What caused the ice age?

Discussion in 'Science' started by Equality, Dec 2, 2017.

  1. Hoosier8

    Hoosier8 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Natural climate change is an hypothesis?
     
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  2. TheDonald

    TheDonald Well-Known Member

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    Thank you...............................
     
  3. iamanonman

    iamanonman Well-Known Member

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    No, see post #316.
     
  4. iamanonman

    iamanonman Well-Known Member

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    You've finally done it. That is indeed one of the hypothesis of AGW!

    Now, all you have to do to falsify the hypothesis "humans are the primary cause of global warming today" is to present a really convincing argument that a particular natural mechanism (or set of them) explains the rise in the global mean temperature.

    And by "convincing argument" I mean you need to identify it, explain how it works, and show that its effect matches that which is need to cause the observed warming. In other words, you have to actually be convincing. Scientists have really good bulls**t filters.

    Affirming a disjunct. You are arguing if A then not B. The problem is you haven't shown that A and B are mutually exclusive. In other words you must show that A=[nature can do it] precludes B=[humans can do it]. That's going to be a tough task as there are thousands of counter examples we could use to falsify your hypothesis. So in the words of Carl Sagan, "extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence".
     
    Last edited: Dec 17, 2017
  5. Cosmo

    Cosmo Well-Known Member

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    You're projecting again.
     
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  6. Cosmo

    Cosmo Well-Known Member

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    He's clueless.
    The Dunning-Kruger effect (also Mount Stupid or Smug Snake), named after David Dunning and Justin Kruger of Cornell University, occurs where people fail to adequately assess their level of competence — or specifically, their incompetence — at a task and thus consider themselves much more competent than everyone else. This lack of awareness is attributed to their lower level of competence robbing them of the ability to critically analyse their performance, leading to a significant overestimation of themselves.
    In simple words it's "people who are too stupid to know how stupid they are".
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning–Kruger_effect
     
    Last edited: Dec 17, 2017
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  7. iamanonman

    iamanonman Well-Known Member

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    Interesting. I hadn't heard of this before. It's kind of the opposite of Einstein's famous quote "The more I learn, the more I realize how much I don't know." Anyway, I suppose it's possible. I mean, it's either this or the guy is a troll.
     
    Last edited: Dec 17, 2017
  8. Distraff

    Distraff Well-Known Member

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    No, just because one thing caused something in the past doesn't mean a new thing can't cause it now. For example before humans existed nature caused wildfires and now that humans exist we cause wildfires too.
     
  9. Max Rockatansky

    Max Rockatansky Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    ....soon to be renamed "the Donald" effect in President Trump's honor.

    http://www.columbia.edu/~da358/publications/ames_kammrath_mindreading.pdf
    We find that those who perform the worst in social judgment and mindreading radically overestimate their relative competence. We also find origins of these self-estimates in general narcissistic tendencies toward self-aggrandizement. We discuss evidence from two studies, one involving the Interpersonal Perception Task (the IPT-15) and another focusing on inferences about partners after a face-to-face negotiation exercise. In both cases, actual performance did not predict self-estimated performance but narcissism did.
    [​IMG]
     
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  10. Max Rockatansky

    Max Rockatansky Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Additionally, slash-and-burn agriculture is not only putting more carbon in the atmosphere, but reduces the very thing that helps remove carbon; forests.

    http://www.ecologic.org/actions-issues/challenges/slash-burn-agriculture/
    Slash-and-burn agriculture has been used in Central America and Mexico for thousands of years. But today, with more people than ever trying to survive in the midst of dwindling natural resources, its impact is particularly destructive and unsustainable.

    There are many problems that result from this method of growing crops, including deforestation, a direct consequence of cutting down forests for crop land; loss of habitat and species; an increase in air pollution and the release of carbon into the atmosphere—which contributes to global climate change; and an increase in accidental fires. Slash and burn agriculture also results in significant soil erosion and accompanying landslides, water contamination, and/or dust clouds, as without trees and vegetation and their root systems, soil washes away during heavy rains and blows away during droughts
    .
     
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  11. TheDonald

    TheDonald Well-Known Member

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    Then you tell us all why and when I was wrong......................

    You can't, because I am never wrong
    You mean Al Bore was projecting...................his ignorance
     
  12. TheDonald

    TheDonald Well-Known Member

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    And you want trillions of dollars because of a hypothesis that has no evidence to support it
     
  13. Max Rockatansky

    Max Rockatansky Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    ROFL

    http://www.columbia.edu/~da358/publications/ames_kammrath_mindreading.pdf
    We find that those who perform the worst in social judgment and mindreading radically overestimate their relative competence. We also find origins of these self-estimates in general narcissistic tendencies toward self-aggrandizement. We discuss evidence from two studies, one involving the Interpersonal Perception Task (the IPT-15) and another focusing on inferences about partners after a face-to-face negotiation exercise. In both cases, actual performance did not predict self-estimated performance but narcissism did.
     
  14. iamanonman

    iamanonman Well-Known Member

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    As I've already told you I don't want to spend trillions of dollars on AGW. There's a difference in acknowledging the science and making political decisions based on it. I'm not sure we need to do anything about AGW, but at least I'm man enough to admit that it's happening and that my position can be interpreted as destructive apathy by hardened alarmists.
     
    Last edited: Dec 18, 2017
  15. Max Rockatansky

    Max Rockatansky Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Dude, you're trying to reason with a person who sincerely believes they are never, ever wrong. Think about it.
     
  16. TheDonald

    TheDonald Well-Known Member

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    You neglected to point out anything that I said which was wrong..................

    LOL because you can't
     
  17. TheDonald

    TheDonald Well-Known Member

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    Look kid, the Paris accord would cost the USA 3 trillion dollars, get educated before you humiliate yourself even more

    How much was the Paris accord costing the US?
    Complying with Paris would cost U.S. $3 trillion. Mr. Trump: "The cost to the economy at this time would be close to $3 trillion in lost GDP and 6.5 million industrial jobs."Jun 2, 2017
     
  18. TheDonald

    TheDonald Well-Known Member

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    Look kid, you can prove me delusional by pointing out my mistakes..........

    That is if I made any?

    LOL waiting
     
  19. Max Rockatansky

    Max Rockatansky Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I and several others already have done so. The fact you are in denial of them is not anyone's problem but yours.

    Please have joy in your belief you are completely perfect, faultless and without error. All Christians know that they are flawed, so you obviously are not a Christian...but it's possible you believe you are Jesus. Do you believe you are the Son of God, Donald?
     
  20. TheDonald

    TheDonald Well-Known Member

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    You have not even attempted to say that I am wrong, because you can't. Silly little child
     
  21. iamanonman

    iamanonman Well-Known Member

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    I'm thinking there really is something to this Dunning-Kruger effect. The sad part is that studies show that those who have this cognitive bias do not learn from feedback suggesting that they need to improve their knowledge base.
     
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  22. Max Rockatansky

    Max Rockatansky Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Looks sound to me. From previous studies, I've found narcissists to be more on the side of mentally ill than in the side of mentally stable.
     
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  23. Cosmo

    Cosmo Well-Known Member

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  24. TheDonald

    TheDonald Well-Known Member

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    Another fail
     
  25. JakeJ

    JakeJ Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Unless insane or otherwise mentally defective, all humans - all animals - are narcissists. It is only a question of the degree and application of it.
     
    Last edited: Dec 19, 2017

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