The Democratic Coalition Is Falling Apart

Interesting post by former Democratic pollster and father of the "Great Replacement," Ruy Teixeira:

The Democratic Coalition Is Falling Apart


Something’s clearly not working here for the Democrats. Despite turning it up to 11 on the threat posed by Trump to democracy throughout Biden’s presidency, and now perhaps to 12 as the probability of a Biden-Trump rematch looms ever larger, actually-existing voters don’t seem to be stampeding in their direction. The big lead that Democrats feel should be naturally theirs is not appearing.

To me, this raises the question: where is the popular front against Trumpism? If he is indeed as bad as most Democrats seem to believe—i.e., we’re one step away from fascism, it’s Weimar Germany 1932 all over again—shouldn’t Democrats be casting the net as wide as possible, compromising on anything and everything to make their party maximally accessible to persuadable voters? After all, we’ve got to stop fascism here!

But that’s not what’s happening. Despite their dire assessment of the threat posed by Trump, moves to compromise on contentious issues that persuadable voters care about are few and far between. Look what’s happening with the immigration issue that has come to the fore in the negotiations over aid to the Ukraine and Israel. Instead of eagerly embracing a deal to move the aid forward that would include fairly modest reforms to the asylum system and other changes to tighten border security, Democrats are evincing the greatest reluctance to make such a deal. And this is despite the reality that voters, including most persuadable voters, view the Democrats as absolutely abysmal on the issue of border security.

It’s hard to understand. And the great irony here is that progressive Democrats, who are precisely the ones who are most hysterical about the threat posed by Trump and Trumpism, are also the ones most adamantly opposed to making any compromise on border security as part of this deal. Or really anything else for that matter.


So good question. If Trump is the greatest threat ever to face the world, why not broaden the coalition against Trump by giving a little on other issues like border security?

I think the question answers itself to me, but Teixeira is a Democrat so he's going to struggle with it a lot longer.

 

In fact, Bribed Joe is 12 points behind last cycle in the Trump head to head.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general-election-trump-vs-biden-7383.html

I think the Left's fascism has shocked the Jews.

Jewish Americans Seeing They Don't Have a Home on Left Now

'if you go all the way back to the original civil rights movement of the 1960s, I think that many Jews were an integral part of that movement and they felt a great solidarity with the civil rights movement and civil rights leaders, because they felt like they had a shared history of persecution. That blacks in America had suffered from racism, Jews around the world felt like they had suffered from anti-Semitism, and they basically believed that all races should be treated equally, we should have individual rights, and basically, they were advocating for color-blind treatment of all people.'

https://www.cnbc.com › 2023 › 09 › 26 › poll-republicans-have-advantages-on-immigration-crime-and-the-economy.html
Poll: Republicans have advantages on immigration, crime and the ... - CNBC
'Voters overwhelmingly trust Republicans to do a better job than Democrats dealing with border security, crime, the economy and immigration, a new national NBC News poll...'

They think that they should have dictatorial control and therefore shouldn't have to compromise on anything.

 

The big reason is that no matter how hard the Dems yell Trump is a Nazi those at the top don't believe it. They just see him as a threat to their hegemony and they hate it. They are so blinded by their lust for power that they have completely lost track of the entire rest of the country and the people who live there. They just see every one out side of DC as pawns to be moved about on some giant chess board that exists only in their own warped corrupt little minds.

The worst, most dangerous sort of greed has little to do with money and everything to do with power and worse meanness. These are the people who are preaching You'll have nothing and be happy. No one else in their evil view should ever have a shot at the brass ring again because that would some how cheapen their own holdings. They are scum with money and no understanding of what the real purpose of money is. You can't eat it, you can wear it, it has no intrinsic value of it's own at least not since the world shifted to fiat currency. Money is but a place holder for hours spent doing things for others The working man gets his money by doing something of value for his boss, The rich man gets his money by providing something of value to a lot of other people. The world goes around that way. The Democrat party leaders now want to stop the world with them on top of the farris wheel, DON'T LET THEM.

 

Teixeira's point is that if the Democrats think Trump is Hitler Part II, they are not acting like it, since they won't compromise on issues to build a large coalition to fight fascism or whatever.

 

I don't think so, if there was ever a "democratic party coalition." The fallacy of your premise is that it is too simplistic, assumes much, and overgeneralizes the political landscape. Right now, it is too early for voters to take notice. But the effect that the Democratic party is not first to the general electorate, but to the GOP and its members first. That effect is having an impact on Nikki Haley and her rise. She is second in line in the GOP polls right now and rising and there are GOP voters who are now taking a second look at Haley instead of Trump. If Haley can win both the New Hampshire Primary and the South Carolina Primary, that may be enough momentum for her to be the GOP Nominee. But if Trump wins one of those primaries, then Trump will be the likely GOP nominee whether he is found guilty or not with this argument shifting from the GOP voters in the primary and to the general electorate in November. Make no mistake, this is a long-term strategy by the DNC for the 2024 election. But it won't be the only strategy front the DNC will employ either when it is time to go after the independent voters come November 2024.

But for the GOP, what Ruy Texeira is arguing is why the GOP voters are not listening to the threats. He has a somewhat idealistic view of voters in general. For the average GOP voter, all of the things are falling on deaf ears. If it was any other GOP candidate facing four indictments, even good, solid, traditional conservatives, they would have suspended their campaign and the GOP base would have moved on in an open field. In addition, he is referring to the progressives who are getting upset at Joe Biden for considering border security to get both Israel and Ukraine aid wth efforts to help improve the border. Those details are still being negotiated. In the meantime, the GOP ousted the Speaker for, gasp, compromising with Democrats to keep the government running. And some, including you, were happy that McCarthy was ousted. I call that irony. Even now, the hard right is upset because the new Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, is keeping the FISA searches in the MDAA bill, something that has bipartisan support BTW. Again, compromise. And the hard right is far more vocal about this than the progressives are.

 

My point is that they aren't acting like it because A. they really don't believe it. And B, the destruction of the country via anarchic riots is of more importance than anything else.

 

Well I agree that the people who are running the party likely don't believe it, but the rank-in-file, like the progressives who post here, absolutely believe it 100%.

 

I think border security is worse for the Democrat party than Donald Trump is.

Donald Trump is a distraction.

To be secure the border then sure illegal aliens won't be able to sneak in and understand that sanctuary cities and sanctuary States get to count these people in their senses polls and get to use this to Levy for more representation.

That's all it's about oh and cheap Labor they like that too.

 

But they aren't the ones setting policy.

 

Well that's true.

 

Oh great, you found someone with an opinion.

'falling apart' implies failing. I don't agree with that contention whatsoever. Factions within the left disagree with each other on some things, as they always have, but as a voting block, they usually get together to fight the opposition, as we did in 2020. I think what Teixeira is doing is confusing the normal difference of opinions with 'falling apart'.

The claim that progressive Democrats are adamantly opposed to making any compromise on border security as part of a deal, particularly in the context of aid to Ukraine and Israel, is not entirely accurate. The situation is more nuanced and involves a range of positions within the Democratic Party, including those of progressive members.

Recent reports indicate that a growing number of Senate Democrats, including some who are considered progressive, appear open to making it harder for migrants to seek asylum in order to secure Republican support for aiding Ukraine and Israel. This shows a willingness to consider changes in border policy, even among some traditionally progressive senators. However, it's also noted that there is resistance within the party to these changes, and the negotiations have been complex and challenging.

The discussions around linking a bipartisan border deal with new Ukraine aid have been unraveling partly because most Democrats never wanted this negotiation in the first place. Key House factions like the Progressive and Hispanic Caucuses signaled opposition to any immigration policy changes in a foreign aid bill, showing a division within the party on this issue.

Furthermore, there are progressive Democrats like Senator Sherrod Brown who, while typically aligning with more progressive stances, have shown willingness to consider moderate proposals on immigration in light of the current border situation. This indicates that even among progressives, there are varying opinions on how to handle border security and immigration reform.

Therefore, while there is resistance among some progressive Democrats to certain border security measures, the party's stance is not uniformly opposed to compromise. The situation reflects a complex array of opinions and strategies within the Democratic Party regarding border security and its linkage to foreign aid.

 

Well if there is actual movement within the Democratic Party leadership to bend a little on immigration, that would be a killshot into GOP electoral chances next year, since immigration has recently become one of those issues that is cutting across party lines among the rank and file (not the party establishment itself). The difference between the border under Trump and Biden is a shocking difference.

I guess we will see if they can actually agree to real compromise on the issue. I would guess no, because I can't see the activists allowing Democrats to compromise on that without some major compromises from Republicans (like some sort of amnesty). But this isn't an issue that the GOP needs to compromise on since the albatross of immigration is around the Democrats necks, not the Republicans.

 

The problem is as many people don’t want Biden reelected as don’t want Trump to regain the white house. For most Americans this is a rematch made in hell. 59% of all Americans don’t want Biden to run again, 55% don’t want Trump to run again either. Questions 14 and 15. Hence, neither major party are listening to most Americans. To put it bluntly, both major parties are telling most Americans to stick it where the sun don’t shine.


https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_3GgK6Vy.pdf


Then look at how all Americans view these two presumptive candidates. 39.8% of all Americans have a positive or favorable view of Biden, 55.6% unfavorable or negative. All Americans have a 40.4% favorable/positive view of him, 55.6 negative.


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/biden_favorableunfavorable-6677.html


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/trump_favorableunfavorable-5493.html


I don’t think it so much the issues where the non-affiliated, the less to non-partisan swing voters that make this upcoming election a 50-50 shot. It’s the candidates. There’s no doubt most Americans don’t want Trump again, the same is said of Biden. It seems to me if the democrats were serious, really believed in their rhetoric of Trump destroying democracy, being a fascist, will become a dictator or is out to destroy the world, they’d come up with a better candidate. One more liked by all Americans than Biden is. If one can find polls that offer more than two choices, polls that include independents and third-party candidates, they show around 20% of all Americans stating they vote third party against both Trump and Biden. Here’s an example, all Americans Trump 41%, Biden 35%, RFK Jr. 16%, West 4%. But if one looks at independents, the persuadable, it’s Biden 26%, Trump 30%, RFK Jr. 29%, West 9%, other 2%.


https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/24130797/cnn-poll-on-2024.pdf


The WSJ polls had this: Biden 31%, Trump 37%, RFK Jr. 8%, No Labels Manchin, 3%, West 3%, Stein 2%, Libertarian 1%. That’s 17% of all Americans stating they’ll vote third party.


https://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/WSJ_Poll_Dec_2023.pdf


It’s all about the candidates.

 

I think it's important to step back from the political horserace and consider what is best for the American People. In your framing, More Democrats coming to their senses on immigration would be a good thing.

Arizona's Democrat Governor Demands $512 Million Reimbursement From Biden For Border Security 'Failure'

'She also wants the National Guard deployed to the worst-affected areas...'

'"For far too long, Arizona has continued to bear the burden of federal inaction in managing our southern border," she wrote in the letter. "The recent decision to close the Lukeville Port of Entry has led to an unmitigated humanitarian crisis in the area and has put Arizona's safety and commerce at risk."'

'"[The] Tucson Sector is leading in encounters and our agents and officers are overrun and undermanned," he wrote, adding "The situation is far past a breaking point and those on the frontlines of this crisis are in need of immediate support."'

'In a joint statement with Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ), Hobbs denounced the Biden administration's decision to shutter the Lukeville Port of Entry.'

'"This is an unacceptable outcome that further destabilizes our border, risks the safety of our communities, and damages our economy by disrupting trade and tourism," reads the statement. "The Federal Government must act swiftly to maintain port of entry operations, get the border under control, keep Arizona communities safe'

Bribed Joe can't get anything right. We want an orderly border, that facilitates the legal entry and departure of folks while barring illegal entry of people, terrorists, fentanyl, and human trafficking.

Bribed Joe stung by criticism of his border open to illegal activity, in an act of spite closed it entirely at this crossing, creating yet a disaster. He lurches from one disaster to the next pissing off and inconveniencing everyone.

 

I don't think it should all be just about the border,

maybe war should have a place on the agenda?

For war starting Trump started zero wars and let sleeping dogs lie in the
case of Afghanistan. Biden kicked the low-key civil war he helped start in 2014
in Ukraine into a big hot war when the dems got in in 2021. And he's shipping
weapons to the ME for killing anyone who happens to be in Palestine. So
maybe we can say:

Trump 0, Biden 2 wars

so far...

 

there are two albatrosses, one for each party

Dems got immigration
Repubs got abortion.

Personally, I think moderates, independents and liberals will be influenced by the abortion issue.

Repubs and MAGA will be influenced by immigration.

In other words, I think Dems have the advantage.

 

"Most Democrats never wanted this negotiation in the first place." And well, my friends there's your answer. The National Security of Ukraine is more important than OUR national security. That's the state of the American Government.

 

The Polls disagree with you. That's what Texiera a Democrat is getting exercised about.

 

I mentioned nothing about polls. Off point.

 

You should have. The democrats general 70 -30 lead now appears to be a dead heat and some polls show it worse, much worse.Obama's 90 point lead among African Americans now sits at 60 points. You are losing support among Jews it's unlikely they'll vote Trump but if they sit home or vote green party combined with the previous defections places Joe in danger of being on the wrong side of a massive land slide.

 

Off topic to the point.

 

But everything to do with
texiara point to which you responded. And about all Republicans have to do is point that no one is actually trying to end abortion. Even the most restricted laws still give a woman a month and a half to decide on an abortion the Majority nearly four months.and most Americans aren't on board with the up to the moment of birth standard the Democrats champion.

 

Trump also destroyed ISIS and secured the border. The two years after Trump destroyed ISIS were the most peaceful for this nation since 9/11 and of course the warmongers couldn't tolerate that.

The open borders, as well as the anti-colonialist hate, and if you think about it, these issues are linked, are putting pressure on the Left's Coalition Of The Aggrieved.

Democrat Governor Toured the Border as She Demands Federal Aid from Biden



'Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs, a Democrat, is currently seeing record numbers of illegal immigrants flood in.'

'The epicenter of illegal immigration is in Lukeville, Arizona. The situation has gotten so bad that the legal port of entry there was closed a week ago. Governor Hobbs is demanding help from the federal government. She is considering sending the Arizona National Guard. Sending the National Guard should be a no-brainer. It seems like that should have been done when a busy port of entry was closed.'

'She called the situation chaos. She taped a video in front of the border wall in Lukeville. She posted it on social media with a plea to the federal government to reopen the Lukeville port of entry along with her request that the state be reimbursed for the costs incurred in dealing with illegal immigration.'

This was all under control under Trump, and Bribed Joe immediately destroyed Trump's good work and reopened the border to sex trafficking, fentanyl, and illegal workers.

 

While the media keeps up their drumbeat of how TheDemocratsAreDoomed, The Democrats keep winning elections. I'm good with that.

Remember 2022, and the entire MSM spending the preceding year proclaiming how a red wave was imminent? We saw haw that turned out.

Being owned by very conservative people, the media loves to run down Democrats. Had a Republican president been as wildly successful as Biden, the media would be demanding their face be carved into Mt. Rushmore.

 

This is the first time that I can recall that Democrats have been actually paying a price for their open borders and sanctuary rhetoric.