What if Trump loses in November?

Let's have some fun. Let's speculate.

Nobody seriously doubts Trump will be the nominee for the Republican Party. That fact is a danger to our democracy, but it means Biden will be running against his dream opponent. The person he can most easily beat.

MAGAs lost in 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023. So what is the plan to revert this trend? Why... do exactly the same they did in those years in 2024 and expect a different result, of course! To MAGA politicians, that's the definition of "sanity"

So what would happen after Trump loses? I think that 2025 will be the year in which conservatives finally take back their party. If Trump loses, all MAGAs will be shunned in the NGOP (New GOP) and very few will ever be seen in positions of power. In fact, I think the term MAGA might even become an insult among politicians at the very top of right wing politics. Pretty much like in the late 50s and 60s, saying that somebody practiced "McCarthyism" was seen as an insult.

Younger MAGA politicians like Vivek and DeSantis will be the first to publicize how they "can't believe how wrong we were". But it won't do them much good. The "collaborators" like Lindsey Graham, who are MAGAs In Name Only (MINOs?) will quickly try to run away from Trump. But they'll be quickly replaced by younger conservatives.

This year, and especially 2025 will be painful for Republicans. But they will have to rip off that bandage, if they expect to ever win elections again. The WORST think that could happen to Republicans is losing by a small margin. Because that might keep the MAGA dream alive for two more election cycles. But they will continue losing like they have in all elections from 2017 to now.

 

Winning the house in 2022 was a hell of a loss

 

I wouldn’t count your chickens before they’re hatched. We have 64% of all Americans stating we need another choice other than Trump and Biden. 44% of all Americans stating a viable third party is necessary, only 32% stating the republican and democratic parties are sufficient to represent Americans.

https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_i9N6Z0N.pdf

A quarter to a third of all Americans stating they’d vote third party, not vote at all if the rematch occurs depending on the poll. We have 58% of all Americans who don’t want Biden to run again, 53% who don’t want Trump to run again either. Questions 14 and 15.

https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_HvTrDQB.pdf

You have Trump leading today in only two candidate choice polls, Trump and Biden only.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden

Republicans also leading in the 2024 generic congressional polls

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/state-of-the-union/2024/generic-congressional-vote

In the senate, WV is lost, OH and MT are leaning Republican which control of the senate could flip. Finally 59% of all Americans think the democrats saying Trump will be a dictator or a threat to democracy is nothing more than a scare tactic used by the democrats, a vote for me campaign rhetoric.

https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/HHP_Jan24_KeyResults.pdf

 

IF he loses...he will throw another tantrum and claim it was stolen. Rinse repeat.

 

The system is rigged against third parties, no matter how many are attracted to them in theory, but electing a twice-impeached Loser-in-Pathological-Denial facing 91 felony indictments, who persists in assaulting and maligning such venerable American institutions as democratic elections and the rule of law, many conservative Republicans who had served in his administration denouncing his candidacy, vehemently opposed by such a broad range of Americans whom the Loser dismisses as "vermin", seems beyond the pale, although I must admit it could happen here.

 

Then he loses. And the next 4 years are going to see the further decline of the United States.

 

Delusion will kill Republicans. MAGAs lost the popular vote for the house in 2022. A year in which they should have won comfortably. But they got a tiny majority in the House only because of heavy gerrymandering, most of which the courts have reversed.

I'm talking about the vote. And 2022 was a HUGE loss for Republicans even though they nominally took over the House.

 

They're not going to HAVE another choice other than Trump and Biden. You can discard that possibility. Any third party candidate will take as many votes from Trump as they will from Biden (in the best of cases for Trump). And I'd be surprised if they get more than 1% of the votes.

As for the polls, completely irrelevant right now. Republicans have been campaigning for months. Democrats haven't even started. Republicans have nothing to campaign on. Democrats have quite a LOT. And they'll have even more as the year progresses. A tie in the polls at this point, or even being slightly behind, is actually a good place to be. Right now it's basically only MAGAs who are paying attention to politics. Democrats and independents will start paying attention around July or August. Look for polls then. And don't look at the numbers. Look at the trends. The numbers themselves are meaningless. Who is going up and who is going down as election day approaches is what is interesting to watch.

I'll make a prediction (speculation). I think you'll see Biden take a sizable lead around August or September. Then you'll see Trump starting to catch up around the start of October, depending on how good an "October surprise" they have prepared in collusion with the Russians and Chinese. The tendency at the end of October might be the only polls worth watching.

 

The Loser couldn't even handle the truth in 2016 when he refused to accept that he had lost the popular vote, let alone in 2020 when he lost the electoral college as well. The Loser has concocted no evidence to support his lie, but cults do not require even the flimsiest of pretexts to embrace a lie that fits their dogma.

There is no reason to believe that he and they will respect democracy and the rule of law in 2024 without regard to the election's certified result.

Law enforcement will be prepared for another goon attack on Congress. Fake elector schemes will fail. Intimidation of Republican officeholders to make them falsify the votes of their constituents is also off the table.

 

Definitely! However, I think this time the difference will be too broad for anybody to pay much attention. But I'm sure they're already preparing the lawsuits. And I'm also sure Democrats are preparing for this too.

 

I try to take you people seriously, I really do, but you make it impossible. You couldn't even make it past the 2nd sentence without trying to impose your FEELINGS about something as a "FACT".

SAD!!

 

What I hope does NOT happen, no matter who loses, is another escalation in hostilities brought about by the foolish intentional erosion of confidence in our electoral process. They have been escalating since Obama's inauguration, and no one has done anything but make elections even more prone to fraud. Once the people can no longer rely on the ballot box to be able to peacefully send the scoundrels packing, they are left with little other choice than to do so by force.

 

Senile Joe has been campaigning since the day he was sworn in. his student loan pandering is proof enough

 

It makes no difference if you take us seriously or not. What you need to do is take TRUMP seriously when he says he'll be a dictator COMBINED (that alone might have been interpreted as a joke, but not when you look at the context) with the facts that his role models are dictators, that he already attempted an insurrection, and that he keeps quoting Hitler.

Sidenote: Trump is not Hitler. But the fact that Trump quotes him forces us to mention him.

 

no one takes that seriously.

 

"Campaigning"?

Oh! You mean GOVERNING!

Yep! Biden has been "pandering" to students, to black people, to unions, to women, to young people, to the elder on Medicare and Social Security, to people who use roads and bridges, to people looking for jobs ... you know... to people who VOTE. I for one think that will show in the elections better than Trump who has been pandering only to billionaires and white supremacists.

 

opinion noted and not accepted. pandering to college kids who pick worthless majors is obvious. And your claim about Trump is factually bankrupt. The billionaire class mainly favors Senile Joe because they like more government because they think that gives them more power

 

If Trump loses in November there will be a civil war.

If Trump wins in November there will be a civil war.

Either way there will be a civil war.

When Turkey had an attempted coup, I was like holy cow a NATO country just had an attempted coup.

Then, the united states had an attempted coup-lol.

Amazing how many millions of people died for Democracy

It's surprising how quickly it's ending.

 

The big red wave that turned out to be a pink ripple? Were it not for gerrymandering it would have been a big red embarrassment. What have Repubs done since winning the House? Nothing but bicker, try to cause the US to default on our debt, and launch ineffectual investigations in to Joe.

 

the supreme court is mainly the cause of that

 

My feeling at this point, I hope he loses. ANYTHING to stop the incessant bitching an moaning from the left will suit me just fine..

It feel more like pre-school right before nap time than a republic anymore..

 

Today, given the mood of the entire electorate, I’d say you’re correct in that Trump might be elected once again. Now there’s a Pacific Ocean worth of water to flow under the November election bridge, anything can and probably will happen. I really don’t think the democrats realize how much a majority of Americans don’t want Biden reelected. A majority also don’t want Trump to regain the white house. Today less than 40% have a positive or favorable view of Biden. At the same time, almost 42% view Trump favorably or positively. Which seems to explain Trump’s slight lead in the head to head matchup. But at the same time also proves both are disliked and unwanted to become the next president.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/biden_favorableunfavorable-6677.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/trump_favorableunfavorable-5493.html

The last election we had with both major party candidates having been seen favorable by less than 40% was 2016. Clinton at 38% favorable, Trump at 36%. We had a voter turnout of 54%, 137 million compared to 62% using VAP, 160 million for 2020. 6.0% voted third party in 2016 compared to 1.7% in 2020. I’m not predicting a winner or loser, just that in 2024 we’ll have a low voter turnout due to the dislike and unwantedness of both major party candidates, lower than 2016 with a higher third-party vote than the 6.0% we had in 2016. Especially if both RFK Jr. and the no labels candidates are well financed. That has always been the problem with third parties, they never had any money. Biden spent a little over 1.6 billion in 2020 to Trump’s less than 1.1 billion. Poor little Jo Jorgensen was in third place spending less than 3 million, $2,930,266 to be exact. You’re not going to win or make a splash being out spent 2.7 billion to less than 3 million.

https://www.opensecrets.org/2020-presidential-race

 

You should, because it's the only time when he's telling the truth.

 

There I disagree, especially if RFK Jr. and no labels are well financed. I’d predict a higher third-party vote than in 2016, 6.0% in another election where both major party candidates were disliked and unwanted. Also, a low voter turnout, lower than in 2016 as many of those who dislike both major party candidates stay home, refusing to choose between the two.


I don’t have any number to go by for October or later, just todays. Hillary led in the popular vote polls from start to finish by 5 points give or take a point and won by the popular vote by 2.1 points. Biden held a 7-8-point lead from start to finish before winning the popular vote by 4.4 points. Today Trump leads Biden by 4 points in a head to head, Trump has led Biden since November 2023. The problem is few polls this early include third party candidates or the option of I wouldn’t vote.


Now who the third-party voters take votes away if that is how you want to look at it, I don’t know. I view it differently, not as taking votes away from the two major party candidates. Neither had their votes to begin with, so there’s not taking away something you didn’t have. They always have the option of staying home and not voting. But a third-party vote gives the voter a way to officially register his disdain and disgust with both major party candidates with his vote as being against both major party candidates. This way, a third-party voter isn’t helping either of the two candidates he doesn’t want, win.

 

Spending even in worthless majors benefits the country more than tax cuts for billionaires which is just welfare for the rich.

I think that may have some truth to it. Billionaires might be understanding that a dictatorship might not be good for business despite the welfare that Trump gives them. But Biden is the conservative in the race. So it makes sense.