It’s Time to End Magical Thinking About Russia’s Defeat

Discussion in 'Political Opinions & Beliefs' started by Lil Mike, Nov 17, 2023.

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  1. Lil Mike

    Lil Mike Well-Known Member

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    All is proceeding as I have foreseen...

    It’s Time to End Magical Thinking About Russia’s Defeat

    Putin has reason to believe that time is on his side. At the front line, there are no indications that Russia is losing what has become a war of attrition. The Russian economy has been buffeted, but it is not in tatters. Putin’s hold on power was, paradoxically, strengthened following Yevgeny Prigozhin’s failed rebellion in June. Popular support for the war remains solid, and elite backing for Putin has not fractured.

    Western officials’ promises of reinvigorating their own defense industries have collided with bureaucratic and supply-chain bottlenecks. Meanwhile, sanctions and export controls have impeded Putin’s war effort far less than expected. Russian defense factories are ramping up their output, and Soviet legacy factories are outperforming Western factories when it comes to much-needed items like artillery shells.

    The technocrats responsible for running the Russian economy have proven themselves to be resilient, adaptable, and resourceful. Elevated oil prices, driven in part by close cooperation with Saudi Arabia, are refilling state coffers. Ukraine, by contrast, depends heavily on infusions of Western cash.

    None of this should come as a surprise. More than six months before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Putin signed off on a new National Security Strategy for Russia. The main thrust of that document was to prepare the country for a long-term confrontation with the West. Today Putin can tell the nation that his strategy is working.

    But now is the time to transition to a long-term strategy that increases and sustains the pressure on the rogue regime in the Kremlin. There should be no illusions that any possible combination of short-term steps will be sufficient to force Putin to abandon his war.


    What Western leaders conspicuously haven’t done is level with their publics about the enduring nature of the threat from an emboldened, revisionist Russia. They have indulged all too often in magical thinking—betting on sanctions, a successful Ukrainian counter-offensive or the transfer of new types of weapons to force the Kremlin to come to the negotiating table. Or they have hoped to see Putin overthrown in a palace coup.


    Check, check, and check. I would sure like to hear from the many pro-war folks on the forum. I'm curious as to what the new talking points are, or if there is finally some reality breaking through?
     
    Last edited: Nov 17, 2023
  2. yardmeat

    yardmeat Well-Known Member

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    I disagree with the idea that Ukraine should just bend the knee to a fascist invasion from terrorist forces.
     
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  3. FatBack

    FatBack Well-Known Member

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    So while our country is suffocating under national debt and inflation.... How many more hundreds of billions of dollars do progressive think that we should spend on some other country?
     
  4. USVet

    USVet Well-Known Member

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    There is nothing magical about Russia's defeat. It is simply math being applied.
     
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  5. DEFinning

    DEFinning Well-Known Member Donor

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    @Lil Mike

    In the Latest U.S. and World News forum, it is a requirement that your O.P. uses a linked source. I assume the italicized bulk of your post, is that source (you don't add very much of your own "argument")-- but where is the link? I had wanted to check what specific steps the author was recommending, "to transition to a long-term strategy that increases and sustains the pressure on the rogue regime in the Kremlin." Nor do you provide any details, of what the alternative to our current course, entails.


    P.S.-- While it remains to be seen if the, currently anonymous, author may have predicted a better, long term approach-- you certainly had not: your fear of Putin's reaction, has had you, from the start, advocating for us to stay completely out of the conflict. For whatever criticisms this article offers toward the current approach, it seems clear that it does concur with the view that the free world must oppose Russia's aggression (the clue, is in the description "rogue regime"). IOW, it would be your neutrality approach which it would define, as the far bigger "fail."
     
    Last edited: Nov 17, 2023
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  6. Tipper101

    Tipper101 Well-Known Member

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    Did Putin drink from the Holy Grail and is now immortal? He must’ve since Putin thinks time is on his side. Lol. The guy is gonna die in a few years, if he isn’t already.
     
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  7. Tipper101

    Tipper101 Well-Known Member

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    I think Lil Mike wants all that money to go back to Biden to spend here because he loves Biden spending money here and thinks Biden will be very wise in all his democratic constituencies that he thinks Biden will spend it on.

    …which is weird because I think lil Mike is a Republican…
     
  8. DEFinning

    DEFinning Well-Known Member Donor

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    Right-- Lil Mike neglected to snip whatever alternate course, the author is advocating. In fact, he also neglected to provide a link for his source-- probably because his snipped article, still has the perspective that Putin need be stopped, by the rest of the world. This person is merely suggesting different tactics (which I would be interested to consider). The problem for Lil Mike, is that his position, has always been that we should ignore the actions of Russia's "rogue regime," provided that these actions are not directly aimed at us.
     
    Last edited: Nov 17, 2023
  9. Lil Mike

    Lil Mike Well-Known Member

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    You are quite correct. When I post an article, I usually post the link in the title. Guess I forgot this time. Anyway, here it is:

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/othe...al-thinking-about-russia-s-defeat/ar-AA1k28ij
     
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  10. Vernan89188

    Vernan89188 Well-Known Member

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    If you foresaw the Humas/Isreal conflict, you get credit. Otherwise, times up I agree, sides need to get reoriented...I dont even reconize some of my fellow right or leftists.

    Principles: Constitution, check.
    Social justice, liberty, capitalism, Universal healthcare...im missing a few ill get back to ya.

    Edit: Incentives to guarantee a 40 hour work week pays 150% a states unemployment rate.

    Thats still team blue?
     
    Last edited: Nov 17, 2023
  11. Lil Mike

    Lil Mike Well-Known Member

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    Oh no, I didn't foresee the current Hamas/Israel war, other than I knew that there would be another one eventually, and heck, everyone knew that.

    But I did foresee that there just wasn't any way that Ukraine could win this war, even with Western help. The only thing that could have turned the tide was NATO entering into the war, and considering how that would be World War III, that seemed a bit unlikely. Although crazy statements from western leaders did give a scare a time or two.
     
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  12. vman12

    vman12 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    If Russia was smart they'd start calling themselves Hamas 2.
     
  13. Lil Mike

    Lil Mike Well-Known Member

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    It would get the college kids behind them!
     
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  14. Vernan89188

    Vernan89188 Well-Known Member

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    The first sentence was the point.
    Iv seen the back and forward about the rest, thats all.
     
    Last edited: Nov 17, 2023
  15. vman12

    vman12 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I've looked at some of the battle info. Russia is incredibly incompetent to the point that their tactics look like suicide. They just run into the meat grinder over and over with ridiculous casualties.
     
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  16. vman12

    vman12 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Hell every leftist in the country would be flying Russian flags tomorrow.
     
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  17. Lil Mike

    Lil Mike Well-Known Member

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    That more describes Ukraine's military strategy over the past year.
     
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  18. Lil Mike

    Lil Mike Well-Known Member

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    Well the college kids loved the Soviet Union at one time. So it could happen.
     
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  19. vman12

    vman12 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    They all certainly love Hamas.
     
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  20. Vernan89188

    Vernan89188 Well-Known Member

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    Yea thats strange....
     
  21. vman12

    vman12 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The Russian morale is at an all time low. Drug usage is rampant. Their equipment is junk. The Wagner group is a wild card with their commander being killed.

    Check out the Russian attack on Avdiivka.
     
  22. vman12

    vman12 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Why is it strange?
     
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  23. Vernan89188

    Vernan89188 Well-Known Member

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    Because neither side supports liberty.
     
  24. vman12

    vman12 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Are you saying that Israel, the only multi-cultural, multi-religious democratic country in thousands of miles, that is 21% Arab, doesn't support liberty?
     
    Last edited: Nov 17, 2023
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  25. Vernan89188

    Vernan89188 Well-Known Member

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    I confess..Im thoroughly confused.
     

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