Please explain the Coronavirus. Is it that deadly or not?

Discussion in 'Coronavirus Pandemic Discussions' started by I justsayin, Mar 10, 2020.

PF does not allow misinformation. However, please note that posts could occasionally contain content in violation of our policies prior to our staff intervening. We urge you to seek reliable alternate sources to verify information you read in this forum.

  1. bigfella

    bigfella Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 15, 2016
    Messages:
    7,548
    Likes Received:
    8,742
    Trophy Points:
    113
    You genuinely don't have the first clue what you are talking about, do you. If you did you wouldn't be asking about dead bats. Clearly you just make stuff up to suit your prejudices, which helps explain why you refuse to admit you are wrong. A perspective constructed independent of factual data is basically immune to it.

    Now, run along and do a bit of research on this while the adults talk.
     
    Montegriffo and ronv like this.
  2. Montegriffo

    Montegriffo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2017
    Messages:
    10,675
    Likes Received:
    8,947
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Bats, being the only mammal which can fly (rather than just glide like flying foxes) has a really high metabolic rate. Up to 40 times that of humans. Scientists who study bats think this extraordinary metabolic rate means that they can carry a large number of infections without becoming ill. They are the perfect carriers for viruses and bacterial diseases and keeping them alive in cramped conditions in markets in close proximity with other animals and humans is asking for trouble. Faeces and other bodily fluids can transmit the illness to other species without any need to eat them.
    So in answer to your question about where the dead bats are I can only tell you that there doesn't need to be any for them to have been the cause of this outbreak.
    Whether you understand and take this information on board is up to you but most people will not be impressed by your need to make this a conspiracy theory about bio-labs and escaped bio-weapons.
    If I were you I'd quit while I was behind...
     
    Last edited: Mar 14, 2020
    Badaboom, bigfella and ronv like this.
  3. Sandy Shanks

    Sandy Shanks Banned

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2016
    Messages:
    26,679
    Likes Received:
    6,470
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I'm just going by the numbers, not what people are saying or projections or graphs, etc.

    This has been going on since January. In the U.S., population, 327 million, weeks and weeks of testing, there are 2700 confirmed cases of covid-19 and 58 deaths.

    Those numbers are no more serious than the common cold, which I assert covid-19 is and we are overreacting.
     
  4. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2018
    Messages:
    20,312
    Likes Received:
    8,774
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    How many cases do you think we will have by this time next year?
     
  5. bigfella

    bigfella Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 15, 2016
    Messages:
    7,548
    Likes Received:
    8,742
    Trophy Points:
    113
    The US had conducted about 13,000 tests as of Friday. Italy has conducted 86,000 & Sth Korea 250,000. The truth is that you have no idea how serious this is right now because there is not enough data. Maybe it won't get much worse, maybe it will. Things didn't look that bad in Italy 2 weeks ago, now there are over 1000 dead.
     
    ronv likes this.
  6. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2013
    Messages:
    59,943
    Likes Received:
    16,458
    Trophy Points:
    113
    There certainly has NOT been "weeks and weeks of testing".

    I would recommend listening to experts in contagious disease in terms of how growth rate works and how to slow it when there are no vaccines or treatments available.
     
  7. mitchscove

    mitchscove Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 4, 2016
    Messages:
    7,870
    Likes Received:
    4,479
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Italy is intimately tied to China over our objections and objections of the rest of the EU. Why we had no mass testing 7 years after H1N1 probably explains why Trump agreed with Bolton to get rid of the pandemic group. Isolating the US early on is responsible for our low number of infections. It's easy to test people for death. We know that number COLD!!
     
  8. Lee S

    Lee S Moderator Staff Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 20, 2012
    Messages:
    10,649
    Likes Received:
    2,624
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I thought it would be pretty easy to find out what the actual death rate is for the coronavirus. It isn't straightforward at all. Since the City of Wuhan seems to have hit the peak and is now on the downside of the normal course of a virus spread, I would think it would be informative to look at what happened there. It is important to take any statistics from China with a healthy dose of suspicion so use the official numbers at your own peril.

    Wuhan has a population of over 11.9 million people. The official death toll is 2,233 on February 21st. This is the most recent article I can find that gives some actual numbers.

    https://www.thehindu.com/news/inter...oll-in-china-touches-2200/article30877495.ece

    This works out to a death rate 0.01876% which is a pretty minuscule number when compared with the flu. There was some reporting that as high as 70% of the population of Wuhan were in contact with the coronavirus. Because the coronavirus kills mostly those with compromised respiratory systems, it is important to realize that Wuhan has some pretty horrific air pollution and the rate of smoking for males in Wuhan is close to 25%. This would tend to suggest that the death rate in the United States, where the air is much cleaner and the smoking rate is around 17%, should be much lower than the already pretty low rate of death in China.

    Although 2,233 deaths in a city of 11.9 million may seem like a lot, it is a whole lot lower when compared to the flu. In the United States, the death toll from the flu is around 80,000. This works out to a death rate of 0.0240% or roughly 128% of the death rate in Wuhan.

    This seems to indicate that the panic and hsteria from the coronavirus is being blown way out of proportion.

    That more or less leaves us with the question of why the panic?
     
    557 likes this.
  9. Montegriffo

    Montegriffo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2017
    Messages:
    10,675
    Likes Received:
    8,947
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    What you have to ask yourself is if this virus is not serious at all and it is just a media induced panic why are so many countries shutting down businesses, mass gatherings, sporting events and travel?
    Why would they be damaging their own economies and risking a worldwide recession if the death rates are so insignificant?
    Do you really think that governments all around the globe are so weak that they let an over reacting media cause them so much damage?
    Are all of the experts and advisors also making a mountain out of a molehill?
     
  10. Lee S

    Lee S Moderator Staff Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 20, 2012
    Messages:
    10,649
    Likes Received:
    2,624
    Trophy Points:
    113
    The calls to authority in the form of health experts is pretty disturbing. Are these the same experts who made such a big deal about:

    SARS
    Asian Bird Flu
    The norovirus
    H1N1
    Legionaire's disease
    Swine Flu
    Ebola
    Anthrax
    Mad Cow Disease
    Radiation Exposure due to cell phones
    Citrus Aurantium

    And while we are at it, why not include the millions of deaths that never came from:

    African Killer Bees
    Fire ants
    Endemic homegrown terrorism
    Y2K

    and let's not forget the Earth passing through the tail of Halley's Comet.

    Sure, they were wrong the last 20 times they predicted the end of humanity, but even a broken clock is correct twice a day.
    At some point, wise people are going to stop be stampeded by the demonstrably ludicrous prognostications by experts. I would hope everyone takes a close look at the track record of the experts and instead of relying on these soothsayers wannabes and, rely upon their own minds. If you hear ridiculous predictions of tens of millions of deaths (I heard the figure 22 million deaths in the United States alone.) then break out your calculator and do some research and analyze the math on your own. I am willing to bet anyone a months paycheck that the death toll in the United States will be closer to 22 than to 22 million.
     
  11. Montegriffo

    Montegriffo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2017
    Messages:
    10,675
    Likes Received:
    8,947
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    With all those other crisis that you listed how many times did governments take the same drastic measures that they are taking now?
    Do you really think that nations around the world would risk a worldwide recession on a whim or because of media induced panic?
     
  12. Thedimon

    Thedimon Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2018
    Messages:
    12,121
    Likes Received:
    8,714
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    That’s what is happening now.
     
  13. Montegriffo

    Montegriffo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2017
    Messages:
    10,675
    Likes Received:
    8,947
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Why didn't it happen to the same extent with all the other health scares mentioned?
    Any sensible person might conclude that this is more serious.
     
  14. Lee S

    Lee S Moderator Staff Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 20, 2012
    Messages:
    10,649
    Likes Received:
    2,624
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Y2K was a ludicrous panic attack in which the government recommended such silliness as stocking up on bottled water as if gravity fed water distribution systems would somehow collapse because supposedly Y2K would somehow shut down gravity. And by the way, thanks for using the word drastic. It is so fitting in terms of a cold that so far has proven to be less problematic than the normal flu.

    Apparently the answer to that question is an unqualified 'yes'.
     
  15. EyesWideOpen

    EyesWideOpen Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Mar 1, 2013
    Messages:
    4,743
    Likes Received:
    2,541
    Trophy Points:
    113
    You didn't read or comprehend a single thing I said.
     
  16. Robert E Allen

    Robert E Allen Banned

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2018
    Messages:
    12,041
    Likes Received:
    5,750
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male

    This is true the less time our kids spend in the public school system the better off they will be.
     
    WillReadmore and Ddyad like this.
  17. Ddyad

    Ddyad Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 17, 2015
    Messages:
    53,493
    Likes Received:
    25,458
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Yes, this would be the perfect time to liquidate the massive education boondoggle and transfer the revenue to the productive working class. Much of it should go into vested individual education accounts for parents and guardians of students to use to hire independent educators once they are liberated from the corrupt, dangerous failed system we have now.
     
  18. squidward

    squidward Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 23, 2009
    Messages:
    37,112
    Likes Received:
    9,515
    Trophy Points:
    113
    If you're old, frail and sick, prone to getting knocked off by common illnesses, it is dangerous to you. But then again, life is dangerous to you.
     
    Ddyad likes this.
  19. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2013
    Messages:
    59,943
    Likes Received:
    16,458
    Trophy Points:
    113
    True - surely this is the best approach.

    What they do out of school is important, too. The idea that all across America K-12 kids will be sitting in their homes and apartments. Plus, those on food programs, etc. still need help.

    Even my 1.5 year old granddaughter goes stir crazy when restricted to home.
     
  20. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2013
    Messages:
    59,943
    Likes Received:
    16,458
    Trophy Points:
    113
    We all need to try to stay out of our hospitals.

    They are already filling up, needing scarce resources (like ventilators, beds, staff) in order to come through this.

    Those in the hospitals are NOT just those in at risk groups. Those not in at risk groups are less likely to show up in mortality stats, but that doesn't mean won't need serious medical attention if infected.

    If our hospitals get swamped, they will have to start making "death pannel" decisions.

    If you can't accept what Trump, your governor, and the CDC says, how about looking up what Taylor Swift says.
     
  21. squidward

    squidward Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 23, 2009
    Messages:
    37,112
    Likes Received:
    9,515
    Trophy Points:
    113
    pleas give bed census data to support your hospitals filing up claim
     
  22. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2013
    Messages:
    59,943
    Likes Received:
    16,458
    Trophy Points:
    113
    https://www.seattletimes.com/seattl...rains-seattle-areas-capacity-to-deliver-care/

    https://www.modernhealthcare.com/ho...rea-healthcare-workers-test-positive-covid-19

    https://www.vox.com/policy-and-poli...onavirus-covid-19-us-cases-health-care-system

    https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/

    Nobody has exact counts, as hospitals are digging to turn new areas into beds for COVID treatment, suspending surgery that isn't absolutely required (which has included cancer surgery), looking for equipment (ventilators, etc.), watching staff who have become exposed drop out.

    Hospitals ARE an issue - bed count is an issue, but NOT the only one limit they face.
     
  23. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2013
    Messages:
    59,943
    Likes Received:
    16,458
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Y2K was headed off by a massive software effort that did not initially seem likely to be successful. Taking no other action would have been grossly irresponsible.

    So, you believe in gravity! How do you think water gets into water towers? Do you even know WHY we have water towers??

    How about listening to experts?
     
    Montegriffo likes this.
  24. squidward

    squidward Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 23, 2009
    Messages:
    37,112
    Likes Received:
    9,515
    Trophy Points:
    113
    There are more rhinovirus patients in hospitals then there are coronavius.
    Nothing is filled up
     
    Last edited: Mar 16, 2020
  25. Space_Time

    Space_Time Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 24, 2015
    Messages:
    12,506
    Likes Received:
    1,978
    Trophy Points:
    113
    is this happening in the Islamic world or not:

     

Share This Page