Initial unemployment claims plunge 27,000 to below 400,000, lowest level since April

An argument for a much larger stimulus plan, as Krugman pointed out from the start.

 

Cycles happen. Ford weathered the storm and propered.

So the claim that union contracts sunk GM is pure conservative spinning, like everything they say. Completely fact free.

The difference between Ford and GM was better better management and less exposure to CDSs and the other nonsense GMAC got involved in to maximize profits.

 

Even GM manageament admitted they no longer could afford to pay all the healthcare benefits to all the retired GM workers......that and the overly generous pension benefits broght GM on the edge!

 

You mean they blamed unions rather than taking responsibility for their mistakes.

Yeah, what's new. It's what conservatives do.

 

the only mistake management made was cave in to the union's demands

 

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits slipped 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 403,000, the Labor Department said. Economists had forecast claims falling to 400,000. The four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends, dropped 6,250 to 403,000 -- the lowest level since mid-April.

For the third straight week, initial unemployment claim have hovered around the 400k level, suggesting that the 37,000 drop in late September was not an aberration but a (surprising) positive change in employment picture.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/20/us-usa-economy-idUSTRE79C2L720111020

This is corroborated by Gallup, which has also noted a (surprising) improvement in employment recently:



http://www.gallup.com/poll/150137/Unemployment-Down-Sharply-Early-October.aspx

It will be interesting to see if these improvement reflect in the BLS's numbers out at the beginning of next month. The BLS has applied a sharp seasonal correction (about 7/10th of a percentage point) for October over the last couple years, so I doubt we will see a marked improvement in their seasonally adjusted rate.

However, if these trends continue, the Republicans will have to come up with another impediment to recovery like their debt ceiling extortion fiasco to keep the economy down until the 2012 elections.

 

but now QE has ended, you see how the economy is slowly grinding to a halt?

 

No, what I see (in the figures above) is the economy not sliding back into recession but still moving forward.

Which to me is quite surprising, given the wrecked real estate market from the implosion of the housing bubble, and given the shattered confidence from the debt ceiling fiasco and the concern over Europe's inability to get their (*)(*)(*)(*) together.

I would not have been surprised at all to see the economy sliding back into a recession, and I even expected it when I saw confidence fall 20 points after the debt ceiling fiasco. But it seem that despite the lack of confidence, people are still spending and businesses still hiring, albiet not as fast as we'd like.

 

More evidence consistent with Gallup's data.

WASHINGTON – Unemployment rates fell in half of U.S. states last month, a sign that September's pickup in hiring was felt around the country.

The Labor Department says unemployment rates dropped in 25 states, rose in 14 and stayed the same in 11. That's a modest improvement from August, when unemployment rose in 26 states.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/story/2011-10-21/unemployment-states-september/50854214/1

 

From your link:

'Still, the national unemployment rate has been stuck near 9% for more than two years. Employers have added an average of only 72,000 jobs per month in the past five months. That's far below the 100,000 per month needed to keep up with population growth. And it's down from an average of 180,000 in the first four months of this year.'


The U.S. economy stinks.

And it's stunk for years.

And it will continue to stink until A) America gets a backbone and just let's the economy fall to the 'natural' low it is dying to get to...so it can FINALLY start to properly recover.

B) the powers that be (Dem or Con or both) eventually find the 'natural' bottom by spending America into virtual bankruptcy.

or C) the powers that be (Dem or Con or both) deliberately start a medium to major war.

 

There's no doubt that the economy hit a snag earlier this year, and then in mid year, when it was recovering, took another hit between the Republican Tea Party debt ceiling fiasco and the machinations in Europe. The resulting 20 point drop in confidence roiled the stock markets, and set the stage for a potential slide back into recession, as many here predicted.

But the curious thing has been that despite the shattered confidence, folks kept on buying and businesses kept on hiring. We haven't seen net job losses, much less in the 700,000+ range that we were seeing in the midst of the Great Recession. The private sector has continued to show gains every month.

And this recent spate of data -- IU dropping suddenly from the 440k range to the 400k range, Gallup's unemployment numbers dropping sharply to their lowest levels since the recession, and this bit showing unemployment dropping in half the states, suggest an economy that is not heading back into a recession, but may be rebounding stronger than expected.

We shall see, but if the trend continues, the Republicans may have to pull another stunt like the debt ceiling fiasco in their efforts to keep unemployment as high as possible going into the 2012 elections.

 

yup, all this stimulus is preventing the economy from finding its natural bottom thus is just being sluggish and not willing to improve any!

 

Thank God for that. Some of us are happy we didn't have another great depression.

 

Such a concept would only exist if a laissez faire economy is a possibility. It isn't. You're therefore abusing basic vocabulary

 

but its also preventing another boom from happening!

 

laissez fair is actually the best approach to the economy!

 

A nonsensical claim that you won't be able to defend

 

Laissez faire is a myth used to herd the gullible

 

name me a boom that has happened after a huge stimulus by the government? There may be temporary activity but once the stimulus money runs out the economy resumes its downward trend as it tries to find its natural bottom!

 

nope....its actually stimulus that is used to heard the gullible and in order for politicians to win votes!

 

You're asking a stupid question. Fiscal policy reduces the negative effects of the downturn. That is, bleedin obviously, followed eventually by a boom

You refer to a nonsensical 'natural bottom'. There's no such result. Capitalism go hands in hand with interventionism. Your laissez faire stuff is prattle

 

Inane response, but thanks for admitting that you cannot deny that laissez faire is a myth used to herd the gullible

 

In other words bacardi...he can't.

Ahh...Reiver's old standby response when asked to actually prove a point he has made:

He insults, talks gibberish with just enough fact in it so it sounds plausible but offers no freely accessible facts/data to back it up...EVER, makes another point to try and deflect from your original question and then throws in another insult for the road.


That's our Reiver.

 

Try reading! Fiscal policy is used to minimise the damage of down-turns (see, for example, potential hysteresis effects in unemployment). By definition, they're followed by booms. Aren't you even aware of the business cycle? I know you struggle with economics, but please!

Economics ain't for right wingers

 

its an interesting way to pass the time though