We broke all records of cases, deaths, and hospitalizations today

Yes. That’s my point. We can’t claim lockdowns are responsible for all UK drop when places without lockdown drop the same percentage. There have to be other factors in play. That’s why I bring it up. So we don’t assume things are responsible for decreased infections that may not be.

 

Yes, but then, in the matter of epidemiological controls, there are also correlations to the contrary. Take masks, for example. In Kansas, the State Supreme Court stopped the governor from implementing a state-wide mask mandate, and let the decision to counties. So, ALL counties that implemented the mandate (no exceptions, although it included the most densely populated and urban counties) showed a sharp decline in new cases, while ALL counties that did not implement the mandate (no exceptions) did not. So, the idea that epidemiological control doesn't work is very iffy, if that correlation turns out to be causality.

Then, look at the case of Spain. They did a prolonged and strict lockdown, actually enforced. Their mortality rate dropped literally to ZERO and stayed zero, or 1 or 2 or at most 3 deaths per day, for weeks. Then they opened up... and now they are having between 270 and 440 deaths per day.

It's just logical. If you get a lockdown that is actually obeyed by the population and nobody goes anywhere, there is no way for the virus to keep moving.

Many of the apparent failures of lockdowns, in my opinion, are due to them being very partially implemented, and not obeyed. In my state, despite clear gubernatorial orders for a lockdown in the spring, mobile apps showed that only like 36% of inhabitants obeyed it. So, a lockdown in which 64% of people continue to move around, obviously has a much smaller chance of working than one in which 95% of people stay put.

 

I think you mentioned that Kansas thing before. At the time I hadn’t looked into it. After that my buddy @Lesh brought it up so I decided to have a look. Turns out many of the claims are outright false. Here’s my reply to him. I apologize for no day stamps on the bar graphs, but I counted bars for days to validate my claims. I may be off a day or two but not enough to invalidate my claims.

In short, this Kansas thing is as fake as all the other media fiascos I’ve debunked on PF. There were mask mandated counties that saw drastic increases in cases after enforcing mandates.

I have not researched Spain’s lockdown. I can’t comment specifically.

Absolutely agree. A real lockdown works. That’s why I’m staying home again like I did in the first wave. And as you imply, Americans are not ever going to successfully execute a full lockdown. Look at the clown politicians gallivanting all over the world while telling their constituents to stay home. Not even the people who design and implement the restrictions will abide by them.

 

~ Don't worry. Ol´ Joe is in charge now. He'll make us all mask up 27-7 and cure the virus - vaccine be damned .

 

Fair enough. I didn't know that the Kansas thing was fake.
I feel more confident about Spain.
But yes, lockdowns in the US won't ever work like they can in some other places where the culture is more docile in terms of obeying to governmental orders. We are too rebellious, here.

 

Silly. Biden said today he will ASK people to wear masks, and of course he will continue to distribute the vaccines. He said in a debate he will take the vaccine himself.

 

Yes, that's because of an extreme allegiance to the (obsolete**) "sovereignty of the individual" meme of classical liberalism. Americans are paying a heavy price for it, in this pandemic (latest daily death count 2880, approaching the 9/11 casualty count).

** the globe is too ecologically and economically connected now, for an unregulated "sovereignty of the individual" philosophy to hold sway.

 

Good point, the comparison with 9/11. Every 30 seconds an American is dying of Covid-19.

 

It really is fascinating how different cultures act/react. The other day we were discussing Japan. Last night I ran across this interesting bit of information on mask usage in Japan.
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2020.01918/full#fig1

Turns out the biggest reason people there wear masks isn’t to protect themselves or others. It’s simply to fit in and be perceived as “normal”. Wow. I don’t care what one’s stance is on masks, that’s fascinating.

Oh, yes, I think your Spain analysis is spot on.

 

Thanks for the article, the point is interesting, but the title of it profoundly irritates me, as it pretends that masks are unlikely to offer protection from infection.

 

~ Every hour in the U.S., about 83 Americans die from heart disease and stroke. { CDC }
Wuhan virus was avoidable - likely spread on purpose by decision of China Communist Party. Only two countries have stood against the Chinese - India and Japan. One man also - Donald Trump.
Until the world begins to put blame/responsibility on the source there will not be a serious resolution. Get used to the "new normal" .

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-digest-1-death-every-15-seconds/a-54440991

 

So much easier to blame China than accept responsibility for the way people have responded to the pandemic.
Tell me, do you blame America for the Spanish flu pandemic in 1918?
After all, it started in the US and there was a deliberate attempt to cover it up by the American government.

 

State percent positives today.
States ranked by COVID-19 test positivity rates: Dec. 3 (beckershospitalreview.com)

 

Yes. I noticed that. I guess I don’t know what the current claim is on reduced incidence of infection for the wearer. It would have to exceed 50% to say they are “likely“ to offer protection I guess. I’ve not seen any hard data in that range. It certainly is a weird word choice and not particularly constructive. Should have just been edited out since it isn’t really relevant to the survey anyway.

I suspect since the data was collected in March the article was probably written in the summer. I think everyone was still calling people stupid who claimed masks were to protect the wearer and not simply for source control back then. Probably slipped past editors and reviewers. CDC just recently updated their stance. Maybe the psychology field lags the CDC...

 

Howdy friend. As far as I know it’s never been proven where Spanish Flu originated. One of the strongest cases has been made for China being the origin. If this link gives you trouble let me know. Sometimes National Geographic lets me in and sometimes they want an email address. Not sure why.
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/...-china-origins-pandemic-science-health/#close

Some people think it originated in France. All governments involved in the Great War censored information about the pandemic. Germany, England, France, the US etc. Spain was neutral so the press there was given more freedom to report on it. Since Spain was where most heard about it first and death was reported there while covered up elsewhere, the name Spanish Flu stuck.

 

Honestly, I don't believe it matters what studies have shown because people are going to make conclusions based on their own personal experiences. For example, I know four people now (another one diagnosed yesterday since my post of knowing three people) and two of them wore masks and two of them didn't. All were quarantined by the health department and given no medications or follow-up. Hopefully, none of them will develop the long-term effects of lung and/or heart problems but only time will tell.

Personally, I cannot wait for this to be over.

 

I can only speak for Melbourne here, but our compliance had more to do with informed consent, coupled with the watched experienced of the nightmare unfolding around the globe. Many too, have a fairly sound understanding of science, and trust that the boffins were doing right by society. We also understand that the models used to predict the spread of the virus were based on 'worst case' scenarios and not fact.

 

It actually wasn’t anything we didn’t know about the cultural imperative to wear masks in Asian countries

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/06/200624082657.htm

https://www.popsci.com/story/health/covid-19-flatten-curve-success/

and I know this is far from scientific proof but you might enjoy Trevor Noah’s take on why Africa has done so well with dealing with Covid 19

 

I'm trying to imagine California and Texas with a 49% positivity rate.
No I'm not.

 

Very informative and helpful.

 

Yeh, it’s been “cool” to wear masks in Asia all along. Lots of reasons including allergies and pollution.

The video was interesting. Some good points that I agree with including the low median age of many countries ravaged by civil war and other diseases. A similar situation developed in Qatar. Very low median age so even with high infection rates there were low death rates. As far as infection rates in Africa, I doubt we have much idea of what they actually are. Not a lot of testing data.

I’ll have to read up on the parasite protection claim. I would guess from what I’ve learned about naive T cell concentrations, regulation of T cell and overall well regulated adaptive immune response being dependent on past exposure to pathogens there is something to it. Just the overwhelming exposure of third world infants and children to wide varieties of pathogenic and symbiotic gut biota sets them up for a better regulated immune response in adulthood than kids in sterile western civilizations.

I’ve heard the name Trevor Noah but didn’t know who he was. His obsession with race and racism is off putting but I enjoyed the content. I especially agree with the point we can learn from anyone or anything. We should not eschew information just because it doesn’t fit our preconceived biases or because it comes from a source associated with negative connotations in our own minds.

Do you think we really know what’s going on in Africa with C19? I did some research on Congo or whatever they are calling it these days a few months ago and it was pretty bad there then. I guess I’m a little skeptical of assuming everything is hunky dory in countries that are reporting very limited data or none at all. Perhaps I’m ignorant of a source of information others are privy to.

Oh, the one country locking down with no cases. If that included border closure it was brilliant. Imagine if everyone had done that when there was no or little community spread. Well, you don’t have to imagine....you kind of lived it yourself.

Anyway thanks for the links/video. It was fun.

 

Same could be said for Covid. It's never been proven to come from China. First recorded cases were in Wuhan but then again the first recorded cases of the Spanish flu were at an army base in the US.
My point was that it doesn't really matter where it came from, it's the reaction to it that is important.

 

Definitely masks protect the wearer more than 50%. The meta-analysis I've shown, with 29 papers, shows an average of 85% protection, all 29 being studies with coronaviruses. Granted, they were done (both in the community and healthcare settings) with N95s and surgical masks, not cloth masks. But I've also seen studies showing protection above 50% for cloth masks as long as they have at least two layers; better if inside the two layers there is a pocket for a HEPA filter or a coffee filter. The ones that are below that are single layer cloth masks, bandanas, and neck goiters.

Not to forget, a good N95 with good seal protects, as its name indicates, at least 95% and up to 98% in tests with particulates of 0.1 micron (due to Brownian Motion, particulates of 0.1 micron are paradoxically easier to filter out than 0.3; the mask needs to pass NIOSH's standards of 95% for 0.3 because 0.3, not being subject to Brownian Motion, is the MPP, or Maximum Penetration Particulate - lay people assume that a smaller particulate would penetrate more but it's not the case), while N100s protect 99.7%. I'm aware that the general population doesn't have N100s (my wife and I have some and now that the pandemic is so bad, we're wearing them preferentially) but many at least do have N95s. Hopefully they know how to test the seal. But again, without an educational campaign these things get iffy pretty fast; masks don't protect or don't protect nearly as well if worn incorrectly.

An educational campaign should encourage people to dump single layer cloth masks, bandanas, and gaiters. They should also teach the difference between flimsy facemasks not rated for healthcare, and ASTM levels 2 or 3 facemasks which do have blown melt layers that are much more efficacious in filtrating out particulates of 0.3 micron. A campaign should teach the simple technique of enhancing the seal with three interlaced rubber bands. So much could be done with good educational campaigns... shame that we never had any. At least, like I said elsewhere, they are planning an educational campaign for the vaccines.

Every time I see data showing that "masks don't work" I roll my eyes. These should be titled "the wrong masks worn the wrong way don't work." Because the right ones worn the right way definitely do.

 

Good for you. We Americans with our anti-science stance are now officially the stupidest people on Earth.

 

Sigh... another conspiracy theorist saying that the virus was intentionally spread... Although the Admin of this site says that such posts are NOT to be posted here, but rather, in the Conspiracy Theory subforum... I wish such posts got moved to that forum every time they surfaced, according to the Admin's own wish and rule.

And although this has been debunked by genomic sequencing of the virus. And now, the virus was found in Barcelona, Spain, on March 12, 1919, nine months before it surfaced in China. It may not even have originated in China.

Yes, every hour in the US lots of Americans die from heart disease and stroke... but the Covid-19 deaths are not INSTEAD of, but IN ADDITION TO, and if they were at least in part avoidable by better management, our leaders (in both parties) are indeed partially responsible for avoidable deaths.