Xi Jinping in Russia: China Will ‘Stand Guard over the World Order’

Well, I don't think the Russian people have much to do with it. The organs of power in Russia are strong, and the people are afraid of them. There may be some dissension for a time, but the Russian government is very good at crushing such things. The people will have no choice.

I wouldn't write off negotiation too quickly. The wild card here is that, in my opinion, Russia is losing this war, and I suspect there are many in the Russian government who know it. I see no pathway to victory for them outside of going nuclear. And when you're losing a war, you lower your demands and are more inclined to take what you can get. Anything is better than a complete and humiliating military defeat.

 

I think I'll disagree on one point.....there were attempts to dissuade the Kremlin from its invasion.....Putler simply wasn't buying into it. This invasion was planned long in advance....Putler made several statements over the years indicating that Ukraine was just some "backyard" of Russias, same as Georgia,Moldova,Baltics....and at some point Mafialand will make the move to re incorporate these former "republics" into the RussFed....no amount of discussions or negotiations would've dissuaded Putlerstan.....his mind was made up years ago.....it was all timing leading up to 2/24/2022.

 

"Anything".....

So give an inch now.....and later the Dwarf comes back taking MILES....that's where it'll end up leading.

 

Well, all those plans and statements Putin made are well and good when you aren't losing the war you started. Losing a war changes things.

How is he going to take miles with the incompetent military he possesses?

 

Realism is certainly in order here. Let's take a look at where things stand, shall we?

This is a map of Ukraine (obviously) and the territory you see in brown is the territory Russia currently occupies:



If I'm correct, this is exactly what Putin was willing to settle for going into this war - a land bridge linking the Crimean Peninsula to Russia. Certainly, he would have loved to have conquered the entire country or everything east of the Dnieper River that bisects Ukraine, but that's not happening with his military. However, he does occupy what he has wanted since the Ukrainian government threatened to terminate the lease on the Russian Black Sea Fleet's base in Sevastopol back in the 2000s (the threat that I believe instigated Putin's invasion of Georgia in 2008 ) - the port of Sevastopol, the Crimean Peninsula surrounding it and the land bridge to Russia.

Having seized what he needs, not necessarily wants, I think Putin would be willing to settle for the current status quo, but what about the Ukrainians? Are they willing to settle for this, and is it wise of them to settle for this knowing that Russia might use it as a springboard for another land grab in the future? Listening to them, I doubt it, and if I were them I wouldn't. So, unless the Ukrainians score some major victories in the Spring offensive that is anticipated for sometime around May it looks like this is going to be a long, bloody war with no end in sight.

That leaves one last alternative for peace, and to be brutally realistic I think it's the only one that exists: Putin's death or incapacitation. As long as he remains alive and remains in power he is not going to give up his dream of becoming the next Peter the Great, consequently he is not going to give up his ambitions in Ukraine.

And here's one more bit of brutal realism for us to consider - there may be no peace to be found and had here, just as there has been no peace to be had between India and Pakistan, North Korea and South Korea, and Israel and the Palestinians (most particularly Hamas). Perhaps one day it will come, as it came between France and England after the Hundred Years War or the Holy Roman Empire and its adversaries after the Thirty Years War (which wasn't much longer than our own war in Afghanistan).

I'm usually the eternal optimist, but barring a major reversal in Ukraine's fortunes this year I am pessimistic about this war ending any time soon, and perhaps we'd better start considering what we're going to do if it doesn't end any time soon.

Here's a look a the numbers as of last month:

By the numbers: US military aid to Ukraine
https://thehill.com/homenews/3871459-by-the-numbers-u-s-military-aid-to-ukraine/

 

How will he take "miles"??....

He's demonstrated he has no qualms of wasting conscripts...much like Stalin.

He's still holding out on the theory that....everyone else will tire and focus somewhere else.

Afaic....he ain't stopping.

 

Putins death or incapacitation.....true....that's the only way I can see any sort of ....path forward.

Otherwise....expect more of the same.

 

Good summary to this point.. agree with your assessment for the most part .. Putin has secured the Black Sea .. Port of Strategic interest - Crimea .. and not going to be giving this back to Ukraine anytime soon .. and I think it is safe to say that everyone (that matters) knows it at this point - Zelinski included - which begs a few tough questions .. which should be addressed another time.

Putin has what he wants .. but this is something Biden is not willing to negotiate at present .. and so Zelinski is spurred on with promises that support is coming .. quite similar to the previous JV teams.. support that NATO is outright stating will not be enough .. in so many words.

That this war will be long -- not sure I will fully support that conclusion defacto --- It definitely could be .. but, some things point to a shorter time frame. The current conflict Ukraine is going through ammo and bodies at a rapid rate .. ammo "Many times higher" than rate of production .. and no upping it anytime soon .. talking 155 mm shells here which is the standard artillery round .. Experts are saying end of Summer Ukraine may be "Out of Ammo" for all intensive purposes. .. and at this rate of attrition "Estimated lifespan of the Trench ~ 4 hous" not gonna be many bodies left.

Now .. Could Ukraine Pull back and cede the Territory to Russia from a military perspective .. but carry on guerrila style attacks for decades like the Palestinian-Israeli conflict .. Or the Irish conflict .. You bet .. but the real question of how long the actual war lasts is a question of how long NATO decides to continue supporting the war .. and the appetite for this in the EU is thinning fast .. opposition in the US springing up as well .. as the Ugly Truth about the conflict is starting to filter out .. its a fkn meat grinder .. your just putting someone in a line up .. takes them about 4 hours to make it to the jumping off point - into the grinder.. send the sausage home for xmas one poster declared.

The continuance of the war at this point is to showcase the latest arms .. see what the other side has .. China would love to test some of their stuff .. NATO would like to see what they have ... Israel is choked that they not able to test their stuff. .. Iran has been a star of the show.. as have some of the EU nation weapons systems .. buy some shares in a good arms dealer if you can find .. because the game has changed .. everyone knows it .. and all nations are rushing to the store to buy the new tech .. that can protect the little fish from the big fish .. very effectively.






/

 

Thanks, zoom - I was wondering what you thought.

Right now I see this situation much in the same way I saw our situation in Iraq prior to the Surge - it's going to be up to the men fighting this war to get it heading in the right direction.

Otherwise, as you say, more of the same...

 

Note what I bolded in red. Perhaps that would be a reason to offer something to the Russians, like no NATO membership for Ukraine and a lifting of sanctions in exchange for a withdrawal of Russian forces and a formal peace treaty. It just ... might ... sow the seeds for Putin to "have a heart attack", or "accidentally fall out of a 20 story window". The prospect of a long, expensive war they cannot win combined with the offer of a pathway out of it feeling like they won something out of it, just might be enough to give Putin a "sudden illness", if you know what I mean. And maybe not. But we lose nothing by at least trying. But we don't have a real president. We have a child who would rather tell amusing anecdotes that exist in his fantasies about what a tough guy he was when he was a boy. *smh*

 

The Russian Army capturing the city of Mariupol in which Ukraine which Ukraine will have to fight back to get back and I hope they will. I don't know what the Chinese President Xi Jinping thinks of Putin plans but favors him in what Putin does. I still believe that Putin wants all of Ukraine and thinks he'll get it. He probably won't stop there by all means. Ukraine as we all know refuses give up that easy.

 

"Lift sactions"

"No Nato member"

"Withdraw all Mafiosi sources".....

LOL....great to dream Seth......reality says otherwise.

 

Well, the ugly truth is that every war is a meat grinder. Why anyone would think this one would be any different is a mystery to me. The only surprise, in my estimation, is how much Russian meat has gotten ground up in this war, which is testimony to how well the Ukrainians have fought and how the Russians didn't learn anything from the invasion of Georgie in 2008 when they experienced many of the same problems they're experiencing in Ukraine today. Their logistics were horrendous back then and still are, they didn't have a professional NCO corps then and they still don't, and the fact that none of that and all the other defects in their conventional forces never got fixed over the past 15 years speaks to the lousy civilian and military leadership in Russia. Hypersonic missiles and all the other high tech stuff might make a splash in the media but the boring low tech stuff that isn't 'sexy' and doesn't grab headlines is what wins wars and keeps casualties down. Ordinary, mundane things like this:



What images of Russian trucks say about its military’s struggles in Ukraine
https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/14/europe/ukraine-war-russia-trucks-logistics-intl-hnk-ml/index.html

What we have here is a bumbling Goliath fighting World War I against a tiny David fighting a 21st Century war. How it turns out is anyone's guess....

The continuance of the war at this point is on account of a wannabe Peter the Great's revanchism, but your point about the arms showcase is quite interesting, particularly in the realm of shoulder-fired anti-tank missile systems. It's really made people rethink how to build and use tanks, APCs, etc.. In a weird way this war is reminiscent of the Spanish Civil War that preceded WWII where you had Germany, the Soviets and others testing out their latest weapons and equipment. That was also a very nasty, ugly affair where you had high tech weaponry converging with Man's timeless animal brutality. I guess that could be said for any war but that one was remarkably dark in its own depraved way. I can't think of many wars where you had people running around digging up graves and displaying corpses in the streets like the anarchists did in Barcelona.

 

The West funds China by buying their junk products.

 

True but as China becomes more wealthy with more of a middle class, I suspect manufacturing to be shifting towards India or Africa or better yet, Mexico.

The United States needs to grow closer ties and trade with Mexico. Cheaper, more skilled labourers. This needs to happen. Because if we don't, Russia and China will.

 

At some point the two sides have to talk, and there's certainly a lot of wisdom in what you're suggesting. As an old general who knew a a lot more about warfare than I ever will once said

 

as we outsource more jobs and import more goods, we lose power, excessive foreign outsourcing and excessive foreign imports is a national security risk

 

Sad but true, and the stupid part is that it's cheaper to buy a more expensive Western product than to buy the same Chinese crap two or three times because it keeps breaking.

Speaking of which, I've got a GREAT idea - let's get the people who can't make safe dog food conduct gain of function research on deadly viruses for us!

 

now that America is outsourcing so may jobs overseas, other countries will be the ones buying China's stuff, we become less needed

as we outsource more jobs, people can less afford American made

see where this is going people?

 

I think America, same as the UK, should rebuild it's own manufacturing base and not rely on countries because as we've witnessed, it comes back to bite ya in the ass.

 

And when a president tried to balance the books on trade and tried tariffs, one side of the political aisle screamed at the sky.

 

And that is why every politician who says we should pay people to sit at home and do nothing deserves a steel-toed boot in the ass.

 

I agree, some manufacturing needs to come back to America but if you enjoy your cheap iphone or xbox, shoes...shirts...pants...etc etc...you need cheap labor.

 

Mexico can provide much of that cheap labor. That is why NAFTA is so important.

 

I don't, I try to spend that bit more to get a better product. Buy cheap, buy twice.

So I bought a beard trimmer made in the EU, the plastic trim length guards still had, "Made in China", on those. So I spent £60, but I could have got a China crap one for £20.