Here is my prediction for November.

Still early. But I make this prediction based solely on what we know in January 2024.

This is pure speculation!

Consider this:

1-Trump is at the highest point of this popularity within the last year or so. While Biden is pretty much at his lowest point. There is nowhere for Trump to go but down, and nowhere for Biden to go but up.

2- Biden has barely started his campaign. Trump is in full campaign mode.

3- Despite the two points above, Trump and Biden are statistically tied in voter intention.

4- Trump's poor popularity is due to many factors: his lack of accomplishments during his presidency, his attacks on democracy, his legal troubles, ... These can ONLY get worse

5- Biden's poor popularity is basically due to ONE factor: inflation. A President doesn't have much influence on inflation. But people don't know this. The FED has more of a say in that. So this can ONLY get better. If inflation is under control by October (and it looks like the Fed's goal is to have it under control by the middle of the year) you can be sure you'll watch Biden's numbers soar.

6- Accusations against Trump are in the courts. Accusations against Biden are... nowhere at this point. Just some vague insinuation that maybe he had to do something with his Son's businesses (whatever that was). But nothing of substance at this point. Not even an accusation. Whereas Trump will have to face courts. Maybe some even on live TV. We ALL know (including MAGAs) that he's guilty. So he's not likely to do well in those. Whereas, the more time passes with Republicans not being able to pinpoint ANYTHING on Biden, the more it will look like it's just political circus.

7- Don't forget the HUGE advantage that comes with being the sitting President. And Joe's numbers in everything EXCEPT inflation are immensely positive. Especially when compared to Trump's. Job creation, low unemployment, high wages, stock markets, our leadership in the international arena, .. Joe LOOKS Presidential. While Trump still doesn't. Besides the fact that when he WAS the sitting President, he lost...

8- One more thing: immigration. Immigration is not a big problem for Democrats. It is for Republicans and for some independents. However, If Biden manages to convey the fact that he proposed a plan and that Republicans voted against it BECAUSE (by their own admission) it would make Biden look good (i.e., it wouid actually WORK), that will be an asset. What is Trump's alternative? The wall? That has become a joke, and is likely to be mocked. They may try the 2020 tactic of actually ORGANIZING immigrant caravans. It didn't work then so I don't think it will work this time. Biden will just need to be prepared for the ruse.

Polls don't tell us who is going to win the elections. But they are a good indicator of tendencies. Right now polls show a statistical tie. Given all of the above, that's a GREAT place for Biden to be at this point.

A tie when Biden hasn't started his campaign, while Trump's is in full spin. When Trump's popularity is at the highest peek, and Biden's is at a lowest low. Trump's legal troubles are only starting to unravel, and accusations against Biden have made NO progress.

I think the most significant factor is Inflation. If inflation is still a problem, Biden will win by a small margin. If it's under control, it will not be an issue and Biden will win in a landslide.

 

Just thought I'd throw in a factoid coming out of IO. 31% of caucus goers say a Trump conviction would make him unqualified to be prez. Nothing better explains Don's endless delaying tactics.

 

Sometimes we tend to believe that all Republicans are MAGAs. But they aren't. At least half of them are just people who are used to voting for Republicans. The prospect of voting for a convicted felon is likely to turn many of them away. This is why, if we were to believe the polls, Biden is PERFECTLY positioned to win in a landslide. But, of course, I wouldn't completely rely on polls.

 

Trump lost to Biden in 2020. Even if the same number of people vote for him in 2024, and the same number of people vote for Biden in 2024, the result would be the same. Are we thinking that Trump support has grown over the past four years? Sure, the following will remain with him. But as @Golem pointed out, some of those folks who voted for him in 2016 and 2020 have been revolted by Trump's behavior and will surely turn away from supporting him again.

 

Yeah let's see how many of those were crossover independent and democrat voters. From the reporting I saw, there were so many they ran out of documentation for them to switch their party.

And Trump still stomped that ass.

 

lol keep thinking that. Pretty sure yall said the same thing about him being charged right?

 

You missed something. Even though people hate acknowledging they were wrong, the privacy of a vote, assuming it's legit, protects their choices.
A new candidate has the benefit of assumptions, a past one the benefit of track record. Now- they have experienced Biden's "performance". The empty sack of promises. Nothing's going to compensate for that.

Trump has never varied from the position of America First. IF you are an American, in mind and not just legally- that makes a hell of a lot of sense.

Biden has never said this outright that I know of, but everything he does says- America Last. It wouldn't be popular to say it, but that doesn't keep him from doing it.

You think people aren't noticing that? How many voters of any party are going to vote for "America Last"?

Hundreds of billions of taxpayers dollars are being spent to accomodate people who are not Americans- and not legally here at all.
Biden is making America the world's welfare agency, and home for international squatters from everywhere.

America First- OR, America Last. That's what's left when you distill all the BS and propaganda out of the coming election.

 

Reporting from where? Do you have a link or an attribution? You're saying D's and I's registered as R's in IO so they could skew the results but Trump still won? Prove it.

 

My predictions are Trump kills it and then BAM, a 3am surprise, 100Million votes pop up for Joe out of the blue.

 

Consider this, no matter how it fleshes out, the politicians, left and right still win and WE Americans STILL LOSE..

 

Trump is being charged. We were right!

 

Both candidates have that "disadvantage" If Biden's accomplishments vs Trump's were a deciding factor, we'd be thinking about a 50-state sweep. However, even though that may be a factor in people's mind. I think as I said, that the one issue that favors Trump a bit right now is inflation. If inflation is what it is today, the race becomes more competitive. If it's under control... outlook is good for a very hefty Biden victory.

I don't think many undecided voters will think that Biden believes America is Second. So that's moot. Biden might, if he wanted, effectively bring up some of Trump's quotes about Russia, China, N. Korea... when he was President that MIGHT bring this to question. But I don't think it will have a huge impact. A small one, yes...

That's right. NO President in history who believes it has actually HAD to say it. It's a given. W. Wilson said it, but it was specifically to point out his opposition to war. Other than that, the KKK used it as part of their xenophobic campaign in the early 20th century. As well as other white supremacist and and anti-semitic fascist movements and authors. Today the idea is that if you HAVE to say it, it means either you want to revive early 20th century fascism, or you believe somebody has doubts. And there is, in the case of Trump, some room to doubt.

I'm 100% SURE they're not. Not anybody who is not already a total MAGA.

 

Nobody would have ever guessed that you of all people would predict a Biden win (sarcasm). This is ground breaking stuff you are revealing here.

 

I don't know what you're talking about. I'm doing fine. Even under Trump I was doing well. Not as good as now but... I was ok. Maybe you need to modify your definition of "lose". I have always suspected that folks on the right feel that they lose if somebody else does well. And I have seen in the media they consume promote this point of view.

Maybe that's why you think you're losing.

 

..

 

I'd never ask you to do my research. And I don't know anybody, of any party, who doesn't see Joe putting America last.

 

You are so funny. Imagine that, your prediction matches your bias. If you would have asked me for my prediction of your feelings about the race I would have predicted that you would predict Trump would lose.

 

I agree that people will vote for a second bite of a sh!t sandwich.

 

Yeah, I doubt it.
I can't stand Trump. In fact, it is Trump that caused me to stop being a Republican. But Biden has been so disastrous for this country, that I would rather Trump win than Biden get another term. And I think most people feel that way.
The best case solution would be for an independent to win, and both Trump and Biden and their worthless parties to be driven from power, but with the absurd polarity we have in this country, that has only a slim chance of happening.
The democrat party has shot themselves in the foot with these endless legal charges. We all know EVERY politician is corrupt as ****. Trying to use the law as weapon is just going to convince many Americans that the law is being used as a weapon that only works for one side, which will only lead to more polarity. And it has only made Trump more popular. Way to go, Democrats.

Right now, unity and healing is far more important than legality or partisan advantage. Trump sure as hell will not heal the country, but Democrats have almost guaranteed his victory through pointless legal battles and by choosing the worst possible choice as president. Now we will have to go through another 4 year term with Trump's absurdity, which will amazingly be preferable to another 4 years with Biden.

I don't no how Democrats managed to put themselves in this position. Astounding.

 

Just remember, people- the real choice in the coming election is- America First, or America Last.

Ask yourself how we got somewhere around 4 million illegal aliens, also known as "squatters" spread around America, getting billions of your tax dollars and various forms of aid.
In three years.... Joe did that.

 

I agree with most of this. Now Trump has been between 55-60% unfavorable among all Americans since he first announced his run for the presidency back in late 2015. He’s still somewhere between those numbers. I don’t think what Trump has done or not done during his presidency or in the aftermath of such has budge those dislike numbers.


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/trump_favorableunfavorable-5493.html


I base the dislike or unfavorable view of Trump more on his obnoxious, uncouth, rude persona. His childish antic like name calling and throwing temper tantrums along with his 3rd grade schoolyard bullying tactic. It’s the man himself that is disliked, his very unpresidential behavior.


As for Biden, I think it’s of his job performance or the perception of Americans that Biden has done a poor job as president. Biden’s likability as a person is way higher than Trump’s. Then there the real worry about Biden’s age, survivability for another 4 years along with his mental acumen. Biden looks old and frail. Another aspect of Biden is many who voted for him in 2020 viewed Biden as only a transitional president. A way to get rid of Trump. Someone between Trump and whoever came next. Not someone who would run for reelection. This was reflected in the fact Biden won the popular vote by 7 plus million votes, but lost 13 house seats. No coat tails, a lot of folks voted for Biden, then republican down ballot.


Today, Biden has lost the support of independents, a group of voter Biden won 54-41 over Trump in 2020. That 13-point margin Biden won independents by was worth around 6 million votes. Today, on average, Trump is winning independents 40-37 over Biden with the rest in the vote third party, will not vote if the rematch occurs or in the undecided columns. You also have 56% of all Americans who do not want Biden to run again, question 14. 53% don’t want Trump to run again either, question 15.


https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_HvTrDQB.pdf


To win, Biden will have to regain the support of independents as the two major party’s bases are relatively even. Yes, inflation is a big key. Also needed is for Biden to alleviate the age factor some, alleviate some of that fear of survivability. I’d say if Trump is in the courtroom as the defendant prior to the election that will help Biden regain independents although they don’t want him reelected. They want someone else. But overall, I’m with you with what you said. I think Biden will eventually win, but he’ll start his second term as the most unpopular second term president that has won reelection as most Americans don’t want him as president. But he’s better than Trump, the lesser of two evils or the least worse candidate. The candidate that voters wanted to lose the least, not win, but lose the least.

 

LOL, looks like you decided on your final conclusion and then wrote this to support it. You really think being the sitting President is a HUGE advantage when prices have inflated over 15% during his term and people are struggling month to month to afford to live?

Remind me again who was the sitting President in 2020. Or the proxy for the sitting President in 2016; remember all the "Obama's third term" slogans flying around. Oh, and IMMIGRATION is a huge problem for Dems. Several "sanctuary cities" which are also Dem strongholds are screaming like mad over the tidal waves of illegals being sent to them.

Of course the Biden side has far more experience corrupting elections than the GOP; so there's that.

 

Democrats believe deeply in their ability to cheat and win. It's part of their catechism....

 

The bipartisan menu options: Same sandwich with peanut butter, or with Jelly -- RP vs DP.

 

The DP learned, the hard way, by losing elections during Reconstruction, that it could not survive as a viable political party without disenfranchising American voters and rigging elections.
The RP lacked the courage to stop them. Alas.

“Thus Owen's proposition was ordered sent to Congress and had a good chance of being adopted; but Fessenden, the chairman, was sick with varioloid and it was decided to delay final report until he was better. [Thaddeus] Stevens told Owens the sequel:

"Our action on your amendment [said Stevens] had, it seems, gotten noised abroad. In the course of last week the members from New York, from Illinois, and from your state too, Owen—from Indiana— held, each separately, a caucus to consider whether equality of suffrage, present or prospective, ought to form a part of the Republican program for the coming canvass.

"They were afraid, so some of them told us, that if there was a '****** in the wood-pile' at all (that was the phrase), it would be used against them as an electioneering handle; and some of them—hang their cowardice!—might lose their elections. By inconsiderable majorities each of these caucuses decided that Negro suffrage in any shape, ought to be excluded from the platform; and they communicated these decisions to us.
"Our committee hadn't backbone enough to maintain its ground. Yesterday, the vote on your plan was reconsidered, your amendment was laid on the table, and in the course of the next three hours we contrived to patch together—well, what you've read this morning."
BLACK RECONSTRUCTION IN AMERICA 1860- 1880, W.E.B. Dubois, introduction by David Levering Lewis, VIII. TRANSUBSTANTIATION OF A POOR WHITE, C1, the Free Press new York 1998.