Coronavirus now leading cause of death in US

Statistics, epidemiology, public health, or medicine. At least 2 out of 4 will suffice.

 

Your straw man is noted and rejected. The statistic in the OP has nothing to do with the flu and your giant neon billboard should say this is a temporary very short term number.

 

Distancing was built into the first model.
The model was wrong.
And you have no data to support that our feel good distancing measures are doing anything.
But please, tell me the last time a virus that could be found in aerosols for several hours was slowed by any distancing measure.

 

Do tell your expertise.

Public health is where nursing school drop outs end up because they couldnt hack the simplified nursing school science classes.

A good epidemiologists would tell you that aerosolized viruses cant be stopped and distancing measures will not decrease deaths and might indeed increase them by not allowing herd immunity and viral burn out to occur as quick as possible.

You couldn't speak to the stats of the "model" because you've never seen it.

 

An MIT professor among others showed potential for horizontal transfer of viral particles far greater than 6 feet, but this was under certain conditions environmental context. It is not universally the case.

Data that social distancing is working:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/d...during-coronavirus-pandemic-works/ar-BB121IFN

https://www.geekwire.com/2020/pande...s-importance-social-distancing-china-seattle/


https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-deaths-projections-chart-f2725a44-160d-487a-87f5-7c54cad6a1b0.html

 

Your definition of public health is incorrect. Epidemiology is a branch of public health, otherwise known as a specialty within public health. I've seen many models in my background of: statistics, biology, epdemiology, finance, and public health, among others

 

What do you suggest i am ignoring now? Your unimpressive google search where you did not bother to read the articles?

Did you confuse the 2nd month of the year with the 4th?

You claimed all these experts said this was going to be horrible back in early Feb and the best you can do is an article about China?

 

In the articles they discuss how Navarro raised the concern in January. I'm not always in agreement his view on Chinese trade but he made the claim in January. Also, US intelligence warned Trump last year. This can all be easily verified. Wake up.

 

You are correct, and the OP as well as the article fully acknowledge that. As for the future drop in coronavirus related deaths, that will only happen depending on how successful we are at containing the virus. The daily death rate will surely go down if we are successful at containing the spread of this virus, and if not for the precautionary actions we have already taken, these numbers would be much much worse. However, if this virus were to become as common as the flu, the expected death rate would be in the millions

In the case of the coronavirus, awareness of how serious it is saves lives. The reason why the coronavirus is now the leading cause of death is how rapidly it has been able to spread. If we are successful at containing the virus, these numbers will surely go down, however if the virus is able to spread even more than it already has, the number of deaths could potentially be much much worse.

 

If it was "just" like the seasonal flu, you'd have years worth of data showing all the dates in each flu season where the leading cause of death was the flu that day. Please show me those statistics or admit, at least to yourself, that this is not the seasonal flu.

 

When isolation was starting to be taken seriously, IHME changed it's projection for peak deaths from 4/16 to yesterday, with a peak count from 3,300 to around 2,000. Today, we came in just under yesterday's high. Fingers crossed - we could be going down.

(Assumes people stay home during their holy holidays this month.)

 

Let's be a little more nuanced. For *some*, it is the new flu(see: Asymptomatic patients.). For those, who've already recovered or indeed haven't been infected at all, they cannot 'appreciate' the danger that they don't and haven't experienced.

For others on the other hand, it is lethal and dangerous. One of the reason for the antibody tests is to further define these two groups, so that those who can fight this thing, can and those who can't need never be exposed.

 

Was never meant to be anything other than a fear-placard to scare people and demoralize their political opposition into any faint, remaining glimmer of hope of obtaining power in 2020... which is all they care about. It's far more than "political squabbling as usual" engaging in this kind of ****, and a disgusting line they have crossed.

Many U.S. working people are being well-illuminated and enlightened about the true nature of many of our "civil servant" class during this moral panic, the rotten, self-serving propaganda they spew at every opportunity, as they sit comfy on their unearned pay and outrageous pensions, while their far harder-working private sector middle class betters go bankrupt... many will remember it.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/09/...sivir-kalil.html?smtyp=cur&smid=fb-nytscience

 

Beware the fear mongering Communists.

 

Lol

 

Really?

So if you lost your job (or if you run a business, lost all your customers) you wouldn’t worry about it until you can see the year end results?

 

No they did not.. Anyone involved that has been quoted denied it.. ABC said they had "sources".. Who are they?

 

Yes, and she said so in the context of a comparison to other countries, some of which are recording pre-existing conditions (e.g. heart condition) as the cause of death, even though the actual cause of death was Covid-19:

"There are other countries that if you had a pre-existing condition and, let's say, the virus caused you to go to the ICU, and then have a heart issue or kidney problem, some countries are recording that as a heart issue or a kidney issue and not a COVID-19 death."

In the US, however, "If someone dies with COVID-19, we are counting that as a COVID-19 death."​

And, in these cases, death certification would be completed in accordance with CDC guidance, which includes the requirement that "Covid–19 played a role in the death". Which is why Birx also referred to "the forms" and testing.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/vsrg/vsrg03-508.pdf

In fact, the concern here was under-reporting, which is why Birx went on to explain that this would be more likely in small rural locations with limited access to testing. And, why Dr. Fauci followed up by saying he found it hard to imagine that the death of someone in ICU with Covid-19 would instead be classified as caused by a pre-existing condition.

As Birx explained in a later briefing, pre-existing conditions make it more likely that someone dies from Covid-19, and in these cases Covid-19 (not the pre-existing conditions) is the cause of death.

Further, in response to the opposite suggestion - that Covid-19 deaths are inflated - Dr. Fauci told NBC:

“There is absolutely no evidence that that’s the case at all. I think it falls under the category of something that’s very unfortunate – these conspiracy theories that we hear about. Any time we have a crisis of any sort there is always this popping up of conspiracy theories.”
https://www.mediaite.com/tv/dr-fauc...g-inflated-no-evidence-thats-the-case-at-all/​

 

Was that the paper Fauci mocked evoking a "great sneeze"?

 

Half the population doesn't have preexisting conditions, but if it did, what you are suggesting is that half of the population across all age groups is at increased risk of dying from Covid-19. That's not the case in the slightest. It is unthinking misinformation worthy of a NYT, CNN breaking news headline. Multiple co-morbid conditions and being over 65 forms the cohort with an atypical risk rate.

No denying there are some anomalous outcomes involving younger people with and without comorbidities, tragic, but those deaths are few and against total deaths by all causes, statistical noise.

Covid-19 this Spring has borrowed against future deaths from Old Age this Fall. A thought I found within a 1918 influenza study published by the National Institute of Health, and borrowed. Borrowed seems to be the theme of the times. We're living longer, healthier lives thanks to impressive strides made in our knowledge of the body, its function and failure in a harsh environment. While the advances are amazing they aren't without limit.

Borrowed time. We've learned to compensate for body systems that falter. We artificially support systems by replacing failing functions with pharmaceuticals, but never perfectly. We repair mechanical injury with surgery or implanted devices, but never returning full function. We bolster the bodies immune system in it's fight to pathogens, but not all pathogens and not all completely. We kill cancers and errant growths with radical surgery and poisons, but mostly we just mitigate future growth. In these we extend life beyond where it would naturally extend. Lives are improved. Lives are lengthened. Yet importantly the body, outside of pathogen defeat, is never made whole but supported in a lesser state.

Borrowed time. We can support the ever diminishing vitality of our bodies but our imperfect artificial compensations begin to add up and eventually the inevitable decompensating cascade happens. There comes a time where the bodies natural decline reaches a point that it cannot, on its own. either support life or defend against any assault. This state can last years or until the next assault. This creates a growing population of aging people so fragile that life's balance can be tipped by an infected bed sore, a fall, exposure to cold temperature for an hour, a virus, digestive upset. This age group has grown in numbers never seen before.

The Covid-19 virus isn't really unique in it's ability cause deaths in the old. In fact it doesn't have the fatality rate in the aged cohort past influenza viruses have had. What's unique is the size of of the >70 population with multiple comorbidities owing their longevity to supportive medical treatment.

Our medical science advances created this very exposed and fragile group. That's a good thing. Their natural deaths now are not a moral failing or the Medical Communities failure, it's inevitable.

Interesting article from 2009 about the 1918 Influenza epidemic quoted below. Worth a read. Link.

Statistics? No need for analytics. Just pull up the Covid-19 fatality data from State Health Departments and read the ages out loud. It's evident, those in their advanced years, >80 especially, with multiple system deficiencies dependent on artificial support to live another day compose the overwhelming majority of fatalities. Is Covid-19 borrowing against their imminent death later this year? Without a doubt in my mind.

While Covid-19, admittedly, isn't influenza and some of it's aspects are unique in their gruesome effects, it's broad spread exploiting a large weakened or susceptible cohort of the general population is flu like. In 1917-18, the influenza pandemic found the usual groups, the very young and the very old. In this it wasn't spectacular, what made it historic is that it also found and killed a group unique to the times, tuberculosis-persons.

"Some of the huge losses of life resulting from the 1918 influenza epidemic were, in some sense, borrowed against future deaths from tuberculosis."

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2740912/

Like Orthomyxoviridae exploited a large unique cohort weakened by tuberculosis, so has Covid-19 with the very old living at the extreme edge of life's envelope artificially sustained there by human technology.

Cheers
Labour

 

Not disappearing, but the inevitable mislabeling in the chaos.

Don't let the chart going around with the dangling 2020 flu deaths confuse you. They always lag reports in the CDC real time charts changing day by day.




Now, where coding is becoming reckless, unhelpful and injurious to science is labeling all deaths associate with or potentially associated to Covid-19 as Covid-19 deaths. A 94 year old with dementia, non-ambulatory, a DNR order in place, heart disease, diabetes and kidney failure that dies after infection with Covid-19 should not be coded to show Covid-19 as the cause of death.

 

The most popular tactic used to dismiss facts is to call them conspiracy theories. Fauci and Birx chose to err on the side of inflating the covid-19 numbers so people who are otherwise prone to choose liberty would comply with the fascist dictates driven by their numbers. Any attempt to compare Covid-19 deaths with individual pre-existing conditions is disingenuous at best. Going back to the OP, the average total daily deaths from the beginning of March to the beginning of April 2020 from all causes being 8110, including Covid-19, looks to be the same total deaths in March of 2017, here:

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/68/wr/mm6826a5.htm

No?

 

I never made such a claim but this is a standard leftist ploy. Put words in your opponents mouth then attempt to get them to defend what they never said. This is why it's impossible to have an honest conversation with a leftist.

 

On the day of the tsunami in Thailand tsunamis were the leading cause of drowning but that in no way makes tsunamis the leading cause of drowning which remains to be swimming pools.