Has the Global Temperature Trend Turned to Cooling?

The New Pause Remains At 8 Years 10 Months
Guest Blogger
The New Pause thus remains at 8 years 10 months . . . .

 

Provided you ignore all the actual data, and instead rely entirely on the a fantasy data set.

Tell us again, why do you ignore actual surface temperatures, measured with these things called "thermometers", and instead rely entire on a fudgy model based on microwave emissions from a broad area of the mid-troposphere? Seems that, if you want to know surface temperature, it would be much more logical to directly measure temperature at the surface.

Just look at UAH lately. It's bouncing around randomly. It doesn't reflect anything about the real world, and nobody takes it seriously.

 

UAH records lower troposphere temperature, which starts at sea level. The lower troposphere captures most of the habitations of the Earth's population. Your unusual opinion about UAH is already known. NASA and NOAA seem to disagree since they fund the UAH work.

 

From 2015, but all the points in the video still stand. The satellite record is pretty bad.

 

Consilience also destroys the "it's cooling" myth. That is, the convergence of multiple lines of study on to one conclusion. Even if we weren't measuring temperatures, we would still know temperature is increasing by watching other effects.

We see sea level rise, sea ice decline, glacier retreat, changing growing seasons, changing life cycles of insects, changing migration patterns of animals ... the list goes on and on.

If climate was cooling or stable, we would not see these things. Since we do see these things, that demonstrates climate is warming.

 

The Luddite objection to satellite temperature monitoring is noted. NASA and NOAA do not share that view.
Cooling began in 2016.

Our planet’s temperature peaked in 2016 and has been in a disciplined decline since. It is in a channel 0.5°C wide with a slope of -0.03°C per annum. The atmosphere had been warming at 0.013°C per annum according to Dr Roy Spencer’s work. If the established cooling trend continues it will only take another decade to get back to the temperatures of the early 1980s. With the cooling trend firmly established, the question is: Can the proximate cause be found in the solar record?

 

Even the Hunga Tonga sub-surface ocean volcano eruption and its “unprecedented” production of extra stratospheric water vapor can't push temperature past the 2016 high.
UAH Global Temperature Update for July, 2023: +0.64 deg. C
August 2nd, 2023
New Record High Temperatures and a Weird Month

July 2023 was an unusual month, with sudden warmth and a few record or near-record high temperatures.

Since the satellite record began in 1979, July 2023 was:

• warmest July on record (global average)
• warmest absolute temperature (since July is climatologically the warmest month)
• tied with March 2016 for the 2nd warmest monthly anomaly (departure from normal for any month)
• warmest Southern Hemisphere land anomaly
• warmest July for tropical land (by a wide margin, +1.03 deg. C vs. +0.44 deg. C in 2017)

These results suggest something peculiar is going on. It’s too early for the developing El Nino in the Pacific to have much effect on the tropospheric temperature record. The Hunga Tonga sub-surface ocean volcano eruption and its “unprecedented” production of extra stratospheric water vapor could be to blame. There might be other record high temperatures regionally in the satellite data, but I don’t have time right now to investigate that.

Now, back to our regularly scheduled programming…

The Version 6 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for July 2023 was +0.64 deg. C departure from the 1991-2020 mean. This is well above the June 2023 anomaly of +0.38 deg. C.




The linear warming trend since January, 1979 now stands at +0.14 C/decade (+0.12 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.18 C/decade over global-averaged land).

 

The data are destroying the global warming narrative.
5 New Studies Indicate There Has Been No Net Warming Since The 1700s
By Kenneth Richard on 10. August 2023

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Proxy temperature records calibrated to closely align with current instrumental temperatures undermine the current “global boiling” narrative when extended to the 18th century.
Per a new study, maximum latewood density (MXD) tree-ring data have been observed to strongly correlate (r=0.77) with the modern (1959-2016) maximum (July-Aug.) instrumental temperature record (Li et al., 2023). In other words, MXD series from centuries-old trees can reliably record the warmest temperatures of the year when investigating the correspondence to measured thermometer temperatures.

So it may be surprising to learn that when assessing the 1720-2018 temperatures by extending MXD data over the last 3 centuries, a non-warming (cooling) trend since 1900 emerges in the data from northwestern China, including a ~1°C warmer 1920s-’30s.

The authors point out that these trends (“none of these MXD series showed a warming trend in the last century”) have been observed in several other regions of the world, including eastern Asia, southern Europe, and northwestern Africa.



Image Source: Li et al., 2023
Both the instrumental (1900-2015) and proxy (1765-2002) temperature records closely agree that the Tierra del Fuego forested region – located at the southernmost tip of South America – has been cooling (net) since 1900 (instrumentals and proxies) and 1765 (proxies), respectively (Matskovsky et al., 2023).



Image Source: Matskovsky et al., 2023
In 2007 the IPCC relied upon a WWF claim that said, due to warming, the Himalayan glaciers would very likely melt or “disappear” by 2035 (or sooner).

But a new study reconstructing 1733-2020 Nepal-Himalaya temperatures indicates there has been no net warming here in 288 years.



Image Source: Gaire et al., 2023
Another new study indicates the southeastern Tibetan Plateau was as-warm or warmer than recent decades in the 1870s and 1930s-’40s. Also, the warming and cooling oscillations over the last few hundred years correlate well with the naturally-varying AMO.



Image Source: Li and Li, 2023
Finally, a 1733-2010 minimum temperature reconstruction for south-central China reveals an oscillating trajectory, with no net warming throughout the nearly three centuries (Li et al., 2023). A recent warming trend is evident in the data, but only if the record begins in 1960, a particularly cold period of years.



Image Source: Li et al., 2023

 

@Jack Hays ..... There you go, using all those fancy facts, and evidence and such.... LOL The rapid are faithful. The "believe" because it's what their great leader told them to think. It's why Obama can flaunt climate change by having not one, but two sea side mansions.... Because, you know, the seas are going to wipe out their investments.... LOL..

 

Greenland’s 2022-’23 Ice Coverage Well Above 1981-2010 Average Despite ‘Global Boiling’ Rhetoric
By Kenneth Richard on 31. August 2023

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Since the early 2000s there has been no net change in the Greenland ice sheet mean annual surface temperature, as well as no net change in melt extent percentage.
Greenland’s ice coverage was, for most of this year (September 1, 2022 to August 31, 2023), observed to be significantly above the long-term (1981-2010) climate average. The Greenland ice sheet didn’t even cooperate with the narrative during the “global boiling” melt months of July and August.



Image Source: PolarPortal
Greenland has been defying the narrative for decades now. After a brief, sharp warming from 1994 to the early 2000s, the mean annual land surface temperatures (LST) have been trendless since about 2003. Since 2012, Greenland has been cooling (Fang et al., 2023). Compare the colorized Greenland temperature trends lineup for 2007-2012 to the 2013-2020 period (bottom).



Image Source: Fang et al., 2023
A trendless temperature record also manifests as non-significant change in melt extent as a percentage of surface area as well as the the mass balance for the whole ice sheet, especially from about 2005 onwards.



Image Source: Fang et al., 2023
Other scientists have also reported Greenland warming “is not evident” (Matsumura et al., 2022) in recent decades. Instead, temperature stations document net cooling trends from 2001-2019 (Hanna et al., 2021).



Image Source: Matsumura et al., 2022

Image Source: Hanna et al., 2021

 

Still can't quite get to the 2016 high point.
UAH Global Temperature Update for August, 2023: +0.69 deg. C
September 4th, 2023
The Version 6 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for August 2023 was +0.69 deg. C departure from the 1991-2020 mean. This is a little above the July 2023 anomaly of +0.64 deg. C.


The linear warming trend since January, 1979 now stands at +0.14 C/decade (+0.12 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.19 C/decade over global-averaged land).

 

Even a strong El Nino was not enough to push summer 2023 US temperature into record territory. Perhaps because the underlying trend is cooling?
L A Times Article Falsely Asserts U.S. Had “Record” High Summer Temperatures in 2023
Guest Blogger
…the reality of the year 2023 summer temperatures in the U.S. and other global locations are, in fact, disputed by NOAA’s measured data.

". . . Despite all the climate alarmist politically driven ignorance-based hype about “record” year summer 2023 temperatures the reality of the year 2023 summer temperatures in the U.S. and other global locations are, in fact, disputed by NOAA’s measured data.

NOAA’s year 2023 U.S. temperature data records covering the NOAA defined 3-month summer June through August period actually shows that U.S. 2023 summer temperatures were far below “record” summer maximum temperature levels regardless of whether one is looking at NOAA’s national, regional, state, county or city summer temperature data.

Looking first at NOAA’s National Contiguous U.S. Maximum Temperature for year 2023 (shown below) we see a maximum temperature of 85.72 F which represents the 109th highest maximum summer temperature of the 129 maximum summer temperatures identified. There are 20 years in which the Contiguous U.S. Maximum Temperature was higher than in 2023 with the highest ever being in 1936 at 87.92 F. . . ."

 

New Study: ‘Atmospheric CO2 Is Not The Cause Of Climate Change’ … The Next Glaciation Has Begun
By Kenneth Richard on 28. September 2023

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CO2 “only affects a small range of long-wave re-radiation from the surface of the Earth,” and there “seems to be no connection between carbon dioxide and the temperature of the Earth.” − Harris, 2023
New research published in the MDPI journal atmosphere by Dr. Stuart A. Harris asserts past and modern climate changes are natural and not driven by variations in atmospheric CO2 concentrations.

Some key points from the paper include:

• Past and modern climate change is driven by solar cycle (Milankovitch) variations and their affect on ocean circulation and heat transport.

• Throughout the last hundreds of thousands of years, temperature changes precede the lagging changes in CO2.

• The UN IPCC position that atmospheric CO2 is the cause of the warming since the onset of the Industrial Revolution is only an assumption that is “not consistent with studies involving changes in temperature in rural areas of the northern [NH] hemisphere.”

• The natural 23 thousand year (23 ka) Milankovitch cycle has begun to reduce insolation in the NH “starting in 2020,” and this “heralds the start of the next glaciation.”

• CO2 is essential for life on Earth (photosynthesis), and a reduction in CO2 would be harmful to the biosphere. On the other hand, there “seems to be no connection between carbon dioxide and the temperature of the Earth.”



Image Source: Harris, 2023

 

The connection is rather that temperature affects CO2 concentration much more than CO2 concentration affects temperature.

 

Finally over the top.
With the approaching El Nino superimposed upon a long-term warming trend, many high temperature records were established in September, 2023.

(Now updated with the usual tabular values).


The Version 6 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for September, 2023 was +0.90 deg. C departure from the 1991-2020 mean. This is above the August 2023 anomaly of +0.70 deg. C, and establishes a new monthly high temperature record since satellite temperature monitoring began in December, 1978.


The linear warming trend since January, 1979 still stands at +0.14 C/decade (+0.12 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.19 C/decade over global-averaged land).

Regional High Temperature Records for September, 2023

From our global gridpoint dataset generated every month, there are 27 regional averages we routinely monitor. So many of these regions saw record high temperature anomaly values (departures from seasonal norms) in September, 2023 that it’s easier to just list all of the regions and show how September ranked out of the 538 month satellite record:

Globe: #1

Global land: #1

Global ocean: #1

N. Hemisphere: #2

N. Hemisphere land: #1

N. Hemisphere ocean: #4

S. Hemisphere: #1

S. Hemisphere land: #1

S. Hemisphere ocean: #1

Tropics: #6

Tropical land: #2

Tropical ocean: #8

N. Extratropics: #2

N. Extratropical land: #1

N. Extratropical ocean: #4

S. Extratropics: #1

S. Extratropical land: #1

S. Extratropical ocean: #1

Arctic: #11

Arctic land: 7th

Arctic ocean: 65th

Antarctic: 15th

Antarctic land: 26th

Antarctic ocean: 14th

USA48: 144th

USA49: 148th

Australia: 12th

 

Climate Models Wrong On East Pacific… “We Don’t Know Why This Cooling Is Happening”
By P Gosselin on 3. October 2023

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German online agriculture information site agrarheute.com here asks whether the climate models wrong since the East “East Pacific has been cooling down more and more over the past 30 years” and this “contrary to all predictions”.

Modern agriculture knows that oceanic cycles have significant consequences for global agriculture.



Corn struggles amid Europe’s 2022 drought. East Pacific cooling has impacts on agriculture around the world. Photo: NoTricksZone.

No explanation for cooling

“Why does this part of the eastern Pacific contradict climate models, scientists ask, and they can’t find a simple explanation,” reports agriheute.com. The cooling of the East Pacific has defied the forecasts made by climate models, which predicted a warming due to “greenhouse gas” emissions.

The region of cooling is the ocean area that “stretches west of Ecuador” and “could reduce greenhouse gas warming by 30 percent”. The false prediction by climate models risk misleading the agriculture industry, as it is known that ocean temperatures impact growing conditions around the world.

Major impacts around the world

“The steady cooling also has global implications. The future of the cold region could determine, among other things, whether California is hit by a permanent drought or Australia faces increasingly severe wildfires,” agrarheute.com adds. “It affects the intensity of the monsoon season in India and the likelihood of droughts and famines in the Horn of Africa. It could even change the scale of climate change worldwide by altering the sensitivity of Earth’s atmosphere to rising greenhouse gas emissions.”

Relying on faulty climate models could put farmers totally on the wrong track.

Lots of unknowns

“The problem is that if we don’t know why this cooling is happening, we don’t know when it will stop or if it will suddenly turn into warming,” said Pedro DiNezio of the University of Colorado at Boulder.

If natural phenomena are causing large oceanic regions to cool, then it is not a stretch of the imagination to think that natural factors are likely causing other regions to warm. It’s the cycles, stupid!

 

Applying Scale and Context to 2023’s “Record” High Temperatures
David Middleton
Guest “geological scale and context” by David Middleton, 2023 has been a hot year… We have the makings of a super-El Niño and an unprecedented injection of water vapor into…

 

A rational person, if they want to know temperature, then they'll look at temperature at the surface, as measured by these amazing devices called "thermometers".

A non-serious person will throw out that best data, and instead substitute in a satellite model ... emphasis on the word "model" ... that uses microwave emissions from across the whole troposphere, along with a whole lot of fudge factors.

That's what you're doing.

Also, this.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/10/03/september-global-temperature-record-climate/

This is where I jump in with "We told you so". We told you that with the first El Nino, global high temperature records would be shattered. We were absolutely correct with that prediction. That's not surprising, given that we use the actual data and actual physics, instead of fudgy models.

The Middleton piece? It didn't actually say anything. It was a hysterical diversion from how Middleton and the deniers have been proven to be as wrong as it's possible for a human to be.

 

LOL, another counterpoint free post you made.

You apparently didn't realize Jack posted the UAH report showing a large warming spike of last month that shows new records made which he and myself didn't dispute at all.

The problem YOU have is the never-ending failure show that a trace gas with a trace warm forcing at the 435 ppm level is producing this warming.

Reality,

1) No Troposphere "hot spot" exist.

2) No Positive Feedback Loop exist.

Both are REQUIRED to help make the AGW conjecture viable and credible, it has neither after 30 years of waiting for it to show up.

This warming is mostly natural all along.

 

Interesting note on UAH graph - notice the rapid decline after every other "super spike"? Also it would appear that after every other extreme spike anomalies drop off rapidly, and that this horrific "hottest ever" data point is a mere .2C different from the last "honest ever" reading.
The chart is powerful data if one gets beyond the "hottest ever" hoopla.

 

So that's your argument? Because UAH sucked less in the last month, that means it doesn't suck?

No, that's not how logic works in this universe.

And there's the inevitable Gish Gallop of fakery and fabrications. If deniers had one good argument, they wouldn't need an avalanche of crap.

 

Mamooth writes:

No, it means that UAH shows a large temperature increase that is all I mean it was never posted as an argument which a caveman would have understood immediately but you...... Hmmmm.....

This look like an avalanche of disjointed words that ran out of gas because it didn't say anything relevant to what I wrote,

"The problem YOU have is the never-ending failure show that a trace gas with a trace warm forcing at the 435 ppm level is producing this warming.

Reality,

1) No Troposphere "hot spot" exist.

2) No Positive Feedback Loop exist.

Both are REQUIRED to help make the AGW conjecture viable and credible, it has neither after 30 years of waiting for it to show up.

This warming is mostly natural all along."

YOU never have addressed it which is because you KNOW you can't thus your torrent of empty words is all you can do instead you are not fooling anyone with your childish spittle filled empty replies that doesn't meet the minimum of a point-counterpoint argument paradigm.

AGW conjecture is long dead and even YOU know it since you don't defend it at all.

 

The ensuing decline will be as steep as the rise.

 

Unless the sun keeps going nuts.

 

No. His argument is that UAH's agreement that September was the hottest month in the satellite era proves your reflexive rejection and derogation of it is pure, logically and scientifically unfounded bigotry.

Because you made it up.

Projection.