CNN had a field day with its chyrons during Trump's 'meltdown' at his coronavirus briefing

The models, and the terror they instilled in hundreds of millions of Americans, are explicitly the reason why the current projected death totals are so much lower.

 

Incorrect, the models where incorrect from the beginning and only caused a panic and a crushing of the economy.

This was a planned hit job on Trump.

 

No, they're giving their opinion.

 

And how long did it take Sleepy Joe to support it?

 

...the models predicting millions of dead Americans in the absence of strict epidemic controls is a planned hit job on Trump? What the ****?

If the country did not accept and embrace the strict epidemic control figures, the current death estimates would be a lot closer to the original 1.5-2.25 million estimate.

As it is, we are still losing a 9/11's worth of Americans every other day.

 

How long did it take Trump to stop saying that we have this virus completely under control and that we need to ramp up testing?

 

There are models that claimed to account for "full social distancing measures" and they were still WAY too high in their estimates. The models were wrong. Face facts, dude.

 

And the newer models - the one adopted by the US government - gave an estimate, assuming full social distancing measures, of 35k-185k.

But here's the thing, the virus has killed nearly 35,000 American citizens in three weeks. So it is the height of idiocy to claim that those models which predicted the death totals based on how many have died in three weeks.

 

The models have more than just a prediction about the total number of deaths. They also have daily projections, so we can look back over that three week period and see if the models have been tracking reality or not. If we do that, we find that they have not been, or at least were not until they were revised significantly downward.

US COVID-19 deaths "poorly predicted" by IHME model

 

Vs. 2,000,000 deaths your goto model predicted 2 weeks ago. I don't want to minimize the numbers but you of all people should be happy the action resulted in the model reducing deaths by 1,999,940.00. That's a GREAT THING.

 

....dude. Have you still not learned how to do subtraction?

And must you still continue trotting out the worst case prediction from that model as a taunt when that worst case scenario assumed zero compliance with any epidemic control?

 

The problem with comparing the day to day predictions of a model against the results is the fact that the results are subject to things like reporting lag and reporting mistakes. That's why the models include massive margins of error even one day into the future. The results have very closely matched the projected line and very easily fit within the margin of errors that they provided as well.

Case in point are the ~3,000 new deaths that NYC just added because of their previous refusal to count those who died at home. Another is the fact that there is a several day lag (and the amount of that lag varies from state to state) between when a death happens and when the state actually reports that death as a covid death.

 

Too long. How long did it take Sleepy Joe to support the China travel ban?

 

No, in reality they have not, which is why the previously-linked article starts out:

And continues later:

This isn't commentary by Trump supporters, or Fox News analysts. It's "An international group of renowned statisticians from the University of Sydney, Northwestern University and the University of Texas". I suppose you can continue to deny / ignore it if you want, but what you're denying / ignoring is, in fact, reality.

 

What would have been achieved by Trump SAYING the right things?

 

Governors who have the authority to issue shut down orders for their state, like Georgia and Florida, would have done so sooner.

Trump supporters who spent weeks mocking liberals as chicken littles would have taken the virus seriously and altered their own behavior sooner as well as encouraged Republican leaders to do the same.

 

Incorrect lots of Florida counties where shutting down long before Trump mentioned anything about it.

 

And why would they have done that exactly?

What do you mean their "behavior?"

 

I'm guessing he means a state wide order.

 

Florida has home rule, that allows the counties to decide for themselves what constitutes a need for a shutdown, because of that most of the West coast, excepting Tampa (Democrat controlled) and SW coast shut down in the beginning of March, the Democratically controlled SE, not wanting to lose tourism money remained open, including all the beaches and now is the epicenter of the virus in Florida.

On the upside, the new infection rate has dropped below 50% of it's peak.

 

So all home rule states did not implement a state wide shut down?

 

The "Newer" models are based on the older models being wrong.. Its easy to create models AFTER THE FACT to make the models look better

 

The models highlight that trump’s quick action and responds saved millions.

millions would have died had Quid pro Joe been president, considering he wouldn’t of even restricted travel til April.

 

Find me a single model, or even a single reputable estimate, that attempted to estimate the impact of Trump's magical bandaid which somehow negated all of the other **** ups he made.

 

The entire point of models is to predict the future based on current knowledge. When the current knowledge changes, you adjust the models.

It is entirely idiotic to bash epidemiologists and infectious disease experts and data scientists who created these models because their attempts to model a NOVEL virus for which there was ZERO data before four months ago were inaccurate.