I'm waiting to see if Chevron gets overturned in June. If it does, there will be no denying Trump's brilliance as President. If it doesn't, the progressive con game proceeds apace, internal combustion gets banned by the EPA, the economy cavitates, and the country simply self destructs and becomes a vassal state to China. Then it simply won't matter which Democrat gets to oversee the demise.
Highly unlikely that RFK Jr is going to run as a third party. But, if he does, he'd take more Republican votes than Democratic votes. Maybe a few votes of Republicans who might vote for Biden if RFK isn't running. But a very tiny and meaningless amount. I think there will be a low voter turn out, but mostly of Republicans who are not MAGAs. They have nothing to vote for. Democrats, even those who don't like Biden, have a lot to vote AGAINST. The numbers you see today are absolutely worthless to predict what will happen in November. 100% meaningless. Third party are irrelevant. Even more irrelevant in these elections. It makes no difference how many votes they receive, they will have NO weight to tilt the scale either way.
The election is over nine months away. Trump is facing indictments on 91 felony counts, and is increasingly unhinged. The unpopular President (who is not widely viewed as a threat to democracy) may well have his hope to sign bipartisan border security legislation sabotaged by Trump's lackeys in Congress. The low unemployment numbers could rise. Global inflation could return. Fanatics could foment wars in a number of theaters. Other stuff will happen, as well. I can guarantee it.
So there you go. If RFK doesn't run, you'll be voting for Trump. I think this is a more typical scenario than somebody changing their vote from Biden to RFK. Because most who vote for Biden are actually voting against Trump. Whether RFK runs or not can change, but Trump running will not.
@Golem Did I say that Golem? You can't help putting words in people post they don't say, WHY is that?
In a three candidate race it’s Trump 41, Biden 33%, RFK Jr. 18%. But among independents RFK Jr. drew 23% of their vote if the election were held today. https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/HHP_Jan24_KeyResults.pdf
RFK seems to be running. RFK Jr. has already obtained ballot access in Utah and New Hampshire and is in the process of getting on 10 more state ballots, Arizona, California, Colorado, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Nevada, New York and Texas. No Labels has ballot access in at least 14 states, worth 123 electoral college votes: Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Hawaii, Maine, Maryland, Mississippi, Nevada, North Carolina, Oregon, South Dakota, and Utah. Signature gatherers have another 14 states in their sights between now and November. Although no labels haven’t settled on a candidate as of yet. But they have at least 7 more weeks to do so. As I have said, how viable RFK Jr. and whoever is the no labels party candidate all depends on the amount of money available to them. To be viable, it will probably take around a billion dollars if going buy the last two presidential and midterms.
Not sure what you mean by "viable". Are you actually talking about winning? Of course not! Not even with a hundred billion dollars. He might draw a handful of votes from Trump. But not many. I don't think many Republicans will care much for him when they learn he's pro-gun control, pro gay marriage and favors a single-payer government managed healthcare system. And any Democrat who doesn't want Biden because they think he's senile will not vote for a drug adict who thinks that abortion happens AFTER birth and that Covid was created by Jews to target white and black people. Very few people know his positions... but if there ever even so much as a HINT that he will get more than a few hundred votes per state, they will be publicized. In any case, this thread is about what happens if TRUMP loses. RFK Jr is a topic for another thread. Not this one.
I wish. But I doubt it. She's too predicable. If she had said at the beginning of her campaign what she's saying now about Trump, I would say she has a chance. She is telling the truth. But waiting until now to say it sounds desperate.
She either tells the truth about Trump or she caters to MAGAs. Trying to do both is a lose-lose situation. The only reason we even talk about her is that she's still running and spending money. But in a normal race in which there were two candidates with probabilities, her numbers would be a rounding error. Her plan is just to not drop out before South Carolina so she doesn't look as bad as DeSantis. Unlike DeSantis, she might have a political career beyond 2024. I think her eye is more on Lindsey Graham rather than on Donald Trump.
They used to call it Flip-flopping. And it used to be bad for a candidate to change positions only when it was politically beneficial. It was seen as an insult to the candidate's voters because they viewed it (correctly) as being manipulated. But that was waaaay back in the pre-Trump era in which we lived... eight years ago. You know... back when it was not just Democrats who had principles and cared about being treated like useful fools.
50% of the Voters in America are below average compared to the other 50% of voters in America and all it takes to get elected is 50%.
When the Dems go back to being REAL Democrats rather than fascist authoritarians, GOPers will go back to their roots as well. The continual FUBARing of the last three years isn't an environment many on the right would embrace.
Capitalism is inherently globalists. Hence why the modern Trumpist movement is a rabidly anti-capitalist movement. And someone with even the most basic economics education would understand that trade is not a zero-sum game, hence why it is dumber than a sack of hammers to pretend that globalism means "US failing." But hating free trade and hating capitalism is, aside from hating trans people and hating democracy, the current mission of the right.