It seems like we may have another surge of Covid-19 in the USA

https://www.mdedge.com/infectiousdi...fueling-already-raging-fire-fifth-covid-surge

Cases going up again before the holidays... likely this will accelerate during the holidays.

This is discouraging.

 

Yep, more injections of the clot shots leads to more infections. It's not rocket science.

 

Batshit. It is not rocket science, it is however a field of science that you know nothing whatsoever about. Prove, using evidence, that a vaccine will cause more infections. Try to steer clear of your almost exclusively crazy supply of deliberate misinformation "sources".

Prove, using anything tangible, that labelling the vaccines "clot shots" is not deliberate and misleading misinformation.

 

How many more times will this card get played? I get it, it generates clicks and sells adverts but I'm tired of it.

 

I have the good fortune of not reading the anti-vaxxer you're talking to (my Ignore list is long and is full of anti-vaxxers, because dialoguing with them is useless; like all conspiracy theories, facts don't matter to them).

But from your answer, I can comment.

Vaccine causing infections: impossible. No Covid-19 vaccines currently distributed anywhere in the world use live SARS-CoV-2 virus as a platform. The closest would be the Chinese CoronaVac that uses dead, inactivated whole SARS-CoV-2 virus, but, you know, dead viruses don't replicate. So, none of the Covid-19 vaccines can cause the infection. About them indirectly causing more infections by selecting resistant strains, which is theoretically possible, it's not what we are seeing in real life. The biggest example is Delta: it was first spotted in India on October 5, 2020, and vaccination in India only started two and a half months later, on January 16, 2021. We got two variants of concern out of South Africa, a country with a very low rate of vaccination.

It is interesting to notice that while Brazil was poorly vaccinated they got the Gamma variant (and a couple of others). Now that Brazil is highly vaccinated, they stopped churning out variants. Why? Because variants tend to form within unvaccinated people in which the virus lingers for longer and has the time to mutate. Vaccinated people who clear the virus rapidly, do not tend to be the source for mutations. The theory for the origin of the Omicron variant, is that patient zero was likely an HIV-positive South African who had a case of long Covid together with common cold coronaviruses (Omicron contains a recombinant strain that seems to have originated in a common cold coronavirus, or the HIV virus).

Can vaccination make people more reckless so that they spread the infection in case they catch a breakthrough case? Sure, but in population terms, study over study shows that the reckless ones are the same ones who refuse vaccines and masks. Vaccinated people actually tend to remain prudent, because they were prudent to start with. Also, studies in households where a vaccinated person had a breakthrough infection showed that the person transmitted the virus much less than a person who is unvaccinated, in a similar household. Also, even though initial viral load is the same in breakthrough cases and unvaccinated cases, the former declines steeply much sooner, so vaccinated people are less infectious and remain infectious for a shorter period.

Labeling vaccines "clot shots" - incredibly evil piece of misinformation. One, the mRNA vaccines don't cause the clots. Two, the ones that do, the adenovirus vector vaccines (AstraZeneca, J&J) do it with a frequency of 4 cases for each 1 million people, a rate inferior to the one caused by birth control pills and airplane rides. Should we call airplanes, clot flights? The virus itself, though, causes blood clotting in 2 out of 3 people (if you look for it with tests, you'll find it, even in mild cases). So, a vaccine that prevents a virus that causes blood clots in 2 out of 3 people, and in so doing, lowers that incidence to 4 cases in 1 million (for comparison, the rate of being struck by lightning is 2 in 1 million), can hardly be called a clot shot.

 

Well, there we go, as of yesterday we are back to 107,000 new cases per day and 1,700 deaths and we haven't even had the Christmas surge yet. This is likely to go up with Christmas travel and Omicron.

 

I heard a doctor being interviewed a few days ago and he stated it as simple as he could. He said people will either get vaccinated or they will end up getting COVID. I had never heard it said so well.

 

I guess those vaccines aren't helping much

 

A more accurate statement would have been everyone vaccinated or unvaccinated will end up being infected.

 

That is not necessarily true, 557, and I'd expect that you know it. There is such thing as neutralizing immunity. Have you seen the studies showing neutralizing antibodies against Omicron jumping up 25 fold and providing adequate neutralization? This may allow people to gain time until Omicron specific vaccines are developed.

I don't plan on getting infected. I think that this virus is dangerous enough in terms of organ damage, even for mild cases so I'll continue to do everything I can to avoid getting infected.

Some things I did:

I stopped working at the Covid unit in my hospital. I figured that I've helped enough; my age and some medical conditions make it risky for me so I figure that it's the younger colleagues' turn to help. My seniority (and my "paid dues" given that I did help a lot) allow me to make this move.

Even in my non-Covid unit, I've been working more remotely, using videophones to communicate with my team (most of what I do these days both in my clinical unit and research lab is supervision anyway; residents and research assistants do the bulk of the in-person work).

I do not tolerate any member of my team working without proper use of advanced PPE. If someone wears a mask below their nose, they will hear from me and they know I won't be pleased. After some initial conflicts with some repeat offenders being disciplined, all members of my team have been proficient in wearing PPE correctly, 100% of them are vaccinated (we have a mandate; we fired some people), and many of them are getting the booster spontaneously (no mandate for boosters); the demand for boosters increased exponentially after the news of Omicron got divulged).

I got a Moderna booster on top of my Pfizer basic vaccination, probably the best combination for more neutralizing immunity.

In all meetings that are not virtual, I limit attendance size, alternate sitting, and I have a large HEPA air purifier that uses internal UV lights and a true H13 filter that runs in all meetings.

In case of severe exposure, I intend to get a monoclonal antibody infusion immediately. These days it's unlikely that I'll get severe exposure, including because at work if I have to actually see presentially a Covid19-positive patient, I'll wear a gown with hood and PAPR.

As soon as a specific Omicron vaccine is released, I'll take it.

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This is not a virus anyone should be cavalier about (unless it attenuates considerably) so I intend to continue to be Covid-19 free, if I can.

 

Yes, I’ve spent hours on PF trying to convince pro vaxxers current Covid vaccines can (and do) prevent infection. I’ve also eaten my crow on PF for being wrong about the extent to which this occurs. I was too sanguine initially. And yes, it looks like current vaccines will provide neutralization for variants for most vaccinees…..temporarily. And that’s the crux of the issue. After about 3 months post vaccination that neutralizing effect drops like a rock. Yes, many still benefit from a degree of neutralizing effect, but many do not. Thus, it’s just a numbers game. Eventually exposure will lead to infection unless you are boostering every few months. Even then protection from infection (severe disease protection is a totally different discussion as cellular immunity has better longevity) is far from 100%. The only thing that will change this would be a full on long term sterilizing immunity inducing vaccine. That may happen, but it’s wishful thinking if not pure fantasy at this point.

I believe only a very small percentage of infected persons planned on getting infected. I certainly don’t have a problem with people doing everything they can to avoid infection. I believe everyone should make decisions they feel are right for them. Only a VERY small percentage of people will do everything they can to avoid infection. I’d be surprised to hear of ANYONE actually doing everything they can to prevent infection. You know I basically self quarantined for about a year and a half total (not all in one piece) which is the most effective way to prevent infection. Few were willing to do that. I’m not willing to again for Covid. I’m completely at peace with my level of risk as I have been throughout the pandemic because I’ve always had control of my risk.

All wise moves for someone in your situation in my opinion.
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I hope you can. I hope everyone who doesn’t want a natural infection can avoid it. But the odds are against it if one returns to a high degree of normalcy in everyday life. Out of curiosity, do you ever antibody test to see if you have been infected?

To get back to the post I responded to, I believe it’s malpractice for the physician referenced in that post to infer the vaccinated won’t eventually get Covid and unvaccinated eventually will. In reality the unvaccinated will just become infected sooner on average than the vaccinated. When there are so many other mitigations available, it’s absurd in my opinion to reduce Covid prevention advice to a false dichotomy. Just being vaccinated and ignoring other mitigations is not particularly effective at preventing infection (infection, not severe disease). We don’t even really have a clue as to the rates of breakthrough infections in the general public because we aren’t looking for them. Never mind breakthrough infections are twice as likely to be asymptomatic as cases in the naive unvaccinated, meaning even when we do screen for asymptomatic breakthrough infections the positive predictive value of antigen type tests are only around 33% and only a bit better for a single PCR test (depending on timing relative to exposure). Long story short, a huge number of vaccinated individuals are going to be infected and never have a clue it ever happened unless antibody testing later identifies the natural infection.

 

Seems like Natural Immunity + Vaccination may be the most potent combo.

Vaccination strengthens antibodies in people who have had COVID-19.

 

good news, looks like Pfizer covers the new variant

 

both the vaccinated and the unvaccinated will most likely get covid (many times), just the vaccinated have better odds of surviving it with fewer issues... like death

 

All correct. I think the boosters are allowing us to gain some time until antivirals by the mouth get approved, produced, and easily available in a pharmacy near you. By the way I failed to insert the word "with a booster" in the phrase about 25-fold increase in neutralizing antibodies, but I think you understood my point anyway.

Sure, but I used this phrasing just as a way of speaking, of conveying that I'm trying my best to avoid infection. Believe it or not, though, I think there is a significant number of people, the "natural immunity" fans, who actually plan on getting infected by not taking any mitigation measure, and even, we've heard about the "Covid parties", some with disastrous results. But yes, hopefully it is a minority.

Again, all correct except that I have hopes that it's not just a VERY small percentage of people who will do everything they can to avoid infection. I have a circle of friends that do so too, and are part of our social bubble so that we continue to see each other from time to time for a dinner party and the odds that one of us will infect the others are vey low.

Yep. And I could have added that my wife and I do not eat in indoor restaurants, and limit grocery store hours to times when they are emptier of clients, and we both wear at least an N95 (well sealed) when we go into any store. We've been avoiding air travel too but we have decided to take a risk this Christmas and fly domestically to see family. Well, one could say that I am NOT doing all I can to avoid infection if I'm flying domestically - I could drive there but it's a 13-hour drive. But at least, my wife and I plan on wearing N100s throughout the airport and flight and not take them out for eating/drinking; we will just hydrate and eat before and after the trip.

Again, you're right about that.

Yes. Negative so far.

You're right about that, too.

Correct, again. I do have a stock of at-home antigen tests and I'm aware of the low predictive value but it's better than nothing. My wife and I get PCR-tested too when there is a case of a patient or employee that is found to be positive on the floor or unit where we work. Again, so far always negative. We've managed to navigate this pandemic so far without getting infected although we have worked with Covid-positive patients and had many positive employees. Hopefully we'll stay this way. I'll be much less worried and will relax some of the containment measures once Paxlovid is widely available.

My hospital carefully screens employees every day for symptoms or contacts with known positive people in the community. We exclude an employee from work in case of fever, upper respiratory (and other) symptoms, or known exposure, and we test them repeatedly until we give them the greenlight to come back to work. Employees have only two entry points into the building where screeners are stationed. A little sticker that changes every day is placed on the employee's badge when they pass the screening. And now we have a screening app too.

We've had episodes of being short-staffed by being so strict (there are many times when we screen out an employee who turns out not to have Covid at all, and that decreases the number of employees able to work at any given day). We had to close one of our units for lack of sufficient nursing. But it beats the alternative (widespread outbreaks among the healthcare workers, which would be even more disruptive to the operations).

I'm glad that our Infection Control department and our administration have been very "zero tolerance" regarding Covid-19 coming in by means other than admitting Covid patients to the Covid unit and Covid-dedicated ICU. Mandates have been issued and are very strict, no opt-out by testing. People got fired. The reluctant ones who saw peers getting fired then got vaccinated. PPE use is closely monitored and like I said, the idiots who wear masks under their noses or even under their shin have been disciplined. We also require good seal. Not just flimsy surgical masks. If someone wants to wear surgical masks, it must be under a brace or a second cloth mask that improves the seal. Non-clinical care employees are strongly encouraged to wear N95s if they so desire, and we do have them in stock to give to them. Clinical care employees are mandated to wear N95s. Direct-care employees in contaminated situations are required to wear full gown/hood and PAPR.

It's been a remarkable job by our administrators. I've seen hospitals much less strict about it, which then results in much bigger outbreaks among employees, which I consider to be extremely stupid.

 

There is no evidence that vaccines provide any help when we look at the infections and death rates for the whole population of United States.

 

Why is this discouraging? If the current vaccines are unable to protect the vaccinated, and omicron isn't remotely fatal, who cares?

 

I think you got your logic line backwards. How about you prove that the vaccination precludes these new infections, more more importantly, figure out what the outcomes might be. Perhaps we all shouldn't panic just yet...

 

says who?

 

Who cares? It's a much, much milder version of the disease, making it kind of like herpes. Does it really matter if you have it, if you never even notice?

 

Worldmeter.

 

The jury on whether or not it is a much, much milder version of the disease is still out. This thread was posted when we didn't really know anything about it, yet. We'll see. In subsequent posts of mine about this, most notably in a thread by Pollycy, my take was more optimistic and I highlighted several times that if this version is really attenuated, then it's a blessing in disguise. Later there were some discouraging news from South Africa of a spike in hospitalizations... then other encouraging news... it's a bit controversial as of now, but let's hope you are right.

 

@577
Two new and large studies from Israel released yesterday. HUGE efficacy for booster shots. This is encouraging. How long will the efficacy last? Unknown. But like I said, the important thing is to gain time until antivirals are in.

https://www.mdedge.com/internalmedi...ath-plummets-pfizer?ecd=WNL_eve_211209_mdedge

 

Right, and Pfizer would never deceive you or anybody else, despite the fact that they've pleaded guilty to criminal medical fraud twice before.

Place great faith in the statements of known liars FreshAir, it has served you so well in the past.

 

This will be just like the flu. Something we’re all going to have to live with for the rest of our lives. It’s never going away.