Here is my prediction for November.

Biden may be able to engineer a victory over Russian aggression and become one of the greatest US Presidents.
IMO, that should be more than enough to convince most voters to grant him another term. But "justice" and politics are frequently incompatible.

 

My prediction: Trump isn't going to be President again, regardless of what happens in the "elections."

 

Here is my prediction for November.

My prediction is that either Michelle Obama or Gavin Newsom will lose to Trump.

 

And what's your prize, more of same game for another four years.. More homeless, more illegal migration, corporation's continue step on the people.. Most of all the politicians get four more years of money grabbing compliments of their blind loyalist..

How that go again, I'm doing good

 

Biden is unpopular for many reasons, not just inflation.

#1. The Israel/Gaza war.

#2. Biden's age and appearance of mental/neurological decline.

#3. Hunter Biden indictment.

#4. Biden has done nothing to deal with the migrant issue.

 

With the info we have today, it’s a 50-50 proposition on who wins. But as I’m fond of saying, we have a Pacific Ocean worth of water to flow under the election bridge. Biden has been underwater in his job approval since August of 2021. That I don’t see changing. See graph under the first set of polls.


https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/joe-biden/approval-rating


Any sitting president running for reelection with under a 50% job approval has lost. Ford was at 45% job approval and lost to Jimmy Carter in 1976. Carter was at 31% and lost to Reagan in a landslide in 1980. G.H.W. Bush was at 43% in 1992 and lost to Bill Clinton. Last, but not least, Trump was at 43% and lost to Joe Biden in 2020. Biden is currently at 39%, which doesn’t look good. But his opponent, Trump is just as disliked and unwanted as Biden is. Which makes 2024 unique with no historical precedence. I’d say Trump and Biden need each other. That almost any other republican other than Trump would trounce Biden with same being true about almost any other democrat other than Biden trouncing Trump.


What we have today is around 40% of all Americans wanting Biden, another 40% wanting Trump with the remaining 20% wanting neither. Lots of time for this to change, one question is, will it? Another question is, who will the remaining 20%, which major party candidate will they come down on? That is if they don’t vote third party or not vote at all due them not liking their choices.

 

And you expected it to match yours?

The question is not whose bias it matches. The question is, as in EVERTHING you read in this forum, if it's wrong. Your post tells me you don't think that it is wrong.

 

Feel free to open a thread to explain what it is that you don't like about Biden (too many jobs created?, the infrastructure?, recovering our position as world leaders?, support for education?...) and what you DO like about Trump (tax cuts for the rich?.... I guess that the ONLY thing he did, so that's gotta be it)

Oh... now I get it. You believe politicians shouldn't be held accountable for their crimes.

I don't quite agree with that. But if it were true, I know who we should blame: those who think that holding them responsible for their acts are "shooting themselves in the foot"

 

Trump has never had strong voter support in general and is up against an incumbent. But at the same time, America's enemies are out to harm Biden and boost Trump by various means, including stirring up violence and making it seem like the world is going to hell in a hand basket under Biden's watch, thereby also creating economic issues - most notably renewed inflationary pressures. This shows a renewed effort to repeat what worked in 2016 against Hillary Clinton, which was to make her so unpopular and hated and reviled among American voters that they either stayed home, held their nose and went for Trump, or cast some kind of protest vote, say for a third party or independent candidate.

I won't attempt to predict November because I don't know how these efforts are going to fare, nor do I know what other surprises to expect over the coming months. I feel that Trump being convicted in at least one of his trials will put another dent in his already tiny small support, however, as that will help dispel the notion that he is being abused by a politicized justice system. We know from recent polling that a significant number of registered Republicans are paying attention to that and have said that they will not support Trump in that case.

 

Biden has not been disastrous for the country in any way. He is simply being blamed for problems that are not of his making, and those problems are also being grossly exaggerated. It's kind of amazing to me how people never wake up to how they are being manipulated. I imagine it's because their pride won't allow them to admit that they've been duped. No one likes to feel stupid, so they would prefer to keep up the fantasy instead.

 

Thanks for your honest response. Let me focus on one point. Just out of curiosity...

I mentioned inflation. As I said, there is very little a President can do about that. The Fed can do much more about it. And they have signaled that this will not be an issue after about the middle of the year. Is there anything OTHER than inflation that motivates this perception in your opinion?

 

Yet you'll be the first to blame everything that happens during a Republican presidency on that president. Give me a break. If it happens on a president's watch, he takes the blame. Failure of leadership.

 

It's not. That's already addressed in the post you quoted. As a matter of fact, it's pretty much the centerpiece of the whole post. So obviously you didn't read it.

 

Nope, I don't operate that way. As an independent, I am impartial and always endeavor to stick to the facts. It's a big forum and you've probably missed them, but I have posted more than once to acknowledge when Trump has done something right and when Biden has done something wrong.

You are very biased and I am not, and you want to assume that I am like you in order to feel more confident in your own position.

 

Our prize is a criminal in prison for the rest of his life.

 

I too am an independent, and blame both for what they do wrong. If I am biased, it is against both parties and the two party system. I don't want either one of those clowns running this country.

 

VERY few voters are going to decide their vote based on the Israel/Gaza war. And most who are will be happy with his performance. And those who aren't will not vote for Trump anyway. So it will be pretty much irrelevant in the elections.

That's a right-wing talking point. Biden has been famous for his gafes since he first ran for Senate. It has NEVER cost him a single vote. Not for the Senate, not for the Presidency. NOTHING has changed regarding his mental state.

Yeah... and he's not good looking and probably farts a lot. But I'm talking about unpopularity that will move the needle in the elections.

I mentioned the immigrant issue in the OP. They might try to use it against him like they did in 2020. It didn't work then either.

 

One is a clown, the other is a long-time senator turned president who has done a decent job under some very challenging conditions.

 

Look out, now your bias is showing. they're both clowns. Biden has been a clown since the racist policies he backed decades ago.

 

Hell of a long step from charged to convicted to affirmed on appeal. And most of these charges require one to think like a leftist to even think them legitimate.

 

Why are you so fixated on bias? Who cares if he's biased? The question is: is he WRONG? You can be biased and RIGHT. And if you can't argue that he isn't, that is an endorsement of his position.

 

Who is also a clown and on whose watch the whole damn world is on fire and people are having to choose between buying food and driving to work and you think that is a decent job???

 

Afghanistan, the Ukraine, and Israel are three things I can name within 3 seconds that would make me never consider him for president again. There are many more.

 

There's that biased hyperbole and exaggeration again. Whatever Biden might have done decades ago has no bearing on how he governs now. Trump actually is a clown. All he's lacking in the makeup.

Biden is a career politician, and of course it can be debated how good or bad he is at the job. But to do that, you have to set aside personal bias and put the work in to understand and interpret the facts available.

 

I do not deny that Trump is a clown, but in my opinion, and apparently not yours, he is a disaster, especially when it comes to foreign policy. If you like his decisions, cool, that's your opinion. I think they have been terrible, and I will never vote for him. Neither will I vote for Trump.