Where Is The “Climate Emergency”?

That's my admonition to anti-fossil-fuel hysteria mongers who deny that climate continues to change naturally and cyclically.

As such "articles" have been claiming for >30 years...

That's the problem with ignoring natural cycles: you end up thinking that because June is warmer than January, October will be even hotter.

The real "deniers" are those who deny the fact that climate continues to change naturally and cyclically, much as it has for thousands of years.

Two simple questions:
Why is June warmer than January in the Northern Hemisphere?
Why is July warmer than June?
If you can answer those questions correctly, you will have the basic knowledge to think about climate change. If not, not.

 

Then get back to me in seven years.

. LOL, that's called an appeal to authority logical fallacy. I'm not making this up; it comes from Cllimatologists and other scientists just as knowledgable and competent is those you're climbing

 

Government grants enable folks to make a career out of GoreBull Warming. Say what the environmentalists want said and the greenie Biden administration will send you a grant... send you money... that's what's driving this train.

 

I predict it won't happen (unless the sun becomes more active than it has ever been in history). My prediction will be proved objectively correct.

So do you. Just different ones.

No, you uncritically accept unscientific claims of science that are in fact nonscience.

No such thing has been shown. I base my conclusions on objectively determinable facts, not the word of any authority.

So far, my predictions have come true, and those of the anti-fossil-fuel doomsayers have not.

 

wow. You have a real problem with managing a keyboard. Maybe it’s combined with a real problem spelling and proofreading too.

 

Which is not news to any informed person because the greenhouse effect of CO2 is much greater in the stratosphere, where there is very little water vapor. It just doesn't affect the earth's surface temperature.

Right. Because the stratosphere is extremely cold, it is extremely dry (water vapor all condenses out in the upper troposphere), and the greenhouse effect of CO2 is consequently much greater than near the earth's surface where the effect of water vapor is many times greater. But this change just increases the altitude and reduces the temperature of final IR escape to space, and cannot significantly affect the earth's surface temperature: to the extent that the change can propagate downwards, it just runs into water vapor in the lower troposphere and stops. It's a case of, "What happens in the stratosphere stays in the stratosphere."

 

If that's all you got I accept your concession.

 

Arctic Ice: A History of Failed Predictions
Charles Rotter
Decades of failed predictions about the end of Arctic sea ice should prompt us to view these new findings with a critical eye . . .

 

Good Climate News: Wildfire Trends Have Fallen Off Significantly Over The Recent Decades
By P Gosselin on 10. June 2023

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Wildfires, very much in the news recently, have tapered downward significantly over the recent decades, contradicting the doom and gloom spread by climate alarmists and media.

German science editor Axel Bojanowski posted a chart at Twitter depicting the annual global total wildfire carbon emissions in metric tonnes since 2003:



Wild fire emissions have trended down globally over the past 20 years. That’s good news, which however we never get to hear in the mainscream media.

Canada

Mr. Bojanowski also posted data on Canadian forest fires, where here as well we seen no alarming overall trend at all:



Also climate science critic and alarmism debunker Tony Heller also recently showed that wildfire acreage burned in the USA has fallen dramatically since the early 20th century:

 

No, BBC, Flight Turbulence Is NOT a Worsening Problem in Global Aviation
AIR TURBULENCE JUNE 16, 2023

 

Wildfires And Climate Change: Narrative Ever More Detached From Actual Evidence
June 16, 2023/ Francis Menton

• 
  Here in New York during the past couple of weeks, we had some days where the air was rather incredibly smoky. At times, you could barely see the Empire State Building from where I live (about one mile).
  
  
• The smoke was said to originate from wildfires in the Canadian forests, mostly in Quebec but some farther West.
  
  
• Getting such a large amount of smoke around here from wildfires in Canada is quite unusual. Indeed, I can’t remember it happening previously, at least to this extent. So something must be different.
  
  
• Could this all be the result of — CLIMATE CHANGE????!!!!
  

READ MORE

 

June 18, 2023
The Real Story About a "Melting" Mount Rainier[/paste:font]

As many readers of the blog know, I often provide a reality check for over-the-top and often inaccurate Seattle Times articles dealing with climate change.

It is unfortunate that the Seattle Times has moved to an advocacy role on the issue of climate change, often exaggerating the effects of global warming. They often fail to provide reliable information to their readers on this important topic.

In yesterday's online paper, they had a front-page story written by their columnist, Danny Westneat: Mount Rainier is melting. Can anything be done to stop it?

As you can imagine, they are talking about the glaciers on Mt. Rainier. The story references a new "piercing" National Park Service report and talks about the substantial reduction in glacier ice volume.


The message in the article is clear: Rainier's glaciers are now rapidly retreating and that human CO2 emissions are the cause. We need to act now.

"It’s climate change before your eyes."

"We’ve really got to focus on how we emit carbon into the air.”

This is a very deceptive article designed to convince us that a signature aspect of our region is being lost due to human carbon emissions. . . . .

 

Another consensus fail.
New Study: 21st Century Precipitation Trends Have Become Less Intense Globally
By Kenneth Richard on 19. June 2023

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Yet another instance of the models getting it wrong.


Hydrological processes were expected to intensify with warming. The opposite has happened.
·
Per a new study, global precipitation intensity, measured in mm/hour per century, has exhibited flat (large precipitation systems) to declining (medium and small systems) trends from 2001 to 2020.


Image Source: Zhang et al., 2023
The de-intensification of the hydrological cycle has also been documented for the second half of the 20th century.

The highest frequency of global-scale extreme rainfall events occurred from 1960-1980 − when there were concerns about cooling.

Since then, the frequency and intensity of rainfall events have “decreased remarkably” (Koutsoyiannis, 2020).



Image Source: Koutsoyiannis, 2020

 

Wrong, CNN, Attribution Groups Prove Nothing About Extreme Weather and Climate Change
ALARMIST MESSENGERS/CLAIMS JUNE 22, 2023
A recent article on CNN relies on the opinion of climate attribution groups, claiming that these groups are able to calculate exactly how much impact climate change has had on various weather events. These claims are always false. Attribution claims are unverifiable, untestable, and rely on the presupposition that climate change did make an individual weather event more severe.

The article, “Without climate change, these extreme weather events would not have happened,” relies on the testimony of the World Weather Attribution Initiative, whose members assert that climate change is indeed making weather events more severe, or severe weather more likely. The CNN post goes on to claim that extreme weather like “droughts, storms, wildfires, and heat waves” are becoming more intense and frequent.

But this is false, as Climate at a Glance shows: the data isn’t clear about whether droughts are becoming more intense according to the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; storms like hurricanes and tornadoes show no increasing trend; wildfire data in the U.S. indicates forest policy has more to do with them than warming does; and heat anomalies, especially in the United States, show no increasing trend. . . . .

 

New Study Finds Russian Sea Levels Were 7-9 Meters Higher Than Today From 8000-4000 Years Ago
By Kenneth Richard on 26. June 2023

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The belief that modern sea levels and sea level change rates are unprecedentedly high takes another hit.
Per a new study, sea levels were ~9.5 m higher than today about 8000 years ago (White Sea, northwestern Russia), then fell to ~7 m higher than today by around 4000 years ago.

From that point in the Middle Holocene, the sea levels plummeted (by 7 m) to the present. Today’s sea levels are likely the lowest since the last glaciation in this region.

Early Holocene sea level change rates ranged from 35 to 100 mm per year. Compare this to the 1.56 mm per year change rates experienced from 1900-2018 (Frederikse et al., 2020).



Image Source: Kublitskiy et al., 2023
This study (Kublitskiy et al., 2023) also reveals the modern sea ice coverage in this region is the highest it has been (~4 mo./year duration) in the last 6000 years. There were Holocene centuries (e.g., the Roman and Medieval Warm Periods) when this region was sea-ice free year-round (~0 mo./year).



Image Source: Kublitskiy et al., 2023

 

New Study Finds The Early-Mid Holocene Sahara Had Lakes With Depths Of ‘At Least 300 Meters’
By Kenneth Richard on 29. June 2023

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“During the Holocene, African tropical and subtropical areas experienced extreme climatic variations.” – Yacoub et al., 2023
From ~10,000 to 5000 years ago the modern hyperarid central Sahara was green and teeming with an abundance of lakes, tropical trees, grasslands, and animal species.
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The central Sahara’s lake depths were in some cases (the Trou at Natron) “at least 300 m” high (Yacoub et al., 2023).
Then, ~5000 years ago, the Sahara abruptly (within centuries) became hyperarid, lifeless. The transition has been attributed to falling insolation (i.e., cooling) and associated decreases in precipitation and a dramatic shift in the monsoonal rainfall belt.


Image Source: Yacoub et al., 2023

 

Check Your Facts, Yahoo News and New York Times, Neither Canadian Wildfires nor Heatwaves Are Getting Worse
DROUGHT JULY 5, 2023

 

No, CNN, Climate Isn’t the Cause of Excess Deaths in Europe
MORTALITY JULY 7, 2023

 

Food for thought.
Musings on Forest Fires, Fuel Load, Dr. Ehrlich and the CO2Fertilization Effect Upon U. S. Forests
Guest Blogger
The CO2 fertilization effect is both real and substantial in both beneficial and harmful ways. . . .

 

"Doctor Ehrlich's Magic Bullet"... wonderful Edward G. Robinson movie!!!

 

2022 Nobel Prize Winner: “Climate Science has Metastasised into … Pseudoscience”
Eric Worrall
Physicist Dr John Clauser, joint recipient of the 2022 Nobel Prize in Physics, has slammed the climate crisis as “pseudoscience”.

NOBEL LAUREATE: “CLIMATE SCIENCE HAS METASTASIZED INTO MASSIVE SHOCK-JOURNALISTIC PSEUDOSCIENCE”

Dr. John F. Clauser, joint recipient of the 2022 Nobel Prize in Physics, has criticized the climate emergency narrative calling it “a dangerous corruption of science that threatens the world’s economy and the well-being of billions of people.”

Along with two others, Dr Clauser, an experimental and theoretical physicist, was the 2022 recipient of the Nobel Prize for work done in the 1970s that showed “quantum entanglement” allowed particles such as photons, effectively, to interact at great distances, seemingly to require communication exceeding the speed of light.

He has criticized the awarding of the 2021 Nobel Prize for work in the development of computer models predicting global warming, according to a coalition of scientists and commentators who argue that an informed discussion about CO2 would recognise its importance in sustaining plant life.

In a statement issued by the CO2 coalition, Nobel Laureate John Clauser Elected to CO2 Coalition Board of Directors – CO2 Coalition Dr. Clauser said that “there is no climate crisis and that increasing CO2 concentrations will benefit the world.”

 

New Study Finds Greenland’s 1929-’31 Temps, Ice Extent, Snow Line ‘Comparable’ To Recent Decades
By Kenneth Richard on 17. July 2023

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Greenland’s climate and ice/snow volume have not been cooperating with the anthropogenic global warming narrative.
The 1929-1931 Wegener expedition real-world observations reveal Greenland temperatures, ice extent were then “of a comparable magnitude” to recent decades (Abermann et al., 2023).

The 1930 snow line was higher (more melt) than the 2000-2020 average, “similar” to the record 2012 melt year.



Image Source: Abermann et al., 2023

 

Greece’s Fires: A Human Act, Not Climate Change Catastrophe
Charles Rotter
It’s become clear that it's human agency that’s the root cause of most of these fires. . . .

 

Two More Studies Indicate Mid-Holocene Sea Levels Were 2-6 Meters Higher Than Present
By Kenneth Richard on 31. July 2023

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The belief that modern sea levels are unprecedentedly high takes another hit.
In southern South America sea levels were ~6 meters higher than today from 8000-6000 years ago, when CO2 hovered around 265 ppm but it was much warmer with less ice. Sea levels then gradually fell to present levels, the lowest in 8000 years.

“This sea level curve suggests that the LGM lowstand sea level occurred at ~18 ka BP at ~105 m below present sea level. The onset of the marine transgression resulted in rapid sea‐level rise in the Early Holocene, with a highstand of ~6 m above present between 8 and 6 ka BP, followed by a progressive fall to its present position.” – Desiage et al., 2023



Image Source: Desiage et al., 2023
Relative sea level on the coasts of Japan was approximately 2-5 meters higher than today during the Mid-Holocene, then fell to 1 to 1.5 meters higher than today during the Medieval Warm Period before continuing falling to present levels.

“It is known that RSL was higher than today in the mid-Holocene ‘far-field’, remote from the sites of former glaciation and subsequent isostatic rebound (Yokoyama et al., 2012, 2019a; Yokoyama and Purcell, 2021). This far-field elevation is known as the mid-Holocene sea-level highstand (HHS). … The RSL in the Harutachi area at 6000 years ago is estimated to be 0.5–2.5 m asl [above present sea level] (Okuno et al., 2014). … In Utoma, sea regression began around 3.5 kyr cal BP and the altitude of the local HHS is reported to be 2–3 m asl (Nakanishi et al., 2020a). In the Shizunai area, the HHS period continued until ∼4.0 kyr cal BP, when the sea level at that time was 4–5 m asl before falling to 1.0–1.5 m asl at 1.5–1.0 kyr cal BP (Nakanishi et al., 2022a).” – Nakanishi et al., 2023



Image Source: Nakanishi et al., 2023

 

Oceans Retain Methane: New ‘Nature’ Study Finds Very Little Danger Of Methane Reaching Surface
By P Gosselin on 9. August 2023

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A Nature study finds there’s very little risk that global warming would lead to more methane escaping from the oceans into the atmosphere.



Hat-tip: EIKE here.

Global warming alarmists have often used the scenario of increased methane in the atmosphere accelerating warming and climatic change.

But a recent study appearing in Nature, Negligible atmospheric release of methane from decomposing hydrates in mid-latitude oceans, dumps a lot cold water on this scenario. This is good news, which unfortunately the media refused to report.

At the bottom of the sea, there are large deposits of naturally occurring methane hydrate. There’s a fear that these ice-like deposits could melt and be released into the atmosphere if the oceans warmed. Methane is a far more powerful greenhouse gas than CO2. The researchers looked at the concentration and natural radiocarbon content of methane dissolved in the water column from the seafloor to the sea surface at seep fields along the US Atlantic and Pacific margins.

No methane reached the surface

Their measurements revealed no evidence of seep CH4 reaching surface waters when the water-column depth is greater than 430 ± 90 m. “Gas hydrates exist only at water depths greater than ~550 m in this region, suggesting that the source of methane escaping to the atmosphere is not from hydrate decomposition,” the authors add.

Dissolves in the ocean

In 2016, a paper published in the Reviews of Geophysics concluded that the annual emissions of methane to the ocean from degrading gas hydrates are far smaller than greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere from human activities and that most of the methane released by gas hydrates never even reaches the atmosphere. The methane often remains in the undersea sediments, dissolves in the ocean, or is converted to carbon dioxide by microbes.

Oceans retain virtually all the methane

The authors explain how methane sinks are increasingly incorporated into numerical models of climate-hydrate-interactions as knowledge becomes better established.

“Models are beginning to acknowledge that most CH4 bubbles emitted at the seafloor at water depths deeper than a few tens of meters will retain little or no methane by the time they reach the near-surface mixed layer, meaning that the primary repository of methane liberated by gas hydrate dissociation within any deepwater marine reservoir will be the ocean, not the atmosphere [e.g.,Biastoch et al., 2011],” the authors summarized.



Image source: Reviews of Geophysics