Trump’s negatives are at 56% in the polls

I only asked because Newsom's negatives are too wide and deep to be buried by the MSM.

 

I think Newsom would be worse than Biden. At least Biden takes orders pretty well. Nevertheless I don't believe the DNC will allow Biden on the ballot and the heir apparent appears to be Newsom. I guess we will see in a little less than a year. I think the MSM can bury anything.

 

While I agree Biden is preferable to Trump, it isn’t I that will decide who is and who isn’t. Republicans will vote for Trump, Democrats for Biden although there will be defections from one party to the other while some will vote against both. But the defections usually are less than 10% on average. In 2016 Clinton received 89% of the democratic vote with the remaining going to Trump and third-party candidates. Trump received 88% of the Republican vote with rest going to Clinton and third-party candidates. The defections from the major parties were higher than average. Independents went to Trump 46-42 over Clinton with 12% voting third party with many staying home and not voting as the 54% voter turnout using VAP showed.


https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/national/president


2020 was different. 94% of democrats voted for Biden, 94% of Republicans for Trump, independents went to Biden this time around 54-41 with 5% voting third party. Not many stayed home, they got out and voted as the 62% voter turnout showed using VAP.


https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results


With the dislike of both major party candidates heading into 2024, it has the feel more akin to 2016 than 2020. A low voter turnout with a high third-party vote. It will be once again, independents, swing voters, the non-affiliated, the less to non-partisans that will decide 2024, not either major party’s base. Although independents are turned off by both major party candidates, they are now leaning slightly toward Trump with a huge chunk stating they won’t vote because of their dislike and unwantedness of both Trump and Biden to become the next president or stating their preference for a third-party candidate. On average, around 30% of independents.


Just keep in mind, most independents aren’t political junkies. Most independents don’t pay much if any attention to politics until the election nears. They’re more apt to vote the candidates, vote their own perceptions of the candidates, vote against the candidate they dislike and if they dislike both major party candidates, either staying home and not voting, refusing to choose between them or voting against them via casting a ballot for a third party candidate.


As a swing voter I wonder if both major parties realize how disliked and unwanted their presumptive candidates are by most Americans. They both must know. I must conclude that neither major party cares what most Americans think, feel, want or in this case don’t want.

 

It’s kinda amazing that some folks here get my meaning. You, sir… well, I’m not surprised you ‘get it’.

 

I strongly suspect that neither Ronna McDaniel nor Jaime Harrison consider what is best for the nation. They play the hands they are dealt, and focus upon winning, and little else.

I also think that picking a candidate in a poll this far away from the election is as much an expression of a general attitude as a pre-determined vote. If somone is discontent, an incumbent is just a symbol of the status quo, not a prospective candidate for comparison.

Also, an electoral college victory is dependent upon where one's voters reside. Landslides in certain states, no matter how populous, are no better than carrying them by a single vote.

Finally, I think the ongoing exposure of evidence and the testimony of Republicans that resulted in a twice-impeached president being charged in 91 felony counts (thus far) may become factors for more law-and-order Americans.

Of course, the court-established sexual abuser and business fraud will persist in lying, attacking democratic elections and our system of jurisprudence, and that demeaning of America will appeal to some.

 

Discontent, dissatisfaction with the way things are today usually are taken out on the incumbents. I agree with that. There’s plenty of discontent and dissatisfaction out there with the way things are today. Especially among independents. We both know democrats will vote for Biden, republicans for Trump, today independents are leaning slightly toward Trump, but with around 30% stating they’ll either vote third party or not vote at all depending on the poll.


The question or questions are can Biden improve his overall job approval numbers, now at 40%. Can Biden win back independents, that’s a must in my opinion. Biden won them in 2020 by 13 points. Today he’s trailing among independents by 4 points to Trump 32-28 with the rest in the voting third party, will not vote or undecided columns. That 13-point advantage in the independent vote in 2020 equates to a bit more than 6 million votes out of the 160 million cast, within a million of the 7 million votes that Biden won the popular vote by.


The one thing that hasn’t been addressed is voter turnout. Will the turnout for 2024 be at the 2020 level, 62% 160 million using VAP or will it shrink back to the 2016 level, 54%, 137 million? I think democrats will be motivated to go vote against Trump, voting for Biden, their candidate. Republicans motivated to vote for Trump, but independents won’t be motivated at all since they dislike and don’t want neither one to become the next president. Thus, I think we’ll have a low voter turnout more akin to 2016, another election where independents disliked and didn’t want neither major party candidate to become the next president. Also, a higher third-party vote than in 2020, perhaps much higher than in 2016 based on the polling today. In 2016 6% of the electorate voted third party which included 12% of independents. Independents don’t have the skin in the game that the two major parties do. The two major parties own the candidates, they chose them. Independents didn’t choose anyone, but are expected to choose between them, this time around between two candidates they don’t want and dislike.


For the heck of it, I compared the 2020 polls to todays polls between Trump and Biden. November 2019 Biden lead Trump by 10 points, 52-42. Today, it’s Trump leading Biden 47-44.


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general-election-trump-vs-biden-7383.html


The above is just a two-candidate race, two choices only. Which I think applied in 2020, but not for 2024.

 

On November 5, 2024, Americans will be confronted with the stark reality that either Biden or Trump will be elected president.

Both old timers will have been increasingly vulnerable to physical and mental deterioration. One will still be deluded and/or lying about the last presidential election.

Will the nation still have the low unemployment, rising incomes, and falling global inflation it enjoys today?

Will Trump still be attacking officers of the court and their families in four legal venues where evidence and sworn testimony have resulted in 91 felony indictments, and will he still be threatening a plethora of personal, petty vendettas?

I shall not speculate.

 

There is too much time until Election Day.

 

Any credible analysis of an election in November 2024 can't disregard the prospects of the next eleven months.

We can only guess how the President may fare, but his opponent is facing 91 felony counts, at least some of which will be adjudicated, is responsible for the very unpopular repeal of Roe v Wade, and is again threatening to repeal increasingly popular "Obamacare."

There are also prominent Republicans, including fat cat political donors, disgusted by Trump, repulsed by his petty-vendetta-fraught agenda and dedicated to his defeat in the interests of the nation.

 

The Democrats in Florida are now pushing to cancel their presidential primary. Are they afraid the old Joe will lose it? If Joe’s candidacy is that weak, shouldn’t they be looking for someone else? Joe has no major declared opposition for the nomination, and time is growing short for an alternative to emerge.

 

Don't recall the election. I think it was for a Federal position in the 1980s or 90s but the candidate died and the courts found it's ok to nudge nudge wink wink let it slide and have the pols wife fill in for him. Completely illegal but, y'know. Rules for thee. Though, just found this... https://cawp.rutgers.edu/facts/levels-office/congress/widows-who-succeeded-their-husbands-congress

 

Regardless, if all you say comes true, it still won’t affect the fact most Americans don’t want Biden reelected. He may win, maybe in a cake walk. But he’ll still be a very unpopular president. Biden’s overall job approval has been around 40% give or take a few points since September of 2021, his disapproval at around 54% for the same length of time. Although possible, I don’t see any surge that would put Biden’s overall job approval at around 50%. Not since it’s been steady since September of 2021.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president-biden-job-approval-7320.html

How all Americans view Biden, his favorable/unfavorable has also been around the 40% favorable/55% unfavorable for the same time frame. That too I don’t think will change much over the next 11 months. Let’s face it, Biden is a very weak candidate. I think almost any other Democrat would wipe the floor against Trump whereas Biden gives Trump a 50-50 shot at regaining the presidency. I don’t see how democrats can continue to ignore how most Americans view Biden, not if the democrats are interested in winning in 2024. They seem more interested in promoting Biden which I assume they also know how weak a candidate Biden is. In plain English, making a statement over winning an election.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/biden_favorableunfavorable-6677.html

The trials begin in March next year. Today you have independents, the election deciders preferring Trump on average by 2-3 points over Biden with quite a lot of swing voters stating they’ll vote third party or won’t vote at all if there’s a rematch. The trials will probably take some of those independents who now prefer Trump over Biden from Trump. But where will they go? To Biden, perhaps, voting third party since they still don’t like nor want Biden as their next president, a possibility. Maybe they’ll just stay home and not vote at all since they didn’t want neither one to begin with. Then there is the wildcard no labels party, especially if they get decent funding along with RFK Jr. which one poll showed him winning independents with 33% of their vote to 30% for Trump, 27% for Biden. Time will tell.

 

The irony is that Biden was nominated because he was viewed as having the best chance of defeating Trump in 2020, and he did, by the same electoral vote margin as Trump had defeated Clinton in 2016, 306-232. (Trump had brayed that was a "Landslide!")

Many, including Congressional Republicans, thought that Trump had finally finished himself politically when his goons attacked outnumbered police defending democracy as he watched for hours, so they didn't bother to impeach him. It was a surprise when, Kevin McCarthy, who had immediately condemned Trump in no uncertain terms, went groveling to him shortly after.

Some are convinced that Biden has a worse chance than a number of other Democrats of defeating Trump in 2024, yet forces beyond the control of the Parties have determined the nominees.

It promises to be close, and what happens over the next eleven months could be critical.

 

I’d say Biden was indeed the best candidate to defeat Trump in 2020. Independents viewed him as a very acceptable alternative to Trump back then. They liked Biden, disliked Trump. But time goes by, things change, today Biden in my opinion isn’t the best candidate to beat Trump in 2024. Both are disliked and unwanted by most Americans, at least today. There’s also the big difference in how the two major parties handle their nomination process. The republican base wants Trump to be their nominee. The Republican Party leaders, the RNC want someone other than Trump. On the Democratic side, the DNC and Democratic Party leaders has done everything within their power to ensure no prominent democrat challenges Biden although the democratic base recognize Biden’s flaws and wish for someone else to be their nominee.


There won’t be any democratic primary debates, the republicans are having their primary debates. I do find it strange that after 2016 the Democratic Party made all those changes to limit the power of the DNC and Democratic Party leaders for 2020 which the base of the Democratic Party wanted. But the outcry over the DNC and Democratic Party leaders choosing the nominee without a challenge over much of the base of the Democratic Party wants and wishes has really been muted. It seems the base doesn’t mind much that they’re not choosing their candidate.

 

The Democrats are showing their true colors. In 1968, very few in the rank and file of the Democrat Party wanted Hubert Humphrey to be their candidate. He got one delegate in the primary voting. Yet he won the nomination easily.

That led to a reform where the candidate was supposed to be selected using the primary system. Now that's out the window as the Democrat leadership bars others from running. The Democrats are even canceling their primaries to avoid any embarrassment for Biden if he should lose.

 

Biden is the incumbent. For good or ill, there is normally enormous pressure to discourage challenging an incumbent.

In February 2019, the Republican National Committee voted to provide undivided support to Trump. Trump presently holds no political office, yet exerts enormous influence over the RNC. After Joe Biden won the 2020 election and Trump refused to concede, McDaniel and the RNC parroted Trump's false claims of voter fraud, collaborating in his debasement of democracy.

 

Amusingly, Trump's "campaign" seems to consist of accusing the President of whatever Trump is culpable of.

The irony of a certified Loser with 91 felony counts against him accusing
a certified winner with none of corruption is exceedingly jocular.


Trump calls Biden 'a corrupt, horrible' man

Trump calls Biden the 'destroyer' of democracy

Trump's children take in millions overseas

Soon, the Projectionist will be mewling about how that "Biden University" scam defrauded hapless dupes,
and how Biden was rutting with bimbos behind the backs of trophy wives.


Trump falsely claims he won 2020 election

Trump Warns ‘Cognitively Impaired’ Biden may cause 'World War II'!
"
“Just think of it. We would be in World War II very quickly if we’re going to be relying on this man!”

‘Cognitively impaired’? Trump’s confused attacks on Biden


BIDEN GOONS ATTACK OUTNUMBERED POLICE AFTER HE LOSES 2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION!

​

 

​

 

Yea Trump is inadequate, but you very old boy, Biden, is just as bad.

 

Since I don’t at this point in time see anything but a Trump vs. Biden rematch next November, I think we need to look at how all Americans view both Trump’s and Biden. Both are seen almost identical by all Americans. Trump 40.1% favorable/Trump 40.3%. Both are seen negatively, Biden 55.3%, Trump 55.5% unfavorable. There isn’t a spits worth of difference between them in how all Americans view both.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/other/FavorabilityRatingsPoliticalLeaders.html

What most Americans don’t want is this probable rematch. 59% of all Americans don’t want Biden to run again, question 14. 55% of all Americans don’t want Trump to run again either, question 15.

https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_3GgK6Vy.pdf

Apparently, neither major party gives an owl’s hoot what most Americans want, wish for or in this case don’t want. Whoever wins will be the candidate most Americans want to lose the least, although they really want both to lose. Perhaps this may be a year with good funding an independent, maybe RFK Jr. or a third-party candidate, whoever the no labels party runs breaks through the monopoly the two major parties have on our electoral system. I certainly hope so. I suppose the bottom line if either Trump or Biden wins, they’ll be a disliked and unwanted president for the next 4 years by most Americans. No public support for either one outside their base.

 

Not according to the comparative analysis I posted.

Trump accuses Biden of his criminal involvement - e.g., 91 felony indictments - not the other way around.

 

It is insane that Trump is even ahead of Biden. I have already accepted that it is likely Trump will win in 2024. The question then becomes when does our democracy fall to authoritarianism? 2028 would be my earliest guess. America is clearly losing its appetite for democracy.

 

In a fair and honest world, Hunter Biden would be in jail and Joe Biden would be fighting for his political life, but this is not a fair world. It’s a Democrat world where they hold 50 of the 52 cards.

 

It won’t take long with your Democrat Party in charge of the DOJ and Judiciary System. As much as I dislike Trump, Merrick Garland, Christopher Wray and open borders are worse. Add to that 80 thousand additional IRS agents to harass their Republican supporters and leaders, and the fascist system will be in charge.

If you are going to post extremist positions, I am equally entitled.

 

Your imaginary world is not the real world.

In the real world, the 2020 Loser is facing 91 felony counts, and the Trumpers have been unable to contrive a single indictment against the duly-elected President.

Private businessman Hunter Biden has never held political office, nor is seeking political office.