Should Trump go to jail?

Discussion in 'Political Opinions & Beliefs' started by Patricio Da Silva, May 31, 2024.

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Should Trump do time in prison?

Poll closed Jun 30, 2024.
  1. Yes, prison

    15 vote(s)
    62.5%
  2. Yes, house arrest

    1 vote(s)
    4.2%
  3. Yes, but suspended sentence

    3 vote(s)
    12.5%
  4. No, just probation and a fine.

    5 vote(s)
    20.8%
  1. Patricio Da Silva

    Patricio Da Silva Well-Known Member Donor

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    On July 11, Trump will be sentenced.

    That sentence will be determined by both mitigating circumstances, weighed against aggravating circumstances, as I understand it in NY.

    Going by what we know, let's take a look.

    Mitigating circumstances: I'd say age, and first offense.

    Aggravating circumstances: Devalued 135 million votes, no remorse, his tweets incited violent threats on pertinent people, staff, the judge, the DA, etc., and 10 counts of contempt of court. And if I were the judge, I'd add 'menace to society', but I don't think this judge will add it to the list.

    I'd say, because of the aggravating circumstance, there is no way he is not going to do time.

    34 counts, up to for years each, but law limits total to 20 years, I'd say he's going to get 4 years, he'll be out in 2 on good behavior. Or, it will be 2 years and out in 1 for good behavior. There will be a huge fine and probation.

    It might be reversed on appeal, but this thread isn't about the appeal. Personally, I doubt it. The appellate court will have to find an error in the proceedings deemed to have clearly resulted in a different outcome, and given the weakness of the defenses case, the strength of the prosecution's case, the speed with which the jury deliberated, noting that they did the proper thing to ask for what was the key evidence, their deliberation, though fast, was done thoughtfully, therefore, I'm not seeing a reversal. Maybe a reduction of the sentence if they deem it too excessive. As for the issue of impartiality being claimed by the right? Not buying it, that's just partisanship, in my view.

    For those who have said 'he won't do time, maybe house arrest', I'm not buying that, either, not with this judge. He will look at those aggravating circumstances and weigh that against his age, and I think he'll give him at least 2 years, maybe 4.

    Could I be wrong? Sure, I really don't know, no one does. My original guess that he would be convicted 50/50 chance, and 50/50 hung jury. I was surprised that it wasn't a hung jury, because I believe on of the jurors, on voir dire, said they got their info from tic toc, or some silly source, which made me believe this was a low information type person, likely to hang the jury, but, as it turned out, it wasn't the case.

    But Cohen was sentenced to jail for 3 years (was released 2 1/2 years but did almost 2 months in solitary on a second bout to prison, enforced by Bill Barr but released on appeal which found his incarceration the second time unjust -- Cohen wrote in his book that it was retribution for his book on Trump which makes perfect sense) on 8 counts of which 2 of them were related to the object crime in the Hush Money case, all under the direction and for the benefit of 'individual - 1', which we know is Donald Trump who is unindicted co-conspirator. We also know that the original charging document had 'individual-1' written in the document far more than it was, as, due to pressure from Bill Barr, most of the references were stripped out. We know this from former US Attorney Geoffrey Berman who described it in his book:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...-almost-implicated-trump-more-directly-crime/

    So, if 1 Cohen conceivable spent 8.5 months (1/4 of 2 1/2 plus one month) due to charges pertaining to the Donald, it's logical that the Donald will get more than that. I doubt Trump will get solitary confinement but, in my view, he should.

    Now some of you on the right believe the verdict will be reversed on constitutional grounds, but the issue of constitutionality will ultimately decided by the Supreme Court, and I do believe this appeal will go all the way there, no doubt. Trump has some friends on the court, so I'm not optimistic. If that turns out to be true, that will be tragic for justice, and more testament that the Supreme Court is the worst court in US History. "In my opinion". On the other hand, there is a strong likelihood the SCOTUS will not grant cert. Why? It's a MASSIVE HOT POTATO. The flack the court took in Bush v Gore is fresh on their minds. Who wants it? They just might allow a lower court ruling. We shall see.

    What do you say? Do you agree with my mitigating/aggravating lists?

    Let's discuss.
     
    Last edited: May 31, 2024
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  2. Josh77

    Josh77 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I don't like Trump, even a little bit, but there are SO MANY politicians that get away with crap far worse than this that don't serve a day in jail, that putting Trump in Jail would just look like a ploy to make it less likely for him to get elected. There is no way you can jail him without saying it is for political reasons concerning the upcoming election.
    Especially when the sitting President and his State Department are guilty of so much worse, supporting the ongoing genocide in Israel in violation of international law. It makes what Trump did look like child's play.

    Best case scenario, the American people wake up and realize they are choosing between a turd and a **** sandwich, and they all vote third party.
     
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  3. ECA

    ECA Well-Known Member

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    Should Trump go to jail?

    No. And this from someone who isn't a Trump supporter. This is a very low level crime and therefore shouldn't have jail time.
     
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  4. Melb_muser

    Melb_muser Well-Known Member Donor

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    Absolutely not Jail.

    And even if there is a scope for sentencing the Judge should exercise leniancy for the good of the country.
     
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  5. Patricio Da Silva

    Patricio Da Silva Well-Known Member Donor

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    They are not guilty of anything, and you are looking at it through a hyper-partisan lens. Israel is a sovereign country, and they can do whatever they want, and there's not much Biden can do, except withhold aid, which i beleive he did. In fact, in late April 2024, the Biden administration paused a shipment of 3,500 unguided munitions, including 2,000-pound and 500-pound bombs, due to concerns about their impact on civilians in dense urban areas of Gaza. So, no, on your premise.
    Trump is a criminal, Biden is elderly. Not seeing said 'sandwich'. (You really should avoid weasel words if you have any desire to be more persuasive --at least with someone like me, not that you care).

    They are saying that anyway, jail or no jail.

    the issue is whether or not Merchan will consider politics in his sentencing. I doubt that he will. So, I stand by my post. Aslo, refresh your browser, I revised the OP.

    As for third party, the best I can see RJKjr doing is prevent both candidates from getting 270. If that happens, the house will select the president for the third time in US history, the first was in 1800, and teh second was in 1824.

    The House of Representatives has chosen the President of the United States via state delegations twice in history, according to the procedure outlined in the 12th Amendment.

    1. In 1800, Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr both received 73 electoral votes. The House decided the election, with each state delegation casting one vote. After 36 ballots, Jefferson was elected President.
    2. In 1824, none of the four candidates (Andrew Jackson, John Quincy Adams, William H. Crawford, and Henry Clay) received a majority of electoral votes. The House elected John Quincy Adams as President, even though Andrew Jackson had received the most electoral and popular votes.
    In both instances, the decision was made by the House delegations, where each state had one vote.

    Given that, currently, Republicans have a two state majority in the state delegations, if there is a contested election and a House vote, Trump will be the next president if RJKjr wins enough EC votes to deprive both Trump and Biden their 270 they need to win. That is a strong possibility. but, I doubt RJKjr will get 270, not at his current polling.
     
    Last edited: May 31, 2024
  6. Melb_muser

    Melb_muser Well-Known Member Donor

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    That all may be well, technically. However, the truth is it has been kid gloves all the way and that will continue. I can't possibly imagine jail time.
     
  7. StillBlue

    StillBlue Well-Known Member

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    Not for this. Florida? Sure. Georgia? Absolutely.
     
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  8. kriman

    kriman Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I was not going to vote for him before. Now I will.
     
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  9. Hey Now

    Hey Now Well-Known Member

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    Not on this one but if and when the DC and Florida DOJ cases run their course. I don't know how it can be avoided without a pardon. The Florida case, strictly on evidence, is a total slam dunk once it's actually tried.
     
    Last edited: May 31, 2024
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  10. fullmetaljack

    fullmetaljack Well-Known Member

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    He needs to do time. And not jail, prison.

    The Orange Felon needs to made an example. To discourage others from doing the same thing. A general election for the presidency ? That's about as high as it gets here and the penalty needs to be as high as it gets. 2 years per count, to be served consecutively.
     
  11. Patricio Da Silva

    Patricio Da Silva Well-Known Member Donor

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    I argue the precise opposite. He is a menace to society, and should be incarcerated, for the 'good of the country'. Partisans will get over it, in time. they are going to do a lot of sabre rattling, anyway, so let them rattle until they tire of it, and they will tire of it. After the hundreds of incarcerations of 1/6, no one is going to riot. This is where jailing people is doing what is it supposed to be doing, providing a deterrent.

    Look what happened when Ford pardoned Nixon, it told a guy like Trump that, given his history of getting his way in courts, he could get away with crap easily as president. No, to serve as a deterrent for future presidents, I strongly believe he is going to prison. Maybe not for long, but I do believe he will do time.

    If he is not incarcerated, then the entire trial will be for naught, and I do believe this judge understands this. Maybe the conservative and Trump friendly Scotus might reverse the sentence, but that's Trump's only hope. In my view. I could be wrong, but that's my opinion.
     
    Last edited: May 31, 2024
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  12. Bob0627

    Bob0627 Well-Known Member

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    Would any ordinary person be sentenced to prison for committing and being found guilty of the same crimes (all 34 counts)? There is no doubt in my mind. So why on earth would this much less than ordinary person be allowed to avoid jail time?
     
  13. Patricio Da Silva

    Patricio Da Silva Well-Known Member Donor

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    I agree, and I do mean 'prison' I'm using the term 'jail' rather loosely.
     
  14. Eclectic

    Eclectic Newly Registered

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    A fine and probation.

    It would appear that most states either do not have falsifying business records as a specific crime or they classify it as a misdemeanor.

    Since Trump is a national figure, running for national office, the judge should pass a sentence more or less consistent with the national average for the offense, not the peculiar New York law.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falsifying_business_records#Other_states
     
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  15. Hey Now

    Hey Now Well-Known Member

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    As a general comment to the thread, we should never give politicians a pass in any system with a working Rule of Law. It's a fatal cancer to the system. They should be held to a higher standard.
     
    Last edited: May 31, 2024
  16. Patricio Da Silva

    Patricio Da Silva Well-Known Member Donor

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    No, no, emphatically no (to your position, yes to incarceration).

    It is incorrect to classify Trump's recent conviction for 34 felony counts as a low-level crime. These charges are particularly serious when considering that concealing the 'other crime' deprived the electorate of critical information. This concealment, occurring shortly after the Access Hollywood tape scandal, may have influenced the election's outcome, given that Trump won by a narrow margin of approximately 80,000 votes in but two key swing states. Such actions could be seen as election fraud, fundamentally undermining the democratic process.

    The ramifications of this fraud are profound. It likely contributed to the establishment of a 6-3 conservative majority on the Supreme Court, which has since made decisions affecting the Voting Rights Act, campaign finance regulations, and more. Furthermore, Trump's mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic, including resisting aid to states, has had devastating consequences, resulting in tens of thousands of unnecessary deaths according to some estimates.

    Therefore, the gravity of Trump's actions extends far beyond the initial crime. It has had a cascading effect on American politics and governance, making it one of the most significant breaches of public trust, surpassed only by acts of treason.
     
    Last edited: May 31, 2024
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  17. Pro_Line_FL

    Pro_Line_FL Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Some examples?

    Will he be sentenced to prison? Probably not.
     
    Last edited: May 31, 2024
  18. Patricio Da Silva

    Patricio Da Silva Well-Known Member Donor

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    Disagree. See #16
     
  19. Melb_muser

    Melb_muser Well-Known Member Donor

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    I think the electoral interference case is the most egregious offence. But some say on technicality the Florida case is worse.
     
  20. ECA

    ECA Well-Known Member

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    The charge of falsifying business records is a Class E felony in New York, the lowest tier of felony charges in the state. So yes, these are lower level. Duly noted you want Trump jailed. Not gonna happen.
     
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  21. Eclectic

    Eclectic Newly Registered

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    Inducing or coercing individuals to conceal unsavory deeds from a politician's past is not a crime as far as I can tell. If it were, Congress probably couldn't seat a quorum.

    The method of inducement or coercion may be a crime. In the Stormy Daniels case, it would appear that the payment could be alleged to be a campaign contribution not reported as required by federal election laws. However no such offense has been charged or adjudicated.

    It's not clear whether the Stormy Daniels story would have changed the election. Clinton survived the Gennifer Flowers story, as well as many others.

    Trump may win in November. If he does, it is just as much the Democratic Party's fault for running a corrupt octogenarian against the corrupt septuagenarian.
     
  22. Eclectic

    Eclectic Newly Registered

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    The 34 counts seem a little artificial.

    It's like charging a burglar for each watch, ring and bracelet taken from a jewelry store.
     
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  23. Josh77

    Josh77 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    No, the 'sovereign country' BS excuse does not cut it. They are using OUR weapons to commit the most evil, heinous acts. it is ABSOLUTELY our duty to dictate what they can and cannot do if they wish to continue to receive our aid. Hyper partisan?? What party do you think I belong to?
    He is NOT withholding aid. If he withheld aid, Israel would not be using US-made weaponry to slaughter civilians. He is absolutely guilty of aiding in genocide, a crime FAR more serious than anything Trump took part in. Stop with the partisna excuses of "oh, they are a sovereign nation, we can't do anything...darn." Who is the superpower, and who is the piss-ant state in the middle east?

    As for the third party candidate, Trumps chances are plumetting now that he is being found guilty on all counts, and Biden's chances are plummeting because he has alienated so much of his base, including minorities and young people. All he has left for the most part are those over the age of 45 who are too set in their ways to change who they will vote for.

    If ever there was a good chance for a third party candidate to emerge victorious, it is now, and now is when we need a third party candidate more than ever. We need to shatter the uniparty that has so corrupted US politics.
     
  24. Josh77

    Josh77 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    George Bush with his invasion of Iraq. Hillary Clinton and Obama for their hideous actions causing the Arab Spring and rise of ISIS. Reagan and the Contra affair. All of the politicians profiting off the trillions in missing funds in the Pentagon. So many crimes being committed that never get tried, never see the light of day, and are dismissed as necessary for "national security', which is a BS excuse they use for every crime.

    Scapegoats get punished while those REALLY responsible get a pass.
     
  25. Patricio Da Silva

    Patricio Da Silva Well-Known Member Donor

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    Yeah, sell out the country because you don't like dems.

    You were going to do that anyway, so cut the crap.
     
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