Please explain the Coronavirus. Is it that deadly or not?

Discussion in 'Coronavirus Pandemic Discussions' started by I justsayin, Mar 10, 2020.

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  1. Thedimon

    Thedimon Well-Known Member

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    Absolute majority of Coronavirus cases have very mild symptoms.
    Who goes to a doctor over a mild cold?
    There are a lot more Coronavirus infections out there than what is known. I bet millions already had it.
     
  2. Lee S

    Lee S Moderator Staff Member Past Donor

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    You are correct about that, but the panic was pretty pervasive and media ninnies were questioning whether traffic lights would work, if the power grid would survive, if sewage systems continue to operate and a whole host of other silly things which demonstrated a complete lack of knowledge as to how public utilities actually functioned. The reason I brought this up was that it was, in my mind, a pretty clear and demonstrable display that panic and hysteria were going to be a serious issue in future media fed frenzies. And it appears that from some of the responses by the government, that the lessons that should have been learned from the supposed Y2K crisis were never learned.

    As an example, the City of Portland has banned any police actions which do not involve the potential loss of life. I guess property is now only being protected in the City of Portland by the Second Amendment and the Second Amendment alone. Is this a good thing? Probably not. Is there any evidence whatsoever that allowing police officers to do their job will increase the spread of Covid-19? No. Nothing at all. So is this government restriction on the police a panicked over-reaction? Probably. When bodies start stacking up because citizens are making an effort to protect their own property than it will be fairly obvious to everyone that the government acted rashly in a knee-jerk fashion in order to maintain the illusion that the government is doing something useful.
     
  3. Sandy Shanks

    Sandy Shanks Banned

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    Thank you.
     
  4. crank

    crank Well-Known Member

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    Could this thread please be moved to the COVID forum?

    Some of us would like to avoid constant bombardment :)
     
  5. Sandy Shanks

    Sandy Shanks Banned

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    The testing has been insufficient, and there are probably a lot more cases of coronavirus in the U.S. than is being reported. That said, the number of deaths accorded covid-19 is a relative certainty.

    That number, according to CNN, has finally reached a hundred. Think of it, within a population of 327 million in three months this "deadly" disease finally reached the pinnacle of 100 deaths! Wow! Double wow in terms of really weird incredulity!

    Because of 100 deaths and based on projections and prophesy, the U.S. government has destroyed our once powerful economy, caused the loss of billions in savings accounts for millions of Americans, and caused the loss of countless jobs as America moves from the most powerful economy in Earth's history to a recession or worse. To counteract this, the Trump administration wants to hand out one trillion dollars in welfare to Americans -- welfare to compensate for the loss of a job.

    All of this caused by a government that is reacting to what might happen.
     
  6. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    I do not see panic or hysteria in that at all. Those are all very reasonable questions from a public that does not have informattion concerning how all our systems work.

    In fact, I'd suggest your assumptions about Portland are not even slightly realistic.


    One question I have is that polling seems to show that fewer Republicans believe actions specified by Trump should be followed - why is that? Is it because of the false information being propegated by outlets such as Fox (including Hannity), Rushbo, and the rest?
     
  7. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    It takes a few weeks for someone with COVID to actually die.

    This measure is a trailing indicator.

    And, the science of infection rates from a virus is well known. So, what is the justification for ignoring the science of how infection rates work?

    Finally, our death rate is being affected by the success of our healthcare system. BUT, that system is under huge duress and absoltuely CAN be overloaded. We're searching for retired doctors and other healthcare workers as cases mount and healthcare workers become exposed. We're seeing Trump saying the federal government won't be helping out with ventilators, which is key to surviving this lung disease.

    Failing to work against our healthcare system from becoming overloaded is about as STUPID a decisiion as one can possibly imagine.
     
  8. Sandy Shanks

    Sandy Shanks Banned

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    The number of people with the common cold caused by the coronavirus has grown to 5300 among 327 million people (U.S.) in three months. We are still waiting for an age breakdown on corona-19 deaths in the U.S. All countries are extremely weak on demographics of the pandemic although there is this:

    In Italy, a country with one of the world’s oldest populations, a March 4 analysis by the national health institute found that of the 105 patients who died from the virus, the average age was 81. This put a 20-year gap between the average age of people who tested positive for the virus and the deceased.

    Coronavirus and age: Why Covid-19 is so dangerous for older adults - Vox

    Why are governments keeping vital information to themselves?

    A story on Fox News told us the number of tests in New York City and the number afflicted, but did not tell us how many had died. Is it possible that is because the number is miniscule? Yesterday, in a population of 8.6 million five had died of the coronavirus affliction. There was no data for today.

    CNN interviewed the governor of Rhode Island today. She reported that two more victims could be added to the list. She also reported that hundreds are being tested daily. No word on how many had died of the virus in R.I.
     
  9. Sandy Shanks

    Sandy Shanks Banned

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    Think of it, within a population of 327 million in three months this "deadly" disease finally reached the pinnacle of 100 deaths!
     
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  10. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    There is absoluely nothing even slightly final about 100 deaths.

    Experts ALL suggest this idea of yours is utter crap.
     
  11. Montegriffo

    Montegriffo Well-Known Member

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    You are in for a big shock if you think 100 deaths is the pinnacle.
     
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  12. Sandy Shanks

    Sandy Shanks Banned

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    Again, you didn't properly read what I said.

    "Experts ALL suggest this idea of yours is utter crap." Yes, I know, but no one yet has question the numbers and the duration, including you. Nor has there been an explanation for the total absence of age data. The government doesn't want to tell us that.
     
  13. Sandy Shanks

    Sandy Shanks Banned

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    Did you say that with a straight face? I thought it was quite funny.
     
  14. Montegriffo

    Montegriffo Well-Known Member

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    It's pretty hilarious that you used the words finally and pinnacle in relation to 100 deaths.
    I'll revisit this post in a month to see how well it aged.
     
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  15. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    Good issue!!

    We have had no testing until now, and people are still being denied testing unless they are definitely sick or are healthcare workers. In some cases the person applying for testing has needed to be able to identify when they got exposed - a restriction that just reflects low testing capacity as of yet.

    I would hope that with broader testing that is coming we'll have more data.

    So far, experts have been more concerned about overwhelming healthcare than about death rate data.

    And, anyone who needs hospitalization, regardless of age/risk, adds to that problem.
     
  16. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Well-Known Member

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    I haven't read the posts in this thread, but my answer to the question posed in the OP is as follows: we still don't know for sure. In fact, its probably more useful to distinguish between people merely infected with the Covid-19 virus and those who have fallen ill from it. The number of people infected is probably very high, but low amounts of infections don't seem to cause more problems than the average cold or flu. But being exposed to higher dosages of the virus, sufficient to make you ill, does make for very frightening numbers when it comes to the mortality rate. Especially, among a certain subset of the population besides the elderly and those with compromised immune systems (who are always at greater risk from any virus).

    To understand the point I am making, you need to focus on one category which isn't sufficiently highlighted: concluded or closed cases. There is a lag time (perhaps even longer than the 7-14 days being advertised) between catching the virus and becoming ill (for those who end up becoming ill). There is also a lag time between becoming ill and either recovering or dying from it. The latter lag time (added on top of the lag time for becoming symptomatic) means that someone who tests positive will remain in the 'active' category for a while until they recover from the virus or become ill. The death rate in this category (closed or concluded cases) has been very high in Italy (which has a significant enough number for statistical purposes), has been moderately high in Iran (which also has a statistically significant number of closed cases), and has been even worse in the US and some other places whose numbers of closed cases are somewhat low to draw sweeping statistical conclusions.
     
  17. Sandy Shanks

    Sandy Shanks Banned

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    I assert that covid-19 is nothing more than a new virus for an old enemy of man -- the common cold. I further assert that the target of this new virus are the elderly with underlying sicknesses such as lung or heart disease. It is rare for people under the age of fifty to die from this virus, and 80% of those who have it do not know they have it. Many do not even have the symptoms of the common cold.

    There are today 116 deaths from covid-19 in the U.S. up from 105 from yesterday.

    In the three months since this began thousands of older people have died in the U.S. from various diseases. No doubt a small number were afflicted with the common cold caused by the coronavirus.

    I would estimate that number to be around 116.
     
  18. Sandy Shanks

    Sandy Shanks Banned

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    On average I watch 2 1/2 to 3 hours of news each day. An estimated 95% of the news these days concerns the ability of the government and the media to scare us citizens half to death with what they say will happen sometime in the future. The media stresses the anticipated shortage of hospital beds, ventilators, testing kits, swabs, masks, and other things. We are being told those afflicted with covid-19 will skyrocket and that the U.S. is where Italy was two weeks ago. The media says very little about about the successes in places like South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan, and elsewhere, successes we have a great chance of duplicating.

    Note to the media: The U.S. is not a third world country and we have the best health systems in the world.

    The media with all its great reporting on the coronavirus pandemic rarely mentions the death toll in the U.S., which stands at 135 after three months within a population of 327 million. Those who have died were in their 60s, 70s, 80s and 90s. The youngest were in their early or mid-50s. The victims had health problems and most were in nursing homes or other facilities. Here's what we know about the 100 coronavirus deaths in the US - CNN

    Little wonder why the media in its effort to create panic rarely mentions the miniscule death toll and the condition of the victims. We expect that older people with health problems will die from the complications caused by the common cold caused by the coronavirus.

    The point being, this pandemic does not affect the general population.

    The government and the media won't tells us that.

    Governor Cuomo of New York came on again today as he does everyday to gives us his dire report. We got the sad news of the lack of testing while the number of cases shot up because of increased testing, the future shortage of hospital beds, ventilators, etc., etc. the reader knows the drill. For the second day in a row -- I have been tracking Cuomo for two days -- Cuomo failed to mention how many had died in his state. He doesn't want us to know. That would ruin the message.

    As of two days ago (the latest report on the internet) with a population of 19.54 million, seven people in the state of New York have died of the coronavirus in three months. NY state deaths from coronavirus rises to seven - New York Daily News

    Yeah, Cuomo doesn't want you to know that.
     
  19. Sandy Shanks

    Sandy Shanks Banned

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    Update on post 318. A lot of good stuff there.
     
  20. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    Well, it's not the media that is coming up with this. They are reporting what experts are saying. Look at their sources.

    And, the death rate is not what the experts are worried about. They are worried about overwhelming our healthcare capacity.

    As CDC points out, our response has to be based on projections, NOT what is here.

    If we wait until it's here, then it is too late.

    This is the whole idea behinds social distancing. It's not curative (obviously) - it's based on what disease like this does in the future, with the future being better if we take action now.

    The NYTimes has a great article on this, with graphics showing what happens based on different rates of transmission. It shows how many hospital beds, ventilators, etc. vs. patients needing help in those scenarios.

    What we do can keep us from swamping our healthcare system.

    It also shows what is projected under other scenarios - where we're less great about social distancing, etc.

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/17/upshot/hospital-bed-shortages-coronavirus.html

    The NYTimes says they have dropped some of it's paywall for COVID. I can't tell, as have a subscription.
     
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  21. crank

    crank Well-Known Member

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    COULD THIS THREAD PLEASE BE MOVED TO THE COVID FORUM !

    There's a real problem with having the doom and gloom seep into every corner. It's really not good.
     
  22. Zorro

    Zorro Well-Known Member

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    MAYBE.

    “Widespread antibody testing will also reveal whether large numbers of mild infections have gone unnoticed. It would be great news if this is the case, allowing many to return to work and meaning that the infection fatality rate is lower than thought. Unfortunately, places like South Korea that have been doing lots of testing haven’t found vast numbers of mild cases.”​
     
  23. IranianStudent1

    IranianStudent1 Member

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    Worldometers says about one fifth of closed cases died worldwide, til now. So it is very dangerous, yes
     
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  24. IranianStudent1

    IranianStudent1 Member

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  25. Zorro

    Zorro Well-Known Member

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    UGH: Number of health care workers with coronavirus soars at Boston hospitals..

    “Hundreds of front-line Boston-area hospital workers have tested positive for coronavirus, with the number of reported cases skyrocketing in just a week. Last week, the total number of reported health care worker cases stood at 77. The reported number jumped to 342 this week.”​
     

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