Please explain the Coronavirus. Is it that deadly or not?

Discussion in 'Coronavirus Pandemic Discussions' started by I justsayin, Mar 10, 2020.

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  1. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    We're seeing cases of cancer surgery being put off.

    And, hospitals are emptying beds in order to handle COVID19 influx. Seattle is putting off all surgeries that can be delayed.

    Let's remember that experts say we are NOT yet at the point of most exposures yet - even if everyone follows reccommendations.

    Having hospitals totally full would be an Italy sized disaster. Not being there yet doesn't mean we're OK.
     
    Last edited: Mar 16, 2020
  2. Aquarius

    Aquarius Well-Known Member

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    It is less deadly than the flu but is made by Chinese or USA gov... it is not the virus itself that is dangerous but the deep state
     
  3. squidward

    squidward Well-Known Member

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    It's been here for at least 46 days, spreading exponentially. It is everywhere now. There has to be millions infected. No way around it. The hospitals are not stacking up.
     
    Last edited: Mar 16, 2020
  4. Montegriffo

    Montegriffo Well-Known Member

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    This post and posts like it are not going to age well.
     
  5. squidward

    squidward Well-Known Member

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    You think there aren't millions infected with virus across the country?
     
  6. Aquarius

    Aquarius Well-Known Member

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    It’s not that deadly and Trump is doing amazing work preventing it from spreading
     
  7. Montegriffo

    Montegriffo Well-Known Member

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    I have no idea and neither do you. Your country has been painfully slow in understanding the necessity to test for the disease.
    No healthcare system in the world has the spare capacity needed to cope with a pandemic though and in a month's time when the US is overwhelmed your previous post will be shown to not have aged well.
     
  8. squidward

    squidward Well-Known Member

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    You dont get a global pandemic without tens of millions infected.
     
  9. squidward

    squidward Well-Known Member

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    I don't think anyone can stop the spread to be honest. But there are no doubt tens of millions infected against about 7000 deaths, mostly in the aged sick and frail population
     
    Last edited: Mar 16, 2020
  10. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    I gave multiple cites strongly disputing your contention.

    And, you have cited NOTHING on the subject.
     
  11. squidward

    squidward Well-Known Member

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    Cities disputing what?
    What are total number of documented cases?
     
  12. Lee S

    Lee S Moderator Staff Member Past Donor

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    In my state, the vast majority of water systems are strictly gravity fed with water from mountain reservoirs pressurizing the system with hydraulic actuators powered by pressurized water which reduce pressure. It was strictly a hydro-mechanical system and wasn't computerized at all. Water stored in water towers from other sources are almost always delivered from wells or reservoirs with electrically controlled pumps which are not computerized. The power grid in the year 2000 was run with industrial microprocessors run by machine language which had nothing to do with Y2K. Y2K turned out to be nothing because it always was nothing. The only thing that was even remotely irresponsible was the media efforts to scare the citizenry with a grievous threat which never existed.

    Repeatedly crying wolf is also grossly irresponsible. If the government deliberately wrecks the economy and the corona virus causes fewer deaths than the 80,000 a year due to the flu, then the credibility of supposed experts will forever be undermined.
     
  13. Montegriffo

    Montegriffo Well-Known Member

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    Is that the acceptable number of people who you are prepared to let die in order to save the economy then? So long as it's less than 80k everything is an overreaction?
     
  14. Lee S

    Lee S Moderator Staff Member Past Donor

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    You are asking a loaded question and assuming I have said things which I have not said. The question isn't whether I feel there is an acceptable number of deaths. People die. This is just a natural part of life. If they don't die from the flu, then they will die from something else. This is a 100% guarantee. Since 80,000 people die during the normal flu season, year in and year out, as a practical matter, then that seems like a reasonable guage of discerning where extreme measures should be taken.

    So instead of asserting cold hearted attributions on my part, I think the wiser question is whether it is more acceptable to have 80,000 deaths (as is the normal course of events with a flu season) or 80,000 deaths with a wrecked economy. Which do you think is the better choice?
     
  15. Montegriffo

    Montegriffo Well-Known Member

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    Do you believe that the measures being taken will not save lives?
    How much is a life worth?
     
  16. Lee S

    Lee S Moderator Staff Member Past Donor

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    You didn't answer my question. Is it better to have 80,000 deaths in a normal flu season or 80,000 deaths and a wrecked economy? Which is the wiser coarse of action? Those appear to be the two choices we can choose from.
     
  17. Montegriffo

    Montegriffo Well-Known Member

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    It's not a fair question.
    These are going to be deaths on top of the usual flu deaths not instead of them.
    No one can even predict how many deaths will result from CV19.
    If the priority should be the economy then how many lives should we be prepared to risk in order to save it?
     
  18. Heartburn

    Heartburn Well-Known Member

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    Which flu do you get your numbers from, the ones that have become common or the odd new one that crops up from time to time? This is a new cold virus.
     
  19. Lee S

    Lee S Moderator Staff Member Past Donor

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    And the questions you asked me are fair? You are asking me to give a dollar value on the cost of a life and I am not willing to do that. I am asking you to make an honest assessment. If a life has infinite value, then shouldn't we self-quarantine every single flu season? Or how about a government enforced quarantine every single flu season? Because, after all, we are not talking 80,000 flu deaths a year from the flu, we are now talking 80,000 flu deaths on top of deaths by Covid-19. If Covid-19 kills only 8,000 people in this country or roughly one-tenth the normal flu mortality, then are draconian measures warranted? Shouldn't we be taking ten times as many mandatory restrictions for the normal flu season if the normal flu is ten times as deadly as Covid-19? What price do you put on your own freedom?
     
  20. fmw

    fmw Well-Known Member

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    It would be a deadly virus if it killed healthy people. That appears not to be the case. Some die from complications generated by the virus but it is not accurate to call it a deadly virus. As an example, it is a pulmonary virus. It makes it hard for people to breathe regularly. A patient with emphysema, for instance, could die from the emphysema because the virus affected the patient's lung function that is already compromised. Dangerous? Sure for some people. But not deadly in the general sense.

    I'm 75 years old. I have heart disease, cancer in remission and poor kidney function. Next week I'm getting surgery for an aortic aneurysm. I'm not worried about the corona virus at all. I have plenty of other things I could worry about if I were the worrying type. The hysteria is from people who really have nothing to worry about. Follow the advice provided by the medical community and go on with life.
     
  21. Montegriffo

    Montegriffo Well-Known Member

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    • Insulting or personally attacking other posters (Rule 2)
    There is a vaccine for the flu. There is no reason for 80,000 people to die from the flu each year. The figure here in the UK is far lower even allowing for population sizes as we vaccinate everyone over 60 who wants it free of charge.
    There is no vaccine for CV19 yet and there is no idea how many it will kill before it's over.
    The comparison between the two illnesses is disingenuous. I might as well compare CV19 deaths to gun deaths or car crashes.
    The point is that governments around the world have been advised that this is dangerous enough to take drastic measures which will have serious economic consequences <Rule 2>
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 17, 2020
  22. Sandy Shanks

    Sandy Shanks Banned

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    This is all very confusing, and I don't make the claim that I am right. I am asserting that covid-19 is a new virus for a very old disease -- the common cold. I am suggesting that the numbers in the U.S., which you ignored, bear me out. So do the numbers in Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Japan.

    This began three months ago in January. According to the CDC, in a country with 327 million people, there are today 4226 cases and 75 deaths. Those numbers have a very close resemblance to the common cold. Cases in U.S. | CDC

    It is interesting that those who disagree with my suppositions avoid those numbers and duration and go straight to Italy, the absolute worst case scenario.

    Naysayers, which would include you and the government, use the worst example, Italy, and we have no idea what went on in Italy before all this began. We do know Italy has the oldest population in Europe. Maybe Italy grouped all the sick, old people together and the contagious virus went quickly from one oldie to another oldie. I don't know.

    In Italy, a country with one of the world’s oldest populations, a March 4 analysis by the national health institute found that of the 105 patients who died from the virus, the average age was 81. This put a 20-year gap between the average age of people who tested positive for the virus and the deceased.

    Coronavirus and age: Why Covid-19 is so dangerous for older adults - Vox

    All I am doing is asking if the cure is worst than the disease because the repercussions of the cure are horrendous, loss of all diversionary entertainment, loss of retirement savings, loss of investments, loss of jobs, and recession.

    All because of a disease that bears a strong resemblance to the common cold.

    I am rather certain that if the U.S. government provided the statistics of the rhinovirus (the common cold) last year, those statistics would be similar to covid-19 today.
     
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  23. Lee S

    Lee S Moderator Staff Member Past Donor

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    I like your analysis of this. My argumet is that the incomplete statistical set that we are working with is that death rates are skewed to the high end because there are probably (but no one knows for certain) a very large number of infected people who are completely asymptomatic or at the very least have such mild symptoms that they take no notice of it. If that is the case, there is a high probablility that Covid-19 death rates are grossly exagerated and the orders to place most citizens under house arrest are completely unwarranted when compared to the actual threat.
     
  24. Montegriffo

    Montegriffo Well-Known Member

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    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
     
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  25. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    The big issues had to do with payroll, cash registers, credit cards, business communications (such as order processing), federal, state and local taxes, billing systems, etc.

    And, every business needed to make assessments and be prepared. Many of these businesses depended on legacy software that was no longer even being sold - meaning that asking for an update was not possible.
     
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