Initial unemployment claims plunge 27,000 to below 400,000, lowest level since April

There were 391,000 initial unemployment claims filed in the week ended Sept. 24, the Labor Department said Thursday, down 37,000 from the prior week's

The drop was much better than expected, as economists forecast initial claims to fall to 419,000, according to Briefing.com.

http://money.cnn.com/2011/09/29/news/economy/unemployment_benefits/?cnn=yes

This marks the second week claims have fallen.

Some of our right wing members have pointed to increases after the Republican Tea Party debt ceiling fiasco and the shattered confidence level that followed as evidence of the ineffectiveness of Obama's economic policies. Following that theory, these recent drops are a vindication.

That large of a drop may be a statistical anomaly, we'll see in coming weeks. But it's a good sign to those not invested in failure for political reasons.

 

The unemployment costs from the crisis created through the abuse of free market economics (i.e. neo-liberalism that allowed the financial class to run amok) are immense. The real question is 'can we recover?'. Referring to the overall unemployment rates, for example, ignores the long term destruction of human capital

 

but QE has ended......if there is no more QE the unemployment number should increase again unless new stimulus ( QE ) is announced

The air in the tire scenerio remember?

 

So why have IU claims dropped for two weeks to their lowest level in 6 months?

 

remember that employment is an economic laggar...so it could be that these are the last of the bunch created by QE 2.....the markets on the other hand are economic leading indicators or also called forward looking....so the markets are telling us a recession is near ( rising bonds and falling equities) the only thing missing is a yield inversion!

 

Its more complex than that, given hysteresis effects can lead to multiple equilibria problems

 

What on earth are you talking about?

 

The destruction of human capital through economic shocks such that the economy can become stuck in an inferior employment equilibrium

 

I know you don't agree, but you can blame the fed for most of that!

 

Nope. I can blame the innate nature of capitalism and the folly encouraged by cretinous free market economics

 

What do you mean? You know my views on parasitic capitalism but if you compare US living standards with those in non-capitalist countries, there is evidence of some benefit and mass production of high quality low cost items accessible to the non rich can be good for everyone even if it comes from outsourced labour...

 

huh? Is this english class LOL?

 

My comment was rather specific: it referred to the costs created through economic shocks (which are accentuated through 'free market economics') and the negative effect that has on unemployment trends

 

The labor force is finite, therefore, the rate at which it sheds jobs must eventually decrease.

 

I know you are incapable of this, but do explain how central banking and housing subsidies are consistent with free-market economics.

 

You figure that's the reason eh? We've about run out of people who can lose jobs?

 

Good news, but the weekly claims number is highly variable, *and* only half the picture (the other half being new jobs created). I need to see a sustained trend before I start getting excited.

Ethereal, the labor force may be finite, but there's no reason to think we're near any theoretical bottom. Unemployment has been *far* higher than the current 9% before. So I doubt the explanation for declining claims is that there's simply aren't any more jobs that can be cut.

I always try to keep in mind that employment tends to lag the economy both on the way down (employers are reluctant to fire) and on the way up (employers, having fired, are reluctant to hire). Which is why opposition parties like to point to employment figures. Yes, they represent actual pain among workers; but that number is also usually the last to recover. So it can be used as a cudgel even after the economy has started to grow again.

The economy has been growing, albeit slowly, for a while now. So I would expect new claims to start to decline at some point, and then see hiring start to pick up, and the combination to start bringing down unemployment.

I hope that's what we're seeing here, and the last year has simply been a plateau driven by a combination of toxic politics and worldwide financial troubles.

 

It seems more plausible than the alternative, which is that the economy is starting to recover.

Of course we haven't run out. Who said that? I'm merely suggesting that the rate at we lose jobs cannot remain relatively high forever; there has to be a decline eventually; perhaps that is why unemployment claims are starting to decrease.

 

Poor Ethereal.

I do hope this is the turning point in the Bush Recession and that the lagging employment figures finally pick up.

Heavens, if the unemployment rate is at 7% or so come the November election, Tea Partiers will be wondering what's left to talk about. They'll have to fall back on papilloma vacines causing retardation as their major campaign them.

 

I can virtually guarantee you that without another round of QE the unemployment numbers will start to rise again!

 

No, you can't. Any more than you can predict the price of gold next month.

 

Is a "virtual guarantee" kind of like your assurance that gas would hit $5/gal this summer and that gold and silver would continue going up when silver was $50/oz?

 

Poor you. Incapable of comprehending a simple argument. Tisk-tisk...

Yes, well, you continue to "hope". It's all the Obamaphiles have left.

And IF Obama's followers weren't such economic illiterates, that might happen.

 

nobody can predict day to day or month to month trends thats true as there could be unforseen events that take place......but long term trends are very easy to predict......that is......to the trained eye

 

when QE 3 is announced you will have your 5 dollar gas and beyond along with your 50 dollar and beyond silver prices.


the air is getting low in the tire....time for some more air