Has the Global Temperature Trend Turned to Cooling?

The New Pause lengthens to 8 years 9 months
Guest Blogger
The end date is the present; the start date is the farthest back one can reach and still find a zero trend. It is what it is. . . .

 

The AGW propaganda must have worn out the awesome CO2 molecule resilience and tolerance thus decided to be more easily eaten by plants to get out of the air.

 

Score another win for the skeptics.
Ross McKitrick: The important climate study you won’t hear about
Guest Blogger
…the atmosphere has warmed at half the average rate predicted by climate models over the same period.

". . . Zou’s team notes that their findings “have strong implications for trends in climate model simulations and other observations” because the atmosphere has warmed at half the average rate predicted by climate models over the same period. They also note that their findings are “consistent with conclusions in McKitrick and Christy (2020),” namely that climate models have a pervasive global warming bias. In other research, Christy and mathematician Richard McNider have shown that the satellite warming rate implies the climate system can only be half as sensitive to GHGs as the average model used by the IPCC for projecting future warming.

Strong implications, indeed, but you won’t learn about it from the IPCC. That group regularly puts on a charade of pretending to review the science before issuing press releases that sound like Greta’s Twitter feed. In the real world the evidence against the alarmist predictions from overheated climate models is becoming unequivocal. One day, even the IPCC might find out."

 

Are ENSO Regime Changes Connected To Major Climate Shifts? Are We Tipping To Cooling?
Are ENSO Regime Changes Connected To Major Climate Shifts? Are We Tipping To Cooling?
By P Gosselin on 19. April 2023

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By Gabriel Oxenstierna

We’ve had a La Niña for nearly three years. But now it has officially ended, and ENSO has moved into its neutral phase, the “La Nada”.[1] The La Niña event lasted three winters in a row, something that has only occurred twice before in modern times: 1973–1976 and 1998–2001. Both of these followed in response to a very strong El Niño.

The La Niña that has now ended, on the other hand, came after the more neutral winter of 2019/20.



Figure 1. Number of months with each ENSO phase for five-year periods from 1950 – 2023

The number of months that we have had each ENSO phase in the last 74 years is shown in Figure 1. The La Niñas are more frequent than the El Niños. Interestingly, the opposite was true during the rapid warming we had from 1975 – 1999, when El Niños were more common. But then it reverts back again around 1998/99. Is there a pattern here? . . . .

 

Central Europe April Has Been Cool And Wet, Bringing Relief To Drought Stricken Regions
Central Europe April Has Been Cool And Wet, Bringing Relief To Drought Stricken Regions
By P Gosselin on 21. April 2023

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April 2023 is more than half finished and the average temperature was Germany is 6.2 degrees Celsius for the first half of April. That’s below the long-term average of 9.0 degrees Celsius.

April 2023 very cool

Hat-tip: Klimanachrichten

However, the month still has a ways to go and warmer weather may prevail. But it seems unlikely that 12.3 degrees Celsius will be reached as in 2018.

Also the most recent forecast – though calling for warm weather this weekend – shows that cold weather is once again in the pipeline for next week, with snow forecast across central and southern Germany.



More cold on the way. Image cropped at Kachelmannwetter.de

East Germany drought eases

The good news is the precipitation in the eastern part of Germany, where in some areas there has been very little rain in recent years. So far rainfall already reached pleasing levels by mid-April. This is well indicated by the fill level data from the Harz valley region dams. One of the largest dams, the Granetal dam, had reached a level of almost 95% and further precipitation is forecast. Currently it’s near 90% full.

 

Another year of cooling increasingly likely.
UAH Global Temperature Update for April, 2023: +0.18 deg. C
May 2nd, 2023
The Version 6 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for April 2023 was +0.18 deg. C departure from the 1991-2020 mean. This is down slightly from the March 2023 anomaly of +0.20 deg. C.


The linear warming trend since January, 1979 remains at +0.13 C/decade (+0.11 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.18 C/decade over global-averaged land). . . .

 

The New Pause Lengthens by Two Months To 8 Years 11 Months
Guest Blogger
We are no longer in la Niña conditions. They ended in March 2023, when the temperature of the Niño-3.4 region of the equatorial eastern Pacific rose above –0.5 K:

The New Pause has lengthened by a further two months to 8 years 11 months. The least-squares linear-regression trend on the UAH monthly satellite global-temperature dataset for the lower troposphere shows no global warming at all from June 2014 to April 2023.


As usual, the start and end dates of the New Pause are not cherry-picked. The end date is the most recent month for which data are available; the start date is the farthest back one can reach and still find a zero trend. It is what it is. . . .

 

April 2023 In Central Europe Cooler And Wetter Than Normal…Like The 1960s
By P Gosselin on 5. May 2023

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Germany April 2023 was the wettest in 15 years, 1.5°C cooler than mean


Symbol photo by P. Gosselin

According to the preliminary data gathered from the German DWD National Weather Service’s 2000 surface stations, April ,2023, was the first to be wetter than normal in 15 years. Over the past decade and a half before 2023, April had been always too dry.

According to DWD spokesman Uwe Kirsche, “For the first time in 15 years, an April in Germany was too wet again.” The rainy April helps to further relieve a drought situation that had plagued the country over the recent years.

1.5°C cooler than normal

The mean temperature in April, 2023, in Germany was 7.5 degrees Celsius. Compared to the current internationally valid 1991 to 2020 reference period, April thus ended up being 1.5 degrees Celsius too cool. . . .

 

US Has Had An “Historic Winter” As “All Western States Have Seen Record Snowfall”
By P Gosselin on 9. May 2023

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By Christian Freuer, EIKE
(Translated, edited by P. Gosselin)

The western US has had an historic winter. From record-breaking cold spells to unprecedented amounts of snow, this has been a memorable cold season – and one that runs counter to the prophecies of the AGW party.

Starting with the cold – and according to data from the warmth-addicted NOAA – the US has set 7 all-time low temperature records so far this year (through April 24) compared to just one heat record, while 321 monthly lows have fallen in April alone (also through April 24) compared to 66 heat records.

Highest April 1st snow cover recorded this year

Regrading snow, in the official books going back to 2001, the largest area ever covered with snow/ice in the western US at the beginning of April so far was 2019’s 1,030,820 sq km, but this year that figure was far exceeded, with satellite imagery showing that more than 1,149-960 sq km of the West was covered with snow and ice on 1 April.

By comparison, the average snowpack in the western US at the end of March is 242,000 square miles.

According to NSIDC data, snowpack this season was well above the April 1 average in all western states. In the table below, South Dakota, Nebraska and Arizona lead the way with 350% of the average, followed closely by Nevada:



Source: NSIDC

All western US states have seen above-average snowfall; in fact, all have set records:



Meanwhile across the pond, the official UK low of -7.4°C was recorded on April 27 in Loch Glascarnoch, Scotland. This broke the previous low of -6.1°C recorded in 1956 in Glenlivet. It’s been quiet for Britain’s climate alarmists, as record cold blanketed the country.

 

Winter Is Coming.

“ • Last Glacial Period, the most recent glacial period (115,000 to 11,700 years ago)

• Late Cenozoic Ice Age, the geologic period of the last 33.9 million years
• Little Ice Age, a period of relative cold in certain regions from roughly 1450–1480
• Pleistocene, a geologic epoch, often colloquially referred to as the "Ice Age", that includes the world's most recent repeated glaciations (2,580,000 to 11,700 years ago)
• Plio-Pleistocene, a geological pseudo-period
• Quaternary glaciation, the geologic period of the last 2.58 million years"
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_Age

"Climate change alarmists" would fear the Ice Age if they had enough sense to think it through.

 

Media Ignore Delhi’s Coldest May Since 1901
Guest Blogger
Most of the cold-weather records in Delhi have gone unreported in Western media, which are mainly interested in showcasing the city’s extreme summer temperatures. . . . .

 

You do know what the climate zealots response has been and will be don't you?

"Oh, but global warming will make weather more unpredictable. So going forward it will be both warmer and cooler. That's how we know global warming is proven."

Watch for it. Irrationality reigns supreme.

 

That’s a big climate surprise: Frost season growing longer across Australia (and for years!)

Image by Penny from Pixabay

By Jo Nova
Climate experts wrong on Australian frosts, and media say nothing
The IPCC experts were sure would be less frosts in Australia, but buried in a government funded ABC weather report was the virtually unknown admission that the frost season is actually growing across southern Australia, not shrinking. And in some places by an astonishing 40 extra days a year. What’s more, the researchers have known about this long term trend for years but didn’t think to mention it, and the ABC didn’t have a problem with that either. (It’s not like farmers need to know these things?)

When asked for an explanation for the increase in frosts, the ANU climate expert said “I think this is one of those climate surprises,” as if the IPCC unexpectedly won a game of Bingo, instead of getting a core weather trend 100% wrong.

We note the ABC feigned journalism to cover up for the Bureau of Meteorology and IPCC failures. Where were the headlines: “Climate Change causes more frosts, not less”, or “IPCC models dangerously misleading on frosts?” Did any Australian farmers and investors buy up properties and plant the wrong crops based on the global warming misinformation repeated or tacitly endorsed by the ABC, BoM and CSIRO?

Frost damage costs Australian farmers around $400 million each year. (Perhaps if we sold the ABC we could cover that). . . .

 

1. https://www.cnn.com › 2021 › 10 › 09 › weather › weather-record-cold-antarctica-climate-change › index.html
   Antarctica's last 6 months were the coldest on record | CNN
   Oct 9, 2021For the entire Antarctic continent, the winter of 2021 was the second-coldest on record, with the "temperature for June, July, and August 3.4 degrees Celsius (6.1 degrees Fahrenheit) lower than...
   https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/09/weather/weather-record-cold-antarctica-climate-change/index.html

 

UAH Global Temperature Update for May, 2023: +0.37 deg. C
June 2nd, 2023
The Version 6 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for May 2023 was +0.37 deg. C departure from the 1991-2020 mean. This is up from the April 2023 anomaly of +0.18 deg. C.


The linear warming trend since January, 1979 remains at +0.13 C/decade (+0.11 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.18 C/decade over global-averaged land).

 

Looks like 7 years of cooling




'IPCC (1990), in the business-as-usual Scenario A in its First Assessment Report, confidently predicted 0.3 [0.2, 0.5] K decade–1 global warming from 1990-2090. The warming rate since 1990 has been only 0.137 K decade–1, showing IPCC’s original range of predictions to be 220% [150%, 370%] of mere observed reality.'

They lied.



Quite a miss.

'various countries’ pledges to destroy their economies:'



'The United Kingdom now has just about the highest unit electricity prices in the world – approximately eight times those in India and China. No surprise, then, that foreign direct investment in Britain, which in Margaret Thatcher’s time exceeded all foreign investment into the entire European tyranny-by-clerk, has collapsed.'

 

Winter is coming.

The Sun in June 2023
Guest Blogger
When the PDO finally turns negative it will hyper-accelerate the solar-driven cooling evident from 2016.

". . . It follows that there is a scary conjecture from this interpretation of the data. When the PDO finally turns negative it will hyper-accelerate the solar-driven cooling evident from 2016. The warming that took all of the second half of the 20th century to achieve will be wiped out in what will feel like just an instant and we will be back to the Little Ice Age conditions of the 19th century."

 

• 
  Frost damage cripples U.S. orchards, vineyards: 'We've never seen anything like it'

 

Meanwhile, back in reality, global ocean surface temperatures the highest they've been in recorded history. And the El Nino is just getting started.

https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/

Reality isn't kind to claims of global cooling, given that reality shows the exact opposite, strong warming. Cherrypicking isolated cold snaps won't change that.

 

Greenland’s Summer Ice Melt Delayed
Guest Blogger
The consequence has been a lot of snow, delaying the beginning of the summer melt . . . .

 

The new El Nino can't move the needle.
UAH Global Temperature Update for June, 2023: +0.38 deg. C
July 5th, 2023
The Version 6 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for June 2023 was +0.38 deg. C departure from the 1991-2020 mean. This is statistically unchanged from the May 2023 anomaly of +0.37 deg. C.

 

Given that Planet Earth just experienced its warmest day in recorded history, this thread really isn't aging well. As anyone could have predicted, and as we did predict.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/05/world/hottest-day-world-climate-el-nino-intl/index.html
---
This week saw the hottest global temperature ever recorded, according to data from two climate tracking agencies that covers multiple decades.

On Monday, the average global temperature reached 17.01 degrees Celsius (62.62 Fahrenheit), the highest in the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s data, which goes back to 1979. On Tuesday, it climbed even further, reaching 17.18 degrees Celsius and global temperature remained at this record-high on Wednesday.

The previous record of 16.92 degrees Celsius was set in August 2016.

The European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service on Wednesday also tweeted that Monday’s global temperature was a record in its data set, which dates back to 1940.
---

 

Wow. All the way back to 1940.

That's absolutely prehistoric.

 

Wow. All the way back to 1940.

That's absolutely prehistoric.

 

On the contrary, the thread is doing just fine.
The new El Nino can't move the needle.
UAH Global Temperature Update for June, 2023: +0.38 deg. C
July 5th, 2023
The Version 6 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for June 2023 was +0.38 deg. C departure from the 1991-2020 mean. This is statistically unchanged from the May 2023 anomaly of +0.37 deg. C.