Climate change: We haven't experienced anything like this in the past 2,000 yearsClimate scientists

Discussion in 'Science' started by Bowerbird, Jul 25, 2019.

  1. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Read his book. It’s not a report. The review the hundreds of scientific papers on the MWP, Roman WP, and Minoan Warm Period. Then you will clearly understand that warming is beneficial.
     
  2. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    Lamb wrote:
    "It is to be noted here that there is no necessary contradiction between forecast expectations of (a) some renewed (or continuation of) slight cooling of world climate for some years to come, e.g. from volcanic or solar activity variations; (b) an abrupt warming due to the effect of increasing carbon dioxide, lasting some centuries until fossil fuels are exhausted and a while thereafter; and this followed in turn by (c) a glaciation lasting (like the previous ones) for many thousands of years.”

    His book was written in 1977.

    We are now in the "b" of his "a b c".
     
  3. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    These ancient societies are substantially different from those of today.

    There is no indication that the warming we're experiencing today will be beneficial to the world population as a whole - even if it happens to advantage specific locations, such as Siberia. And, I doubt Siberia will be willing to welcome and feed those who need to move.
     
  4. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    My daughter just returned from a visit her husband's family in Aus. She had an absolutely fabulous time. It's winter - a welcome relief from Boston summer!
     
  5. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    So, your guy says abrupt warming due to CO2 for some centuries.

    Before, you argued that wasn't happening.

    NOW, you're trying to sell that as a "beneficial"?
     
  6. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    1995
     
  7. tharock220

    tharock220 Well-Known Member

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    I understand probably as well as the average college educated non scientist.

    I'd love to read the offending post.
     
  8. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The consensus of economic papers which include the benefits of global warming show that global warming is net beneficial for the next ~ 3 deg C of warming. Using the A1B CO2 projection and a climate sensitivity of 2 deg C it will take 150 years for that warming to occur. The cost-benefit curve goes negative due to increased air conditioning costs using today’s technology.
     
  9. BuckyBadger

    BuckyBadger Well-Known Member

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  10. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    What abrupt warming ???

    Global warming is beneficial. Humans have historically always made significantly better progress in warm periods and significantly suffered during cold periods.
     
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  11. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The hockey stick fallacy won’t go away until government subsidies go away.
     
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  12. Zorro

    Zorro Well-Known Member

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    So stable over 2,000 years within an 8,000 year cooling trend, which would indicate that we are not in immediate danger of a fresh glacial advance, which is certainly welcome news. The last interglacial lasted 15,000 years, and then was followed by a 100,000 years of glacial advance. If ours lasts as long, we should have another 3500 years of welcome warmth before the next glacial advance.

    [​IMG]
     
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  13. Nightmare515

    Nightmare515 Ragin' Cajun Staff Member Past Donor

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    Alright even to this day it seems that not everyone can believe that current climate change is the direct result of humans or the Earth simply following it's natural cycle. One of the more popular consensus' is that it's a mix of both, as in yes the Earth is warming and yes the Earth does that on it's own but humans are helping to speed up the process. That's one of the most popular theories and one of the ones that most people can actually agree on. So lets go with one.

    Here's the problem. What are we supposed to do? Seriously, get rid of the emotional aspect of this, what are we realistically supposed to do?

    This is one of those times where people like AOC are actually correct and I actually respect her and her cohorts for having the courage to just flat out say it even though it's so implausible that most people say she is ridiculous. It would take a policy such as her Green New Deal proposal to actually slow this down or stop it if thats what we genuinely wanted to do. We would have to collapse modern society tomorrow if we wanted to effectively combat this.

    I know people like to feel like they are in control and feel like they are "making a difference" but it's all smoke and mirrors. Buying your little reusable straws on Amazon is doing NOTHING. Absolutely NOTHING at all. It makes you feel good, you aren't helping. Running around picking up trash which has become one of the young people's recent internet "challenges" (good on them btw) is still doing NOTHING in the grand scheme of things. It's akin to trying to bail water out of an aircraft carrier using a syringe with a house sized hole in the other side.

    What is required to actually "fix" this is a radical and damn near immediate change in modern civilization, basically what AOC said. Cattle production would have to be reduced by unrealistic orders of magnitude. Fossil fuel reduction by unrealistic orders of magnitude. The global fishing industry reduced by unrealistic orders of magnitude. All of it, RIGHT NOW. Not next year, not in 20 years. Right now. And the entire industrialized world would have to all do it together.

    There goes your modern civilization overnight and that is the part that the climate change alarmists understand but I don't believe understand what that actually means in practice. So many people believe that "if we all just cut back on eating steaks to once or twice per week then it would work out". It's way more than that. You're talking corporations closing immediately, fast food joints, restaurants, etc. All of them gone. Your eating of steaks and Hamburger Helper a couple nights a week doesn't even remotely compare to McDonalds. And with these businesses all collapsing there goes hundreds of thousands of jobs. Now what? Now tackle the commercial fishing industry, that's where most of that plastic in the oceans comes from. Regulate the ever loving crap out of it, slow it down massively. There goes a massive food source for hundreds of millions of people in the world. Fossil fuels? Cut them in half, see what that does to global trade, transportation, getting to your job, etc.

    The list can go on forever as can the spider web of effects from trying to implement such policies without even getting to mention the fact that not everybody is going to actually do that and how the Chinese would laugh their butt's off as America purposefully collapses it's own economy while they do a little here and there to smile in front of the UN.

    Here is the sad reality that people don't want to hear. Our modern world, Western society in it's current state, our standards of living, our global economy's, our Taco Bell's, our iPhone's, etc all exists BECAUSE we **** the planet up. Our way of life is sustained by the fact that we consume MASSIVE amounts of natural resources and the reason why you can grab a drive thru burger is because of deforestation. There's a reason there's a saying that if everybody on Earth lived like American's we'd need 4 planets and if we all lived like Europe we'd need 2 or 3.

    Some people think that the only change we'd see in our lives would be having to carpool sometimes and only eating beef on the weekends and bringing duffel bags to Wal Mart instead of using their plastic ones. That doesn't even come close to the tip of the iceberg of massive changes that would take place in all rungs of society if we had any realistic shot a combating global warming.

    It's not that we don't care or we don't believe it's actually happening, it's a question of what the hell do you really expect us to do? There is nothing we can do beyond "feel good" measures that wouldn't have a MASSIVE impact on modern society and countless 2nd, 3rd, and 18th order effects thereafter. We do not have the technology to maintain our current modern society without our unsustainable resource consumption which has negative impacts on the environment. Our modern societal machine is designed to run this way and there is nothing we can do about it besides shutting it off, tearing it down, and rebuilding it from scratch so that it's powered by a more environmentally friendly fuel source instead of the blood of endangered Tigers and tropical rainforests.

    The big problem is that shutting the machine off isn't actually possible...And THAT is what people are saying. I know it'll be incoming soon: "Well what we just say screw it then and let the planet die?!"

    Yeah pretty much. I'm not saying just throw your hands up and start dumping motor oil in the rivers or anything but all of our little regulations and paper straw drinking isn't going to stop this. We may be able to slow it down a little bit if humanity itself all pitched in but humanity itself isn't going to make the actual sacrifices required to stop this.
     
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  14. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The next glacial period is not going to be pretty. Cold kills.
     
  15. Polydectes

    Polydectes Well-Known Member

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    Deny it or not, there's nothing you or your government can do about it. For every electric car Australians make Chinese make 600 conventional vehicles. For every regulation you put in your industry India will undercut you and to hell with their environment they don't care.

    Go down this road and the only thing that will be extinct is you.
     
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  16. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Actually the Chinese will sell the Aussies parts to build the electric cars thus benefiting whilst the Aussies reduce their economic growth.
     
  17. Fred C Dobbs

    Fred C Dobbs Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Has it always been humans who were responsible for changes in the climate or were there other phenomena? Some scientists require more evidence, i.e. a more scientific approach than a suggestion.
     
  18. Zorro

    Zorro Well-Known Member

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    If it's like the one previous to this one, it should last for another 3-4 millennia and hopefully we will use that time to figure how to survive a 100k years of glacial advances. The solution will not be windmills and fermenting switch grass.
     
  19. Polydectes

    Polydectes Well-Known Member

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    And the 600 conventional vehicles they make for every one EV?
     
  20. aenigma

    aenigma Well-Known Member

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    People can survive -50 if wel prepared, but it would suck
    you wont survive long periods of +50 celcius though even when you run arround with your naked ass
     
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  21. Jimmy79

    Jimmy79 Banned

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    Interesting. People have been living in +50c environments for the last 5000 years or so.
     
  22. truth and justice

    truth and justice Well-Known Member

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    So humans are thriving in the Sahara desert? Any rise in sea temperature over time will have a detrimental effect on ocean life. The ocean is the main source of oxygen in the atmosphere
     
  23. Canell

    Canell Well-Known Member

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    If you are complaining of Boston summer, what should Floridians or Texans say? :lol:
     
  24. fmw

    fmw Well-Known Member

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    So are you going to explain how giving money to government reduces global warming?
     
  25. Hoosier8

    Hoosier8 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Have before, Will again. Cold kills more than heat.
     
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