Where Is The “Climate Emergency”?

The long running thread builds up the well proven theme that there is NO Climate Emergency brewing which is well supported by the evidence presented in post after post and this is a rare thread where warmist/alarmists avoid it because they KNOW they can't counter them as their lies gets a beat down by cold hard numbers.

 

Ten climate claims debunked:
Climate Fact Check: March 2023 Edition
Guest Blogger
Ten pieces of climate propaganda from March 2023 exposed and debunked. . . .

 

Treasure the warmth.
History and Human Biology Argue for Warmth, Not Cold
Guest Blogger
So, it is no wonder that civilizations flourished when temperatures were higher, especially when home heating was primitive or nonexistent. . . .

 

Scientists Employ Wit To Highlight The Lack of Climate Trends Across Greece Since The 1800s
By Kenneth Richard on 1. May 2023

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The accumulation of over two centuries of precipitation records across Greece indicates there have been overall slightly declining trends in precipitation extremes across the region and “negligible climate variability.” This supports a new study’s tongue-in-cheek title referencing a “404 Not Found” climate crisis.
Eight scientists have published a new study examining the popularized conceptualization of an anthropogenically-induced climate change that has increasingly become “the post-modern scapegoat for which every disaster is blamed.” The authors point out, for example, that even the 2020-2021 COVID-19 pandemic has been blamed on a human-caused warming climate.

The study utilizes detailed precipitation data available for Greece, as these climate records often extend to the early 1800s.

The scientists tendentiously searched for climate-related (i.e., 30+ years) trends that might confirm there is a “climate emergency, climate crisis, etc.” in the works linked to an anthropogenic influence.

However, no trend consistent with any anthropogenic climate influence could be found in the records. Hence, the wit-intended “404 Not Found” study title (which one of the 3 peer-reviewers recommended be kept in the final publication rather than discarded).

“The current period can be characterized as normal without notable climatic events.”

“The overall period does not show a linear trend or appreciable difference in the two 30-year climate periods.”

“…precipitation did not linearly change during the past 7 decades.”

Analyses of precipitation extremes may even support a “decreasing, albeit slightly” trend over the two centuries, as the record average and maximum rainfall depths occurred in the 1800s or early 1900s.



Image Source: Koutsoyiannis et al., 2023
In anticipation of the timeworn, “But Greece is not the globe!” criticism, it should be noted that comprehensive analysis of global-scale precipitation data in the satellite era also do not support detection of intensifying trends associated with the timing of the sharp rise in anthropogenic CO2 emissions or a warming climate.



Image Source: Nguyen et al., 2018

 

New Study: Warmer Temperatures Associated With A Reduction In Storms, High Winds
By Kenneth Richard on 11. May 2023

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The claim that rising global surface temperatures will induce more storm activity is contradicted by observations.
Scientists reporting on the contrasting albedo effects of clouds in the Northern vs. Southern Hemispheres (Blanco et al., 2023) assess clouds have a “profound” effect on the global radiation budget and thus our climate.

The Southern Hemisphere is cloudier than the Northern Hemisphere at the same latitudes, and hence the sea surface temperatures are colder.

In contrast to the claim that warmer temperatures fuel more storms and stronger winds, cloud-albedo-induced colder temperatures are viewed as a trigger (“cloud-controlling factor”) for the stronger Southern Hemisphere’s wind speeds and storm tracks.

This is the opposite of what is claimed by proponents of anthropogenic global warming, as it implies we get fewer or less intense storms as the surface warms.



Image Source: Blanco et al., 2023

. . . .

 

Dutch-Led Network Of International Experts Finds “Serious Errors” In Latest IPCC Report
By P Gosselin on 12. May 2023

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The UN Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change (IPCC) is misleading policy makers by focusing on an implausible worst-case emissions scenarios, concludes a new analysis report published by the Clintel Foundation: “The Frozen Climate Views of the IPCC“



The IPCC is hiding the good news about disaster losses and climate-related deaths and wrongly claims the estimate of climate sensitivity is above 2.5°C. Also errors in the AR6 report are worse than those that led to the IAC Review in 2010. concludes the report by The Climate Intelligence Foundation (Clintel), which was founded in 2019 by emeritus professor of geophysics Guus Berkhout and science journalist Marcel Crok.

Opposite of IPCC claims likely true

Another result: The IPCC ignored crucial peer-reviewed literature showing that normalized disaster losses have decreased since 1990 and that human mortality due to extreme weather decreased by more than 95% since 1920.

Clintel accuses the IPCC of cherry picking from the literature to claim increases in damage and mortality due to anthropogenic climate change, when in fact the opposite is likely true.

Rewrote climate history

The Clintel report is 180 pages long and the first serious international ‘assessment of the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report. In 13 chapters the Clintel report shows the IPCC rewrote climate history, and emphasizes an implausible worst-case scenario, favoring bad news and ignoring good news.

“The strategy of the IPCC seems to be to hide any good news about climate change and to hype anything bad,” reported the Clintel press release.

The errors and biases that Clintel documents in the report are far worse than those that led to the investigation of the IPCC by the Interacademy Councel (IAC Review) in 2010. Clintel believes that the IPCC should reform, or be dismantled.

Clintel is a network of international scientists who analyzed several claims from the Working Group 1 (The Physical Science Basis)
and Working Group 2 (Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability) reports. This led to the latest report: “The Frozen Climate Views of the IPCC”.

IPCC ignores 97% of all papers

Clintel explains how the IPCC ignored 52 out of 53 peer reviewed papers dealing with “normalized disaster losses” and found no increase in harms that could be attributed to climate change. Yet, the IPCC highlighted the single paper that claimed an increase in losses.

Cherrypicking, rewriting history

The IPCC also has tried to rewrite climate history by erasing the existence of the so-called Holocene Thermal Maximum (or Holocene Climate
Optimum), a warm period between 10,000 and 6000 years ago, and has introduced a new hockey stick graph, which is the result of cherry-picked proxies. The IPCC ignores temperature reconstructions that show more variability in the past, such as the well-documented Little Ice Age.

In its recent report, the IPCC also has grossly exaggerated sea level rise and CO2’s ability to warm the earth’s atmosphere and thus appears to have remained ‘addicted’ to its highest emissions scenario, so-called RCP8.5, which in recent years has been shown by several published papers to be implausible and thus should not be used for policy purposes.

Severely biased

“We are sorry to conclude that the IPCC has done a poor job of assessing the scientific literature,” the Clintel scientists report. “In our view the IPCC should be reformed, and should include a broader range of views. Inviting scientists with different views, such as Roger Pielke Jr and Ross McKitrick, to participate more actively in the process is a necessary first step.”

If the inclusion of other views does not permitted, then the IPCC should be dismantled, the scientists say.

Reality: Future is far less bleak

“Our own conclusions about climate – based on the same underlying literature – are far less bleak. Due to increasing wealth and advancing technology, humanity is largely immune to climate change and can easily cope with it. Global warming is far less dangerous to humanity
than the IPCC tells us.”

Clintel also published the World Climate Declaration, which has now been signed by more than 1500 scientists and experts. Its central message is “there is no climate emergency”.

Clintel press release here.

 

Lol. Why don't I want to give these guys my email address...

 

Another New Study Shows The Siberian Arctic Is Warmer When CO2 Is Low And Colder As CO2 Rises
By Kenneth Richard on 22. May 2023

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In the last 25,000 years there has been an anti-correlation between rising CO2 and the Siberian Arctic temperature – the opposite of what is claimed by proponents of the anthropogenic global warming narrative.
According to a new study, Arctic Siberia was 4°C warmer than it is today from 15,000 to 11,000 years ago, when CO2 was ~240 ppm.



Image Source: Martens et al., 2023

 

Because you might learn something useful?

 

New Study Destroys ‘Doomsday Glacier’ Narrative…Today’s Ice 8 Times ℎ Than Last 8000 Years
By Kenneth Richard on 29. May 2023

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Scientists have determined there is no measured data to “indicate thicker than present ice after 4ka” at a West Antarctic study site near the Thwaites “Doomsday” Glacier. Any ice melt observed today is thus “reversible”… and natural.
The Thwaites, Pine Island, and Pope Glaciers in the Amundsen Sea region of West Antarctica are all situated on a hotbed of active geothermal heat flux, which has led to anomalously high regional melt rates. Indeed, “there is a conspicuously large amount of heat from Earth’s interior beneath the ice” in the very locations where the ice melt is most pronounced.

While the Earth’s crust has an average thickness of about 40 km, in the Thwaites-Pine Island-Pope Glacier region the anomalously thinner crust (10 to 18 km) more readily exposes the base of the ice to 580°C tectonic trenches. The “elevated geothermal heat flow band is interpreted as caused by an anomalously thin crust underlain by a hot mantle,” which is exerting a “profound influence on the flow dynamics of the Western Antarctic Ice Sheet” (Dziadek et al., 2021).

Despite the established natural causes of ice melt this region (see also Schroeder et al., 2014, Loose et al., 2018), it has nonetheless become commonplace for those who believe human behaviors are the climate’s “control knob” to claim the melting of the Thwaites Glacier – dubbed the “Doomsday Glacier” by alarmists – is caused by humans driving gasoline-powered trucks or using natural gas for energy.

But a new study categorically undermines claims that the ice melt occurring in the Thwaites-Pine Island-Pope Glacier region is unusual, unprecedented, or unnatural.

The thickness of the ice sheet at this Amundsen Sea region site averages about 40 m today.

Scientists (Balco et al., 2023) have used cosmogenic-nuclide concentrations and bedrock cores to determine the ice sheet is presently around 8 times thicker than it was for most of the last 8,000 years of the Holocene, when the ice thickness ranged between 2 m and 7 m.

“…the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) at a site between Thwaites and Pope glaciers was at least 35m thinner than present in the past several thousand years”



Image Source: Balco et al., 2023

 

Thwaites ‘Doomsday’ Glacier Narrative Collapses…Total Melt Raises Sea Levels 1-2 mm, Not 3048 mm
By Kenneth Richard on 1. June 2023

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“[N]o numerical modeling work has shown that Thwaites Glacier is currently undergoing an irreversible retreat.” – Gudmundsson et al., 2023
It was only months ago that mainstream US journalists published articles claiming the Thwaites “Doomsday” Glacier has only “a few more years” until it collapses into the sea (ABC News, CBS News).

This “spine-chilling” catastrophe with “global implications” would, it was claimed, raise sea levels by the equivalent of 10 feet, or 3,048 mm.

Image Source: ABC News, CBS News
But per a study (Gudmundsson et al., 2023) published online yesterday, scientists need to consider the buttressing of the ice shelves (affecting ice flow into the ocean itself), as this significantly impacts estimates of ice-melt contributions to sea level rise.

Instead of 3,048 mm (10 feet) of sea level rise contribution from the complete removal of Thwaites, the authors assessed it would be closer to a “negligibly small” 1-2 mm over the next 50 to 100 years. In other words, the notorious “Doomsday” glacier is doomless, with “no discernible effect” associated with future mass losses.

The authors even go on to say that there is no modeling work showing Thwaites Glacier is “currently undergoing an irreversible retreat,” and there is “no reason to expect a possible disintegration of the [Thwaites] ice shelf to meaningfully impact SLR [sea level rise] projections.”

One of the more commonly-cited alarmist claims has just been bushwhacked.



Image Source: Gudmundsson et al., 2023

 

This doesn't fit the climate crisis narrative.
Antarctic Ice Shelves Growing
Charles Rotter
Our observations show that Antarctic ice shelves gained 661 Gt of ice mass over the past decade, whereas the steady-state approach would estimate substantial ice loss over the same period, demonstrating…

 

Surprise: Hurricane Activity Reconstructions Show Greater Storm Frequency When Globe Was Cold
By P Gosselin on 4. June 2023

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Climate science gets violently shaken up! Sediment core analyses show hurricanes were more frequent when the globe was cool, during the Little Ice Age.

Germany’s “klimanachtrichten” (climate news) here reports on surprise findings concerning hurricanes frequency. It turns out hurricanes were more frequent during the Little Ice Age, when global temperatures were a degree colder, than they are today.

This finding contradicts the climate science claim that global warming cooks up more hurricanes.

The data show the opposite to be true.

The active Little Ice Age

Despite all the drama and hysteria we hear from the media every time a hurricane makes landfall, hurricane activity reconstructions using sediment cores show that hurricanes were indeed more frequent during the Little Ice Age and that their activity follows decadal cycles – as reported by The Conversation, November, 2022:



Image cropped at klimanachrichten.de here.

Hurricanes were more frequent during the Little Ice Age than they have been over the past 100 years:


Summary: Image cropped at klimanachrichten.de here.

Colder periods associated with more hurricanes.

This would tell us there’s much more complexity behind hurricane formation than simple the CO2 mechanism in the atmosphere. It’s much more complex than what alarmists scientists, governments and media claim.

In fact, the results contradict what we’ve been told all along. To the contrary, warmer periods don’t mean more hurricanes and it appears that colder periods are associated with greater hurricane frequency.

 

GoreBull Warming is silly. And I have saved a lot of cats. Life is just fine.

They say the sun will explode one day too.

I don't worry about that either.

 

Climate fearmongering reaches stratospheric heights
June 5th, 2023

A new paper by Santer et al. provocatively entitled “Exceptional stratospheric contribution to human fingerprints on atmospheric temperature” goes where no serious climate scientist should go: it has conflated stratospheric cooling with global warming.

The paper starts out summarizing the supposed importance of their work, which is worth quoting in its entirety (bold emphasis added):

“Differences between tropospheric and lower stratospheric temperature trends have long been recognized as a “fingerprint” of human effects on climate. This fingerprint, however, neglected information from the mid to upper stratosphere, 25 to 50 km above the Earth’s surface. Including this information improves the detectability of a human fingerprint by a factor of five. Enhanced detectability occurs because the mid to upper stratosphere has a large cooling signal from human-caused CO2 increases, small noise levels of natural internal variability, and differing signal and noise patterns. Extending fingerprinting to the upper stratosphere with long temperature records and improved climate models means that it is now virtually impossible for natural causes to explain satellite-measured trends in the thermal structure of the Earth’s atmosphere.“

The authors are taking advantage of the public’s lack of knowledge concerning the temperature effect of increasing CO2 in the atmosphere, making it sound like stratospheric cooling is part of the fingerprint of global warming.

It isn’t. Cooling is not warming.

The researchers’ first mistake is to claim they are reporting something new. They aren’t. Observed stratospheric cooling, even in the middle and upper stratosphere, has been reported on for many years (e.g. here). Lower stratospheric cooling has been evident in our Lower Stratosphere (LS) temperature product for over 30 years (first published here). Why haven’t we heard about this before in the news? Because it has virtually nothing to do with the subject of global warming and associated climate change. . . .

 

OH NO! Not GoreBull Warming AGAIN!

 

Here it is:

 

Yeah, that was a little abrupt, sorry. Fact is that ice extent for 2022-2023 is well within the band for the past several years. There is no indiction of systematic reduction.

 

Just part of the increasingly hysterical attempt to promote activists' agenda.
Climate fearmongering reaches stratospheric heights
Charles Rotter
entitling such a paper “Exceptional stratospheric contribution to human fingerprints on atmospheric temperature” is essentially a non sequitur on the issue of global warming. . . .

 

It’s time you deniers woke up to the reality of climate change.

“Reduction”??? You apparently didn’t examine my post or the link in it. 2022-2023 is irrelevant, as is “reduction”. And WTF do you mean “systematic”? I think you meant “systemic” but didn’t know the difference. sheesh

And just FYI, I no longer have a stake in it. The article says we will see the first case of zero Arctic sea ice in 7 years. That’s about the time I expect I’ll be checking out of this life if my family history holds. In any case, I’ll soon be gone leaving no family behind, no one I care about but my wife who will soon follow me, and what happens here will be nonexistent to me. So this planet can go ahead and heat to 400°F for all I care. Yet it remains that you deniers are wrong as can be.

 

It's think you climate Chicken Littles start looking at facts instead of swallowing every turd your masters drop

Assuming the article is accurate which I've shown is not the case - arctic ice is within long term normal band.

 

It has you some on what you huh?

Except that the prediction is for the first ice-free Arctic to be in SEVEN YEARS.

And you seem to think you know more than scientists who have dedicated their careers to this study. I accept science. You accept a few nay-sayers who have been shown to be bought off. Real bright.

 

The end of Arctic ice was originally predicted for 2012. That nonsense is now rightfully in the "Boy who cried wolf" file.
Shades of Zwally – Vision Prize calls for 'ice free Arctic' predictions – cast your vote
11 years ago

Anthony Watts


People send me stuff. Today, just over two months away from the end of summer, when NASA’s Jay Zwally famously predicted (with an assist from AP’s Seth Borenstein): “…the Arctic…