Coronavirus now leading cause of death in US

Again, this time frame logic isn't rational, you might as well be arguing that there were 0 deaths from the virus last year, thus we shouldn't be worried about the current rate at which people are dying from the virus, which again the current rate is between 1900 and 2000 a day. Yes, there were fewer deaths in January, but that is because fewer people had contacted the virus, now that more people have contacted the virus. we are seeing more Americans die each day from the virus than anything.

Case in point, we must do what we can to prevent this virus from spreading even more than it already has, otherwise we might see 3000 Americans die each day, or worse. If we could reduce the number of people infected to what it was in January, that in itself would save thousands of lives each day.

I'm sorry, but the only goalpost we should be talking about is reducing the spread of this virus. Period

2000 Americans dying in a single day from the virus is not a goal post, it is a reality. I don't like it, and you don't like it.. but it is the unfortunate reality that we are in. This virus is currently the biggest threat to American lives. Admittedly that wasn't the case at the beginning of the year, but it is the case now

 

Gee, how foolish of the country to be deluded by fear-crazed headline like "3000 Americans killed on September 11, 2001" and America started taking urgent actions simply because of that one day event!

I guess some extra donations to the Cancer Society would have been the right priority thing that day?

 

That’s ridiculous. If you are looking at cause of death for the year, calculate it at the end of the year.

But the fact that more people are currently dying each day from Covid19 is important information and scary. Something that wasn’t killing a single person in the country a couple of months ago is now killing more people each day than anything else.

I suppose you don’t run a business or have any kind of management role. If you did, you would understand the importance of measuring things more than once per year.

 

Over 50,000 Americans die every month from heart disease. Do the math. If you run a business or are in management it's a surprise you can't comprehend such things...

 

What things?

 

I don't want to be the bearer of bad news for you, but this virus is almost certain to kill more than 50,000 Americans before the end of the year. You will see around 20,000 dead by tomorrow, if not sooner. And that number is most certainly going to go up by an average of at least (no matter how optimistically you look at the situation)1,500 new deaths per day, for until the end of April (and into May). That by itself will put the US over 50,00 deaths by the end of April, never mind the end of the year.

 

Well yes, if you are being trivial and obtuse. If left to run amok, it could kill almost as many people as all other causes of death combined, this year. How's that for a fair comparison.

 

That's per month, not annual for heart disease. Heart disease will have killed over 200,000 by the end of April. Current total Covid deaths are projected to be 60,000 max...

 

You could start with basic math...

 

I had misread your message. My bad.

I don't agree that the projections right now, in total, are 60,000 "max" for Covid-19. 60,000 is around the figure you are going to see by the end of May by my estimates. And I think my estimates run lower than those by the US government, although I have not closely trailed their most recent revised estimates (which include 'best case', 'target' and worst case').

 

It depends heavily on the degree to which people stay isolated. Already we are seeing people reaching the end of their rope.

The 60K model assumes isolation measures are in effect through May.

 

My own view is that, even with social distancing, the US will have 50,000+ deaths by the end of April. And as many as 60-70 thousand by end of May. Afterwards, considering warming weather and other things, its harder for me to have an estimate, but I think just 60,000 total for the year (even with social distancing) would be close to a miracle. Even with social distancing, I don't see that being very realistic.

 

Fair enough. I hope you can see my point though. Covid, as bad as it is, just isn't on the same scale. The projections in the US were recently lowered to 40k-60k, whereas heart disease will remain steady...

 

I know basic math. What point are you making?

 

While I wouldn't necessarily equate, from a public policy standpoint, the issues which arise from heart disease with those which arise from an infectious disease that is spreading, and which has caused a pandemic, I have no problems (speaking for myself) admitting that Covid-19 will almost certainly not be the leading cause of death in the US in 2020, when all is said and done. By the same token, I actually find the fact that it is already killing (on a daily basis, and even admitting this will not last for too long and these are likely to be close to peak numbers) more people than other diseases, something noteworthy. Indeed, something that can help people realize the importance of taking action to combat this pandemic.

Generally speaking, I just disagree with you and others who think it is best to down play the threats posed by this virus. In fact, I believe that while we can have a good faith argument on what would be the best measures to take to combat the spread of the virus, I just don't find it even arguable that this pandemic should not be given focus and attention to make people aware of the measures they need to take to best avoid the virus from spreading further. Indeed, if this virus wasn't "hyped" (as some of you imagine it is), and people just went about their business as usual, I would honestly expect the death toll from the virus at the end of the year for the US to be around 300-500 thousand. I don't think it would have gotten much worse than that, as I do think 'herd immunity' (plus warming weather) would cushion the situation from getting into the worst case numbers that were sometimes mentioned, but up to half a million dead from an infectious virus would (by itself) cause (even without government strictures) most businesses to find their employees not going to work, most parents reluctant to send their kids to school, and all sorts of panic and other issues (and an overwhelming of the health care system) -- all of which would cause more economic damage than even by the measures you see now.

 

I've been using the IHME projections as a guide. They've been pretty spot on with their projections since I started reviewing their forecast on a regular / daily basis. They've dramatically lowered the numbers in the forecast.

Just over a week ago, they were projecting peak deaths/day on April 16, with 3,300 Americans dying. The forecast has been slowly trending down since then.

They recently predicted yesterday as the peak deaths/day, with 1,983 (not far off from 2,035.) Today they project 1,907 and it going down from there.

Now - those projections reflect the fact that many, many more are taking it seriously. It could easily change if people think, "well, that wasn't so bad," or whatnot. Easter tomorrow is also another big ??? There are pastors calling their flock to celebrate Easter on the spot. One pastor in PA is hoping for a Woodstock-style Easter celebration to "blow the covid away."

So, we will see. I really, really hope the IHME is right and we are on the other side of this. But, it will only last if people continue to do what's needed.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

 

Thanks. I clicked on the projections you mention. I found them close to what I expect as well. With one exception: unlike these projections showing the number of new deaths going down to zero eventually by June, I am mostly inclined to say that the numbers will be substantially down by the summer. For it to go down to zero seems unlikely to me, since once the numbers go down significantly, the social distancing measures will begin being lifted. And by then, while the spread won't be as fast or as 'efficient' in the summer, by autumn, you can see the numbers spiking if the pandemic begins to take its turn on the Southern Hemisphere. And then spread from that route.

In any case, I really don't think long term predictions and projections for a pandemic like this are going to be all that reliable necessary. There is too much we still don't know. But I am, more or less, confident the current 'phase' of the virus will lose much of its steam by June. There may (or may not) be another phase, but that is too speculative to project or predict right now. We do need a vaccine and/or cure developed urgently, as we can't have this virus reappearing again and again. Even with more and more people developing immunity to the virus each time, this virus is too problematic (and deadly for many) for it to become a regular occurrence.

 

I don't see it as downplaying, its keeping it in perspective. Proper precautions are common sense, but hiding and withering away are not. I respect your opinion and wish you the best...

 

Yeah - anyone who understands even a bit why this is so problematic doesn't believe our problems disappear June 1. My husband was reading something (I'll have to ask him more details,) that explained this thing has some sort of built-in quality control mechanism that makes it much easier for it to stay in tact, so harder to morph into something benign. I believe we've also had a case where someone who was cleared of the virus was once again testing positive, so it may not be a "get it and you're immune," type virus like we are used-to. I'm going to dig into these things later.

We will likely get the summer reprieve, but if we don't get a handle on this, we go right back where we are in the Fall.

 

What you refer to as "hiding and withering away" ARE the common sense proper precautions

 

Future projections depend on the actions we take now and in the future. With the actions we are currently taking, we are expected to significantly decrease the overall number of confirmed cases within a few months. However, if we were to fail at reducing the spread of this virus, the numbers would be far greater than what they are today, which in its current state is killing more Americans by the day than anything else. If the virus were to become as common as the flu, the expected number of deaths is in the millions

 

Figures can be twisted any way one chooses.
I buoy myself up buy the fact at one point in time I was the youngest person on earth and at some point I will be the first to take my last breath.

 

It makes me incredibly sad that the very thing that is keeping the spread so low is the thing that will cause us to open up again too soon.

"See? The projections were wrong! It's not so bad!!!" all without understanding enough about it to know the only reason the projections went down is specifically because people started staying home. If these people get their way and we open up the theme parks, movie theaters, VEGAS.... I can't even imagine.

The Navy is doing a mea culpa since their "it's not so bad," guy who fired the captain of the USS Theodore Roosevelt.... is now in isolation because he didn't think precautions were necessary. I don't want anyone to get sick or die, but if some people must, I'd prefer the virus go the karma route, and take people who don't take it seriously. If many many people need to die, we're best off without the stupid.

 

Not to discount what you are saying. But the vast majority of those dying from Covid19 have underlying conditions such as morbid obesity, heart disease, respiratory issues, diabetes, and cancer. So the numbers are actually wrapping those soon to die from various other ailments into the deaths from covid19. Granted the value and length of life remaining for those sans the virus is inestimable. It is somewhat deceiving to say the virus eclipses those ailments in effect. When poorly built structures fall to the wind, we do not damn the wind. We build them better. This should be a wake up call for Americans to get healthy for the length and quality of life and to be better prepared for emergencies that require swiftness and vigor.

 

Fake news. Taking an outsized sample over an extremely limited time and not noting that in comparison to other comparable samples over large amounts of time without PREFACING CLEARLY the numbers is a LIE. No way around it.