Will Covid-19 determine the outcome of November 2020?

Discussion in 'Coronavirus Pandemic Discussions' started by Quantum Nerd, Mar 7, 2020.

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  1. bigfella

    bigfella Well-Known Member

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    There is a lot to this. If the economy struggles it will hurt Trump. As you point out, Presidents ultimately get held to account for the state of the economy. Thus far trump has been able to claim that the economy is going well, but if it dips as America swings into election season that impact will loom a lot larger than the past 4 years.

    The handling of the virus itself may or may not have an impact. If this turns big and messy and thousands die then it will hurt even if Trump appears to have done a good job (and thus far he has been average at best). If it has a significant but not disastrous impact then perceptions of Trump's behaviour will matter. If he is seen to have taken the crisis seriously & done the right things it will help, if not it will hurt. If this turn out to be nothing it helps him, though how much is hard to estimate.

    Both sides of politics need to be very, very careful about politicising this. That sort of behaviour can backfire very easily. So far the signs are not positive.
     
  2. Crawdadr

    Crawdadr Well-Known Member

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    Really? China hid important facts that killed Americans and hid important information to save more of their citizens! That sounds like the kind of fear talk Trump would love to use and the average citizen will eat up. Just more reason to blame the "bad" guy. for our problems.
     
  3. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    Exactly what information did China "hide" and when did they do that?
     
  4. Sleep Monster

    Sleep Monster Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    LOL! I have have excellent and very affordable healthcare ... Medicare plus a Blue Cross/Blue Shield supplement. No deductibles, no copayments, see any doctors I want whenever I feel the need.

    I mention this because I want ALL Americans to have what I have, if they so choose.
     
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  5. TOG 6

    TOG 6 Well-Known Member

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    Any American -can- have what you have, if they so choose.
     
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  6. FAW

    FAW Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Under normal circumstances, Presidents are in fact held to account for the state of the economy during their watch. However, this principle does not always apply. Bush was rightly not held to account for the economic crash that followed 9/11 because it obviously was due to a calamity outside of his control rather than his economic policies. The same principle would likely apply to a theoretical economic crash that resulted from a worldwide pandemic. That may not be what rabid Trump haters want to hear, but it is a logical interpretation nonetheless.
     
    Last edited: Mar 10, 2020
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  7. doombug

    doombug Well-Known Member

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    I am sure the dems are wishing for a high body count to use for political gain. I hope they are disappointed.
     
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  8. FAW

    FAW Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Interesting. How many years did you pay into that healthcare in order for it to be "affordable" for you now?
     
    Last edited: Mar 10, 2020
  9. 557

    557 Well-Known Member

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    Maybe the cheek kissing wasn’t such a good idea! :)
     
  10. EyesWideOpen

    EyesWideOpen Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The people unfairly claiming "Trump should have treated the virus with the seriousness that it deserves from the beginning," never bother to comprehend how previous disease outbreaks were handled. Trump was doing these things well in advance of other outbreaks, such as in January, Trump declared a national medical emergency, started quarantine procedures for people arriving from overseas, and even banned foreigners from certain infected countries from entering the US.

    Nothing Trump does is on his own, he is taking advice from career medical experts. No president can make these decisions without consulting with the experts, and even the experts have dozens and dozens of differing opinions.

    Trump will be accused of being a xenophobe for banning entrance from infected nations, and he'd blamed for not doing enough if he didn't ban those people. It's a lose - lose, so he's just doing what it takes to keep us safe, without resorting to shutting down the entire country as if we were under some kind of a zombie plague.
     
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  11. FatBack

    FatBack Well-Known Member

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    Very well said, the Trump haters will complain no matter what to make political hay of it. Partisan hackery, nothing more.
     
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  12. bigfella

    bigfella Well-Known Member

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    No, a logical interpretation is that this is not remotely like 9/11 & thus any assumption that it will be treated in the same way is highly speculative at best. That is a Trump-neutral assessment.

    9/11 was a single, very narrowly confined event about which Bush could do little. It was also a deliberate attack on America that not only produced a 'rally round the flag' effect, but also rapidly precipitated a war that had the same short to medium term impact. It is impossible to separate reactions to the economic impact to reactions to the terrorist attack & subsequent war.

    If you want a closer example try Hurricane Katrina. For all the blame shifting that went on, ultimately a lot of people held Bush responsible for the failure to effectively respond to a major natural disaster in a major US city. While that was only one factor in the 2006 mid-terms, it was undoubtedly a factor. Whether or not it was fair or reasonable for people to punish Bush for this is 100% beside the point, it happened.

    COVID-19 is a rolling health crisis that is producing a potential economic problem as a secondary effect. It is a bit like a natural disaster, but a slow moving one where there is a reasonable expectation that the Trump Administration will take effective action to limit the spread & impact of the disease. There is simply no way to separate the impact of the disease from the actions of government, no matter how much people might want to. Thus, if Trump is seen to handle it badly it is hardly a stretch that there will be some association of negative impact with him or his Administration. Similarly, economic impacts will have flow on political effects.

    Trump has staked a great deal on a successful economy. With an election looming any economic issue is going to have an impact. That might not be what rabid Trump supporters want to hear, but it is a logical interpretation nonetheless.
     
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  13. Professor Peabody

    Professor Peabody Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Covid-19 will be but a distant memory by June. Viruses usually run their course and die off in the hot weather. The economy will come roaring back and Trump will take the credit for conquering Corona Virus.
     
  14. bigfella

    bigfella Well-Known Member

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    If you say so.
     
  15. FAW

    FAW Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    So you have written all of this, in a conversation about a theoretical economic collapse, to declare that this theoretical economic collapse due to the coronoavirus is NOT analogous to the economic collapse following 9/11, and it is instead analogous to Hurricane Katrina that had no economic collapse at all.

    ...LOL...I am sorry but that is just silly.

    For good measure, take a look at this link.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

    Scan down to the chart that lists the total cases per 1 million people. Notice how many countries are up into the 100+ cases per million of their population. Notice how many countires are in the 75+ cases per million, how many in the 50+ per million...then 30+ per million. The look all the way down to countries that have an infectioin rate of 3.1 per million. Yes that one. That is the United States. It has an infection rate of 3.1 per million people.

    Yes that country near the bottom of that list. You are sitting here and trying to somehow lay blame for this calamity at the foot of the president of the country that sits almost at the bottom of that list. It is utterly absurd. Now, theoretically, if somehow we shoot near the top of that list you MIGHT be able to somehow affix blame to our government, but at this moment if anything our government should be credited with being near the bottom of that list, especially considering that in comparison to most of the African and S American countries at the bottom we have far more international travel.

    If you want to sit here and imagine in your head some type of scenario where the United States becomes the epicenter of this disease and that multiple government failures are legitimately proven to be the reason, and that the economy tanks as a result....well sure...in that scenario it could be laid at the feet of Trump. The problem that you have is that at this moment that is nothing more than a frustrated leftists wet dream. If we are going to say that virus results are a function of government, than he should be praised at this moment.

    If wishes and butts were candy and nuts....THEN WE'D ALL HAVE A MERRY CHRISTMAS!

    It is sad that many on the left are relegated to rooting for a calamity that they can blame on our President. Truly sad indeed!
     
    Last edited: Mar 11, 2020
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  16. Sleep Monster

    Sleep Monster Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    For $3,660 per year?
     
  17. Quantum Nerd

    Quantum Nerd Well-Known Member

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    One reason why our numbers are low is because we are dramatically behind in getting people tested. It is a tragedy that South Korea has managed to test 200,000+ people, the US has tested less than 10,000.

    Second, even if the numbers are lower TODAY, we are only 1-2 weeks behind the countries that have higher per capita numbers of positive cases. Right now, it looks like we are squandering these 1-2 weeks by telling the population (to paraphrase) "nothing to see here, keep doing your normal things so you don't hurt the Trump economy.
     
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  18. Sleep Monster

    Sleep Monster Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    About 48 years. Why do you ask?
     
  19. FAW

    FAW Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    One thing is for certain, we are not behind in counting deaths. Our deaths per million people is also near the bottom, despite the fact that we strangely have a nursing home that accounts for the majority of those deaths ( I suspect it must have contained a long term ventilator unit).

    What will happen in the future?...Only time will tell. My larger overall point is that the left is at this very moment is in this bizarre situation where we are performing better than almost all others, yet they are rooting for the numbers to go South so that somehow they can attach those numbers to Trump.

    Take politics out of this......Do I honestly believe that we should be closing down our entire country? Absolutely not. We are at like 4 or 5 thousand worldwide deaths due to this outbreak. That number is infinitessimal in comparison to how many the flu kills every year ( yes even with the flu vaccine it kills between 300,000 and 750,000 annually), and we do not shut down the world yearly due to the flu. In fact, in any given year, almost no one cares enough to even know if we are nearer the bottom end or top end of that range for that year. Now we are counting every one of them and somehow trying to pretend like our President is to blame. It is utterly absurd.
     
  20. Bluesguy

    Bluesguy Well-Known Member Donor

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    Why should it? We have the top experts in the country if not the world going full throttle. The stockmarket is the stockmarket and how could you blame Republicans or Trump for that? They seem to be taking steps to help mitigate the economic effects but there will be some. I think the Democrats better walk softly trying to use it as a political hammer to attack Trump because when really questioned none have any better answers.
     
  21. FAW

    FAW Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Well.... because if you paid into it for 48 years plus interest in order for it to be solvent, is it REALLY as "affordable" as you are claiming?
     
    Last edited: Mar 11, 2020
  22. Sleep Monster

    Sleep Monster Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    $3,660 per year. I call that a bargain, even when you figure in what I paid over the decades. Free would be better, but I mention this in the first place because it is my opinion that if given the option to choose Medicare regardless of age, millions will flock to it. The health insurance industry is not happy about that, and successfully vilified the idea back in 2009.
     
  23. FAW

    FAW Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Obviously my point went over your head.

    It is NOT $3660 per year. It is the 48 years of totaled contributions that you made ( plus interest), in addition to the $3660 that you now pay. From a short sighted perspective, it may seem like a bargain to you now, but to someone that understands the value of 48 years of paid in contributions in addition to the interest on that money, they realize you have paid an extraordinary amount of money. I dont suspect that you are going to grasp this concept. I suspect that you probably also think that you have made money when you get a tax refund.
     
    Last edited: Mar 11, 2020
  24. Quantum Nerd

    Quantum Nerd Well-Known Member

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    No big deal, right? That's why you self-quarantine?

    My feeling: Trump fans talk a good talk about the media overhyping the virus on anonymous internet forums. Privately, they stay home and avoid any un-necessary personal interactions..
     
  25. Crawdadr

    Crawdadr Well-Known Member

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    Numbers, seriousness, that aliens caused it, I dont think Trump cares as long as it sounds scary.
     

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