a small underwater detonation may cost the lives of a couple of fishermen. But they figure that nobody will start a nuclear Armageddon because of that. Nobody is going to start large scale nuclear attacks over one underwater detonation. Especially because the Chinese have the ability to strike back. They know that everybody will get very nervous but nobody will be the first to start a nuclear war. The signal they want to send is that America cant expect this to be a war in which people will only be killed in faraway places. American lives will also be at stake. Lots of them. Some 40-50 million living in California, Oregon, Washington, Alaska and Hawaii. The Chinese wants to make it clear that if America goes to war it will not be the traditional war where Americans are safe at home while watching weird people getting killed on television. The president now has to make a choice. Does he want to engage in a war with a nuclear power which has the means to kill millions of his voters. This is not going to be a kneejerk reaction. What can he gain from attacking the Chinese and what can he loose? The Chinese knows that they have no hope of winning in a conventional war. After all, what is the point of starting one if you know that you are going to lose. That would be really, really stupid. But the whole idea of this thread is a scenario in which China goes to war. We must assume that China will make a plan in which they can achieve the goals they have set. This is one possible scenario. It is not a likely scenario but neither is the premise of this whole thread. It is not my intention to discuss velocity rates of missiles or how many light bulbs there are on the Nimitz. My question is what would a president do if he suddenly faced a situation in which going to war could have disastrous consequences on America. Would he proceed anyway or would he back off. My guess is that it depends entirely on who the president is. Reagan would go to war but Carter probably wouldn't.
There are a few things to consider. First, governments can be stupid and can and will sometimes over-rule military professionals for both political and ego-centric reasons. On the face of it Japan should never have launched the Pearl Harbor attacks and not even had they done two militarily intelligent things, destroy those fuel tanks and wait until one or more of the U.S. carriers were at the piers. Why? Because regarding resources and the ability to gear up practically overnight for war production the United States held most of the useful military cards. Yet Japan still did the stupid thing. No problem there, however, since to a great extent the only reason that the United States eventually won is that the nation could overcome its own stupid errors by endlessly pouring resources into the war effort. So, yes, the Communist Chinese government is quite capable of letting a game of international chicken get out of hand or conversely sitting on its hands a bit too long while its military insists upon playing games of machismo. All that said, yes, it would come down to the reaction of the United States and Great Britain and a handful of the usual suspect nations. So not only what would the U.S. president do and why, but what would the prime ministers of those other nations do as well and why? Oh . . . and where the U.S. and Great Britain are concerned let's never forget the innate ability -- nay the gifted genius -- of their legislative branches to very nearly always do the stupid thing. My sense of it is that there would be no immediate war response and that cooler heads (or scared spitless heads) would for once listen to their military experts who would calmly tell them all about the risks and probable outcomes that they could look forward to experiencing. While delaying a military response however, there would be a huge economic series of repercussions initiated . . . which might or might not make a telling difference but would immediately throw the economy of the entire world into a massive and long term economic depression. Great good fun is therefore had by all, yes?
OK....let's say in this scenario China is building up it's forces and filling Chinese Troop Transport ships to invade Taiwan. Now you propose that upon American detection of such a possible Chinese buildup prior to invasion....as there is no way the U.S. would not know well in advance that such an invasion was coming as China could not simply move, ships, soldiers and military equipment to ports without the U.S. knowing about it....so you are saying in such a scenario...as a U.S. Carrier Battle group starts moving closer to Taiwan and China that China somehow detonates an unknown to be positioned Nuclear Weapon on a Chinese Fishing Boat close enough to the Carrier Battle Group to have an emotional effect but not close enough to destroy the Carrier Battle Group and the Chinese do this as a warming. OK....well here is the problem with that scenario as it would never happen as you are creating a scenario based upon what you think the U.S. Military would first do and where you think a U.S. Navy Carrier Battle Group would be and go. Looking at the only realistic part of your scenario would be the detection of Chinese Troop and Ships and Troop Carriers at ports waiting orders to sail toward Taiwan. The U.S. Satellite Detection and monitoring system which allows us to detect any possible aspect of such a impending Chinese buildup as well since the NSA monitors all electronic communications world wide it is much more likely we would call up the Chinese and say..."We know what you are doing so knock it off!" As far as if in fact the Chinese did launch such an invasion a combination of USAF Stealth Bombers and Submarine Launched Anti-Ship Missiles as well as the use of USN. Attack Submarines which are ALWAYS in that area waiting undetected to respond to exactly this scenario....all three of these U.S. Military elements alone are more than capable of completely destroying any attempted Chinese Invasion of Taiwan well before we would move any USN. Carrier Battle Groups in for Close Support of Taiwan. But let's say for arguments sake that a Nuke on a Chinese Fishing Boat was detonated relatively close to one of our Carrier Groups. Since the United States posses far more Nuclear Weapons than China as well as U.S. Anti-Missile Systems aboard ships, aircraft and land based as well as several now known to be operational Free Electron Laser and Particle Beam Weapons as well as the now operational MEB....Microwave Emissions Beam....the United States posses a fairly accurate and sophisticated form of Missile Defense...something the Chinese do not posses. Looking at this realistically the Chinese would have to be out of their minds to detonate a Nuke and if they did...we would have to respond as to not respond would have a worse result than responding. And China would lose very badly if that happened. AboveAlpha
The Army Air Force / Air Force equivalent to the Marines' Chesty Puller would be Gen. Curtis LeMay. Although the public image of the modern Air Force is that of a math nerd in a blue suit...more at home with a slide ruler (or the modern electronic equivalent) than an automatic rifle; historically there have been some serious ass kickers in the ranks. Gen. Curtis Lemay for example. In the late 40's he was pushing for a nuclear arsenal capable of literally killing a nation.... bombing it, not to achieve victory with the defeated still intact, but bombing it to the extent it would be eradicated from the face of the Earth. The doctrine of nation killing, essentially leaving a smoldering, radioactive hole in the ground. Fortunately this never took hold as a feasible strategy, what with nuclear fallout and retaliation, but it was proposed at one time. In the Vietnam conflict it what was not unheard of for B-52 aircraft commanders to petition for the use of tactical nuclear strikes. Many wanted to "nuke" parts of North Vietnam, as the prior strategy of conventional carpet bombing was not convincing the NVA/VC to lose their will to fight. Today, of course, we react with any notion of nuclear strikes as a bad idea...worthy of a "face palm" or something along those lines... Not that long ago, the timespan between Hiroshima/Nagasaki and today... the idea of using nuclear weapons in a limited war, was taken seriously and was deemed feasible. In conclusion, I don't think it is that far fetched the "bad guys" may be thinking along similar terms. Perhaps the North Koreans, Iran, or China, are capable of using nuclear weapons in a limited war capacity.
OK, only going to hit a few things here. I am aware they are developing their own system, it is not even fully deployed around Asia yet, let alone worldwide. Yet they claim their GPS guided munitions can hit targets in the US. Now if their system is not fully in place yet, and they still use GPS, then who's system do you think they are using? Hmmmmmm? Nuclear armed starts nuclear wars. You do not need precision to drop a 300kt nuclear warhead, anywhere within 5 kilometers is a kill, regardless of how fortified it may be. No, not really. The TOMAHAWK was able to fly itself through a specific window, on a specific building, in a specific town, purely by inertial guidance and visual imaging. MAVERICK and a great many other weapons can do the exact same thing. Actually, the concept of GPS had been around for decades, but as a navigation aid, not a system for weapons. The older systems like RDF, ADF, NDB, VOR, Lorenz, ILS, and a slew of other aircraft and naval navigation systems. However, these were not all that good, which eventually led to disaster. You may have heard of the incident that finally kickstarted GPS from a scientist's laboratory dream into reality. It was when Korean Air Lines Flight 007 wandered off-course in 1983, and the Soviet Air Force shot it down killing all 269 on board. Once the US President found out that this technology was possible, he ordered full funding for the program and the first satellite was launched 6 years later. The system was intended to be used for navigation, and this is what the military used it for. Our trucks and ships and aircraft all have GPS now, so we know exactly where we are (even if the Lieutenant has a map and compass). Our PATRIOT system uses GPS, but not in any way you would think. The trailers and truck have it, so we know exactly where we and they are. But the missiles are completely dumb when it comes to GPS (as are the vast majority of US weapons). And if you knew about "GPS Lag", you would not want them as your primary targeting system anyways. Which is why that is still the primary guidance system. Think of it as a TOMAHAWK traveling along it's course. And they are literally programmed to "fly down this road until you get to that road, turn west, then look for a 3 story building between 2 8 story buildings, hit in the middle of the 2nd story". All the GPS part does is periodically confirm it is flying down the right road, and that it makes the turn at the right location. Basically it is just reading the roadsigns. But terminal flight is entirely by it's own internal systems. Loosing GPS just forces the crews to go back to doing things the "old way". Maps, inertial navigation, radio navigation. It makes things a bit more complicated, it does not make them impossible. After all, our military (and that of the rest of the world) did perfectly alright for over 120 years without GPS. And I would love to know the country that allows preemptive use of nuclear weapons. Because as far as I am aware, all 5 of the major powers that possess them all state they are for defensive and retaliatory use only. And those are the only ones that really matter, because they are the only ones with an international reach. Smaller nations such as India, Pakistan, Israel, North Korea, and Iran do not bother me in that way because while they could do a lot of damage, none of them by themselves can start "WWIII".
OK, one thing if you have not noticed about most of us in these threads. Yea, you got a lot of the ultra-nationalistic "My country good - their country bad" types. But I think you will find that most of us (based on participant - not post counts) actually try to deal with the things raised in here seriously, and do not demonize our potential opponents. You will not see most of us going in for bad Action Movie plots, where some mysterious group or Mad Generals plan on detonating nukes somewhere, to try and frighten another country into bending to their will. We talk real weapons, real equipment, and real geopolitical and actions and reactions. Not launching super-secret squirrel phantom boats with nukes on board. This would be reacted to as if it was an attack upon our fleet. Period. Leave the bad movie plots where they belong, in Sylvester Norris and Arnold Willis movies.
This was a common belief through the middle of the 1980's. One of the seminal books of a "realistic WWIII" scenario was by Sir John Hackett. He spun a scenario which had a conventional war between NATO and Warsaw Pact brush the very edge of a nuclear exchange, then barely back off in time (after the nuclear destruction of several cities). And Tom Clancy used a lot of that in the plot of his classic "Red Storm Rising". But even they realized that in reality, any such exchange would likely go global and out of control the moment the first missile left the tubes (Clancy avoided this outcome by having the launching nation suffering an internal coup when some realized what was about to take place to the launch was aborted moments before it would have happened). Those of us born before or during the mid 1960's grew up in an era of constant fear about these things. The younger generations really do not seem to grasp the fear we all had of Nuclear Armageddon. But if you listen to our popular music of the era, it was full of such references (as were our movies). But all of the Cold War players are all to well aware of what this would (not could, but would) lead to, and have worked hard to lessen tensions and paranoia about intents and responses. But some seem to still be living in the era of "Bombs Away" LeMay, and think that dropping a nuke is like waving a magic wand and shouting Avada Kedavra.
I am not just pulling this out of the hat. Last year the Center for Strategic and International Studies did a study on the US-China relations. It can be found here: http://csis.org/files/publication/130307_Colby_USChinaNuclear_Web.pdf Here are a few quotes from it: For the foreseeable future Taiwan is the contingency in which nuclear weapons would most likely become a major factor, because the fate of the island is intertwined both with the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party and the reliability of US defense commitments in the Asia-Pacific region. and Although Beijing and Washington have agreed to a range of crisis management mechanisms, such as the Military Maritime Consultative Agreement and the establishment of a direct hotline between the Pentagon and the Ministry of Defense, the bases for miscommunication and misunderstanding remain and draw on deep historical reservoirs of suspicion. For example, it is unclear whether either side understands what kinds of actions would elicit a military, or even a nuclear, response y theother party. Furthermore, neither side seems to believe the other's declared policies and intentions, suggesting that escalation management, already a very uncertain endeavor, could be especially difficult in any conflict. So in the unlikely event that a conflict erupts over Taiwan there is a possibility that nuclear weapons will be used. China may consider this and decide to use them first in what they may consider to be preemptive self defense. Okay?
Well, re wargaming assorted situations isn't really anything to take seriously; the U.S. military and war colleges have actually created and gamed contingency plans for such scenarios as invading Connecticut after a hypothetical Soviet takeover of New England, for instance. It's what strategic and tactical studies groups do for a living and training purposes, and not an indication they think its something about to actually take place. Don't read too much into these scenarios or get alarmed about them..
History is chock-full of examples of seemingly reasonable nations doing bat-shirt crazy things. What was crazier than World War I? The Chinese are apparently rational and economically they have the world by the short-and-curlies...but they are entirely capable of doing something dumb - particularly going to war with Japan. They are economic rivals. They have a history of intense hatred of each other. both seem to want to revisit World War Two for some reason. Anything is possible.
Very true. Just look at 5 June 1989 to see proof of that. And I from what I have mostly seen, China's efforts against Taiwan (even potential nuclear threats) will be on the level of Finlandization, not actual military confrontation.
People lie. As do countries. Pff....no. Does destroying carrier group with a nuke makes that much diffecrence to destroying it with conventional weapons? No, it doesn't. Anyway, a war between major military powers will inevitably go nuclear and that never was a secret. So - if you are at it - why giving away first shot to the enemy? Yes, you don't need prsicion, but you still need guidance. Spare me from "RCS of a marble","144:0 kill ratio","invisible", "invulnerable" and "fly through window" BS. Wrong data, my fella. It was initiated in 1974 as a purely military project and only after that violation of Soviet airspace the system was allowed to use for civilians. Captain Obvious to the resque again!*sigh* Tell that to JDAM or GBU. Okay, okay, we are done with Tomahawk. EXACTLY MY POINT! Mine do. In other words if we would be under attack of equal or just dangerous enough enemy the green light for nuclear strike will be given.
And then where are the satellites? They may lie in saying the system is up or not, but the birds are not all there yet. And no, it was not "initiated in 1974". In 1974 it was still just a concept among some guys with big foreheads at Hughes. The first launch of NAVSTAR was not until 1979, and the minimum configuration of 10 satellites was not achieved until 1985, which is when it went online as a functioning navigation system. And it was made available to the "general public" (instead of military use only) because of the shoot-down, as I stated. But the system was never designed for use by weapons (that capability would not even be developed for another decade), it was for navigation. Oh, and that actually is not the Russian policy: http://www.kremlin.ru/ref_notes/461
So, in other words, the first launch was BEFORE 1983, the deployment was initiated BEFORE 1983 and it was purely military project at the moment. Basically what I tell you. Except it is: Basically this Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in response to the use of nuclear and other types of weapons of mass destruction against it or its allies, and also in case of aggression against Russia with the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is threatened. Here you go some more: 22. As part of the strategic deterrence measures Russian Federation considers the use of precision weapons. Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in response to use against it and (or ) its allies of nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction , as well as in case of aggression against the Russian Federation with the use of conventional weapons , a threat to the very existence of the state. The decision to use nuclear weapons made ​​by the President of the Russian Federation . Is there something you don't understand in "reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in case of aggression against the Russian Federation with the use of conventional weapons"? So....kinda nuclear strikes against (*)(*)(*)(*)(*)y ones.
Yea, you forgot the most important part, the ... ... when the very existence of the state is threatened. In short, the same policy of every other country that has them.
I don't think some people here understand just what the use of a Thermonuclear Weapon even NEAR a U.S. Carrier Battle Group would mean as far as exactly what the U.S. Military response would be and how the United States in general would respond to China on a wide ranging number and types and levels of issues. So...let's say this happened and the Chinese Detonated a Nuke and it was close but not close enough to destroy the U.S. Carrier Battle Group. The MOMENT this Nuclear Detonation occurred NORAD, U.S. SPACE COMMAND, U.S. MISSILE COMMAND, THE PRESIDENT, VICE PRESIDENT, CABINET, SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE....and others would be whisked away to underground bunkers and the Nuclear Football would become activated at a specific state of readiness and the U.S. Military would go to DEF-COM 2 and HOLDING. All U.S. Nuclear Forces WORLD WIDE would be placed on their highest state of readiness. All U.S. Carrier's would have F-18 Super Hornets on DECK armed with NUCLEAR WEAPONS....all B-2 Stealth Bombers, B-1B Bombers that are not already loaded with Nuclear Weapons as some always are...will be loaded and some will take off in a FAIL SAFE MODE. USAF....F/A-22's will be loaded with Nuclear Bombs as the F/A-22 has internal bomb bays and as an F/A-22 is close to IMPOSSIBLE to be detected by either radar or IR-Sensors as a Raptor's engines have high tech. exhaust cooling systems making it near impossible to detect them....if needed....F/A-22's could fly into China or fly anywhere else in the World and destroy an enemy's weapon systems without any enemy knowing such Nuclear weapon carrying aircraft were either coming to destroy their Nuclear Weapon Systems, Command and Control or Army or Navy Ship or Troop Carriers or Concentrations. My point is CHINA is aware of EXACTLY what would happen if something like detonating a Nuke close to a U.S. Carrier or any U.S. Military of Civilian Interests would mean and none of these U.S. responses would be good for China. At the VERY LEAST....such a U.S. response to such a Nuclear Detonation would mean the United States ceasing or refusing ALL incoming Chinese Exports to the United States and ALL U.S. Allies. As well the United States would IMMEDIATELY cease all LOAN PAYMENTS to China. The Chinese Economy has been built around being able to supply the United States cheap inexpensive goods and NONE of these Chinese Exported Goods to the United States hold any necessity to the U.S. and such goods hold ZERO strategic importance to the United States. However...for CHINA....without the income garnished from the United States from the sale of these goods made in China the CHINESE ECONOMY COULD NOT SURVIVE. Add to this the United States would MAKE CERTAIN that no other U.S. ally would continue to trade with China. On top of all that China not being even able to survive a U.S. Import Embargo....China would basically be brought to it's KNEES with the addition of no longer receiving U.S. Loan Payments. IN REALITY....China KNOWS....that the best course of action for China and it's people is to have VERY GOOD MILITARY, ECONOMIC AND CULTURAL RELATIONS WITH THE UNITED STATES. This current round of Military provocation by China over these disputed Japanese Islands is just that...FOOLISHNESS!!! The ONLY reason this is even happening is because there still exists a small in number but still strong in power and influence....VERY OLD MAOIST MEMBERS ON THE VERGE OF DYING OUT CHINESE COMMUNIST LEADERS. These Old Guard are very much HATED by the current Young Chinese Business Minded Communist Party Members and I believe I have already detailed just how hated such Maoist Idealist Old Communists are by the Military Leadership of the PLA...Peoples Liberation Army and PLN...People Liberation Navy. One thing is for certain....if China was to detonate a Thermonuclear Weapon in ATMOSPHERE or UNDERWATER.....the United States Military and Government WOULD FREAK!!! And to do such a thing would result in the complete and utter ECONOMIC DEVASTATION OF CHINA. IF...China were to actually attempt an Invasion of Taiwan....which we would know about even before the GRUNT'S who are a part of the PLA knew about it.....China's Navy would be completely destroyed both surface ships and all subs. If during such an operation China were to threaten or actually USE a Nuclear Weapon against a U.S. Carrier Group....and it is HIGHLY UNLIKELY that China could actually penetrate a U.S. Carrier Groups Defenses.....UNLESS.....a Chinese Submarine carrying a long range Nuclear Tipped Torpedo were to be able to get in within range of a Carrier Group....another HIGHLY UNLIKELY SCENARIO if such an attempt occurred AFTER an attempted Chinese Invasion of Taiwan....as if this attempt was done PRIOR to such an invasion it would have a MUCH GREATER CHANCE OF SUCCEEDING....but after an attempted Chinese Invasion of Taiwan there is only about a 1 in 5000 chance a Chinese Submarine could get in close enough to launch a Nuclear Tipped Torpedo to be able to destroy a USN. Carrier Battle Group. And let's say just for Ha Ha's....China attempted to invade Taiwan....U.S.A.F. Stealth Bomber's along with USN. Attack Sub's would then obliterate any incoming Chinese Sub's, Ship's, Troop Carrier's and Taiwan could EASILY weather out any Mainland China Non-Nuclear Missile Attacks and Taiwan's Air Force could handle Chinese Attack Aircraft. So at this point....China will have lost THOUSANDS UPON THOUSANDS OF MEN AND MATERIAL....they will not have any capability to attempt another Invasion of Taiwan as China has VERY LITTLE Force Projection Capability....so what would China do? China know's that any further attempt's to cross over to Taiwan with Men and Material is just a waste as they cannot even traverse the short distance before U.S. Aircraft and Submarines destroy their Troop Carrier Ships. China understands that to just continue shooting Missiles at Taiwan does NOTHING to gain them control of the Island and if anything will cause the on the way Carrier Groups to target China's Missile Launchers. China knows that to go NUCLEAR is the WORSE thing they could do as China only has a total of 300 Nuclear Warheads and Chinese ICBM's are no where NEAR as accurate as U.S. ICBM's and as well China KNOWS the U.S. has a VERY SOPHISTICATED MULTI-LEVELED ANTI-MISSILE SYSTEM which is deployed at so many levels and distances between China and the United States and it is even deployed within all U.S. Naval Carrier Battle Groups. China also KNOWS the United States HAS OPERATIONAL DIRECT ENERGY WEAPON SYSTEMS which can be used as both Missile Defense AND used to target any Nations Weapon Systems and POPULATION CENTERS. Of this I can talk about a few in the public's consciousness deployed Direct Energy Weapon Systems. There are KNOWN to be at the VERY LEAST...2 Land Based Nuclear Supplied Power FEL's...Free Electron Laser Systems and an UNKNOWN number of deployed Over the Horizon Orbital Satellites. There are KNOWN to be at the very least 4 to 8 FEL's aboard Covert Ships in the Pacific. There are KNOWN to be MANY Land Based U.S. Military Particle Beam Anti-Missile Bases. There are KNOWN to be at least 4 MEB....Microwave Emission's Beam Sites....of Lethal Capability as we have many Non-Lethal MEB Mobile Units. And there are KNOWN to be a large number of High Velocity F-15 Launched Anti-Missile...Missiles mostly based in Alaska, Hawaii, Guam, California, Massachusetts, Florida, Many areas in Canada, Cuba....and other areas of the world. And of course there are many bases both on Land and on sea....Ticonderoga Class Aegis Cruisers....which use the SM-3 AMB/ASAT. The point of listing all that out is China cannot be certain that any Nuclear Missile it launches be it Ballistic or Hypersoic Cruise....will be able to penetrate U.S. Missile Defense. But CHINA KNOWS.....it does not have any capability whatsoever....ZERO CAPABILITY....to shoot down or destroy any incoming U.S. Missiles...Nuclear or otherwise. Against such lopsided odds in favor of the United States never mind the massive economic impact upon the Chinese Economy.....there is close to a ZERO% Probability that China would EVER attempt a Military Invasion of Taiwan and China CERTAINLY is NOT going to attempt any attack upon a USN. Carrier Battle Group....and an even LESS CHANCE...China would EVER attempt any Nuclear Detonation even if it was just a warning. AboveAlpha
They're attempting extortions and the like because Obama is perceived as a weakling anxious to placate them at almost any price, at the behest of bankers and multi-national interests who care nothing about U.S. interests and care obsessively only about their next quarters' profits.
Few corrections AA, but otherwise an excellent post. For one, the US does not have "loans" from China, they simply hold a lot of T-bills. No payment is made upon those until they mature. As for their economy, it would collapse. Expect the US and every NATO country to slap an immediate embargo on them, freezing assets and refusing all entry to ships from China (possibly even seizing any in their ports at the time). And I expect at least half of the rest of the world that is non-aligned would do the same thing. China's entire economy is geared around being the source of inexpensive goods to the world (primarily the US). The US is the largest destination of Chinese made goods, with a whopping 20% of their goods going to the US. China is also the source of about 19% of goods imported into the US. However, China gets only 7% of US exports (primarily raw materials - like ships to be scrapped for steel). What this means is a very one-sided trade war. Nothing China makes is really critical to the US. We can get out MP3 players and cell phones and fiberboard cribs from a great many countries (including domestic). We could ride out an embargo very easily, because they are only a supply source, they are not a major customer. We would continue to make money, selling to Canada, Mexico, the EU, and a great many other nations. China on the other hand would loose their #1 customer. Their factories would have to shut down, millions of their workers will be out of jobs because their #1 (and 2 and 3 and 4...) customers suddenly stopped trading with them. But back to the idea of a "Warning Nuke", that is exactly what would happen. DEFCON 2 or 1, I am betting it would be 1 because the use of a nuke means a "nuclear war" has indeed started, even if there is no reciprocal exchange as of yet. All strategic nuclear forces would be mobilized, subs at sea and moving to launch positions, all bombers and strategic aircraft in the air. At that point, any Chinese strategic forces found (submarines at sea, bombers and strike aircraft in the air) will be fair game, and any missile launch will immediately be responded to. Thankfully, I do not think China is that crazy, or that stupid. Personally, I do not think that the President is even a consideration. China has long had a Superiority Complex, and believes that they are entitled to anything that they want. This is simply the first time in a century thy have actually had the capability to try and do anything about it.
You know the Chinese Communist Party basically painted itself in a corner. Their plan was of the idea that if they could loan massive amounts of money to the United States that they thought holding the notes on such loans would allow China to be able to influence U.S. Policy and Military Activity. IT HAD THE EXACT OPPOSITE EFFECT. Rule #1 of Loaning Money....NEVER...EVER....Loan money to anyone that you have ZERO way of forcing payment. Since China is not even close to being a match Militarily against the United States and as well there is NOTHING that we import from China that we cannot easily do without....and of course the BIG ONE....CHINA DEPENDS upon the money it get's exporting a bunch of CRAP to the United States never mind the money it get's from....and I stand corrected....T-Bill money.....as without this money the Chinese Economy cannot survive. I have been to China several times and not just to the Cities which are the areas that the Chinese Communist Party tries to keep Tourists within as if you were able to get out to the Chinese Rural areas you would see EXTREME POVERTY as the CHINESE MIRACLE....is confined to the Chinese Urban Areas...as these are the areas the Communist Party spends money on in an attempt to show the world how MODERN China is...well...it is NOT. As I have stated many times...China under reports it's population as 1.3 Billion people as it is actually 1.7 Billion People. The REASON why China does this is to get groups such as the U.N., Amnesty International and a great number of Human Rights Groups off their backs. And as I have posted before...understand that China has a $6 Trillion Economy with 1.7 BILLION PEOPLE vs. a $17.7 Trillion U.S. Economy with only 317 Million People. This means the U.S. with only about 1/6th the population of China generates about 3 TIMES the Economy. This also means when China's Communist Party spends BILLIONS UPON BILLIONS developing Urban Areas containing less than 10% of the total Chinese Population all in an effort to PROVE to the World that their NOW COMPLETELY IRRELEVANT Communist Party is doing a great job...as China is NOT a Communist System anymore it is a CAPITALISTIC SYSTEM....BUT....the Leadership members of the Chinese Communist Party who all live LIKE KINGS and are MILLIONAIRES OR BILLIONAIRES....try to justify their continued existence to the world and Chinese People...and by doing so allow Poverty and Starvation in Rural China to go unchecked. I have formed some close bonds and friendships in China as I KNOW it is just a matter of time before the Chinese People get sick of being treated like children and remove the Communist Party from power. One of the toughest groups to remove will be the Communist Party's Military Ideology Division as this division can best be associated with the Nazi Gestapo and just to let you know just how bad this Division's ideology is and how deep it run's....a few years back they EXECUTED two Brothers who were selling Unsanctioned Hollywood Movies that the two Brothers had LEGALLY purchased the rights from the U.S. Companies to download and duplicate into a number of Blue Ray Discs and sell them but some of these Movies were NOT SANCTIONED TO BE SEEN BY THE CHINESE POPULATION DUE TO THEIR IMPERIALISTIC CONTENT!!! The names of some of these unsanctioned movies? RED...staring Bruce Wilis. THOR....the Uncensored Chinese Version. IRON MAN 2....the Uncensored Chinese Version. AVATAR.....AVATAR????????!!!!!????....they showed this film in China but it those Chinese living and effected by the Three Gorges Dam Project associated Avatar with how the Chinese Military was force relocating villagers in the area and so when Avatar was in theaters the Chinese Communist Party announced Avatar would ONLY be shown in 3-D Theaters as they said no one wanted to see Avatar in 2-D but the REASON for this was in Rural China THERE ARE NO 3-D THEATERS....and the Rural Living Chinese People were going to see Avatar in droves and they associated this movie to their forced relocation thus the Chinese Communist Party PURPOSELY LIED saying no one wanted to see Avatar in 2-D and they were shutting down all Non-3-D Avatar showing Theaters as to allow room to show the Chinese Created Movie Confucius staring Chow Yong Fat. So these 2 Chinese Brothers were selling 100's of Thousand's of Unsanctioned Hollywood Movies most of them being AVATAR. They were arrested by Military Members of the Chinese Communist Revolutionary Ideology Division....jailed...tortured and them BOTH SHOT IN THE HEAD EXECUTION STYLE.....and then on top of it all both men's families WERE SENT A BILL FOR EACH BULLET USED IN THEIR EXECUTION!!! I KID YOU NOT!!! AboveAlpha
