Lock Him Up? A New Poll Has Some Bad News For Trump.

I do too. The dislike of both Biden and Trump among independents is very high, around 60% or more for both. They don’t want neither one. But like you, once the trials begin, Trump will become the more disliked which would doom him among independents in the general election. The Democrats and Biden’s possible major problem as I see it, is they’ve spent all their time, energy and even money gearing up for a rematch between Trump and Biden. If the Republicans by some strange and unforeseen circumstance nominate someone other than Trump, Biden and the Democrats could be in trouble. The dislike of that some other candidate will most likely be well below the independents dislike of Biden instead of being in a basic tie with Trump today. We’ll see what happens. But I’d say that not a single democrat has thought about Biden having to go up against someone other than Trump which could come back to bite them. I doubt that will happen, but politics is very strange and mostly unpredictable. Remember, the democrats have put all their time and effort into getting Trump in jail, that success if successful, could lead to their own undoing come election time. Time will tell.

 

Just curious as to what basis you are using, for your assessment. How can we accurately guage this, other than by recent elections, and voter registrations? Isn't that the same basis, as is used by these polls?

 

I'd commented on this post, of yours:

Kode said: ↑
It’s not about Dems winning. It’s about stopping future and “improved” attempts to seize the state to end the Constitution and install authoritarianism. It’s about setting an example. It’s about establishing a precedent.
<End>

As I'd agreed with you, following the rule of law, & establishing that even Presidents will be held to account (as a deterrent to others, drawn to follow in Trump's path), is certainly the motivation behind the criminal prosecutions.

Obviously, though, the poll has nothing to do with "setting an example...establishing a precedent." The poll shows that better than half of Independent voters, already believe that Trump is guilty, of trying to subvert the election results (among other things). Also, particularly among Independent voters, it shows that not everyone has made up their mind, about Trump. For a key one-third of the electorate, how these prosecutions play out, could well be the decisive factor, in how they vote. It is encouraging, at least, that a sizable majority of Independent voters, are interested in seeing these trials take place, prior to the election.

 

Addressing your scenario as you portray it-- with Trump's nomination, as a forgone conclusion-- I have to ask, how can you not think your point about the election being more than a year away, works against Trump, and in Biden's favor? That is, while the future is, of course, never certain, what is the likelihood that this stampede of Trump trials, is going to boost Trump's numbers, among Independents? Rather, should Trump still be the Republican nominee, the next year's news seems almost surely to be worse for Trump's general election chances, than for Biden's.

 

We won't rewrite the law to allow Donald Trump to remain POTUS.

Even if that's what you'd like.

Trump is facing 91 charges, he's going to stand 4 trials, he'll have the change to convince 4 juries that he's not a criminal.

 

By your logic, it is "literally in (the) best interests" of all those wanting a Republican President, to nominate someone other than Trump. So, you are excusing the majority of the Republican electorate, for not doing the smart thing-- while criticizing President Biden, for not illegally interfering, to prevent Trump's prosecution (as if he even could)? That really displays the mentality of the current Republican Party: no matter what happens, it is always the fault of some Democrat; never the fault of Republicans, themselves. Very pathetic.

Trump is your Party's doing. Howling at the Dems, accomplishes nothing. In your Party's nominating Primary-- irrespective of anything Democrats do-- you hold the silver bullets, to put him down.

 

IMO, Biden, if his team follows his lead, is likely to be in a stronger position next year depending on the outcome of the war in Ukraine and the state of our economy. The "news" will probably be good for Biden as the election approaches.
OTOH, the now very obvious persecution of Trump is expanding his political influence creating an opportunity for a RP win in 2024 which would otherwise have been impossible.

“In the other, an active, even violent, witness of a transcendent “truth” – someone who is ready to face their own death at the hands of enemies, performing an act of self-sacrifice in order to witness to an abstraction, e.g. to their religious faith, a concept like the nation, or a political idea like democracy.”

“From a phenomenological point of view, we could say that martyrdom is a paradoxical phenomenon, an act of public testimony that ends with the destruction of its subject. In order to be a true witness to one’s own death, one must be able to survive it (Derrida, 1998). That’s why martyrdom always involves the intervention of a second witness, a survivor to the death who is a witness of the testimony/martyrdom. And it is based on this second witness’s narrative, and their historical, cultural, political, and religious interpretation, that the martyr will be “made” and defined in his act.”
By Bianca Maria Esposito, February 22, 2022.
CRITICAL THEORY FOR POLITICAL THEOLOGY 2.0, Martyrdom
https://politicaltheology.com/martyrdom/

 

yes, they are issues, at least to the Democratic constituents and possibly half of the independents. you may not agree with them, you may not even like them as issues, but they are issues nonetheless.

You have Gov. DeSantis making his campaign about the woke culture. You have Trump's campaign making it about the 2020 election time and time again. You have Vivik who is auditioning to becoming Trump's VP. You have Sen. Tim Scott who is trying to play Mr. Nice Guy, and so forth. But none of the GOP candidates are talking policy. Either they are trying to blame Joe Biden on anything and everything, or they are making sound bites for the social media crowd to get people to donate to tham and consider them in their state in the primaries.

 

You can look at voter reg numbers per state.

The polls start with the assumption of the same partisan breakdown of the actual voting electorate from the previous cycle. This however is never so.

You can also compare special election polling 2022 - 2023 to the actual results and in most all cases the Ds far exceeded polling expectations because the polling models were too R-rich

Alaska is a great example
The WI supreme court race

And dozens of others

Also the thousands upon thousands of Personal videos/social media declarations of former Republicans who have left the GOP specifically because of Trump, sent to the Meidas Network.